The Cook Political Report moved the PA-12 congressional race from Solid D to Likely D on Tuesday.
The 12th District comprises part of both Allegheny and Westmoreland Counties and pits Democrat Summer Lee against Republican Mike Doyle.
Cook’s Dave Wasserman moved PA-12 into “Likely Democrat” territory, citing redistricting into more conservative Westmoreland County and reducing the Biden advantage from +30 to +20.
Lee, endorsed by Vermont senator Bernie Sanders, edged attorney Steve Irwin by a single percentage point in a tough primary. Doyle, a Plum councilman, shares the same name as the popular, moderate Democratic incumbent whose 18th District seat was redrawn.
Wasserman notes that typically Democrats would not need to break a sweat to win a House race in the city of Pittsburgh. But the progressive views of Lee, along with redistricting, name confusion among longtime Doyle voters, and strong headwinds against Dems in this cycle made him make the move.
The Cook Political Report provides non-partisan political analysis that is often utilized for political forecasting. The Report stated that it maintains its fall outlook of a GOP net gain of between 20 and 35 seats in the U.S. House.