While President Joe Biden continues to have less-than-impressive poll numbers in Pennsylvania, Sen. Bob Casey is not suffering the same fate, according to “The Swing State Project,” a collaboration between The Cook Political Report and two pollsters, Benenson Strategy Group (BSG) and GS Strategy Group.

In a survey of 730 likely voters in the Commonwealth, former President Donald Trump held a 41-37% advantage over Biden, while Robert F. Kennedy Jr. polled third with seven percent. When queried who they would select if they had to choose between the five candidates, Trump added to his lead by an additional percentage point. That difference shrinks to three points and within the +/-3.6% margin of error when respondents are given only two choices.

Casey has a double-digit advantage over Republican Dave McCormick, 46-36% with 10 percent undecided. That margin shrinks to eight points (49-41%) when leaners are included in the figures.

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The Pennsylvania race is not outside the norm, as other Democratic Senate candidates in Arizona, Michigan, Nevada and Wisconsin are not only outperforming Biden, but also leading their GOP opponents by anywhere from 2-12 points.

Going deeper in the numbers, incumbent Democrats in Nevada, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin are running the farthest ahead of the President, while those Democrats running for open seats in Arizona and Michigan have marginally better numbers than Biden.

For those surveyed who think the American economy is getting worse, Biden is losing by significant margins (-44) but Casey is not being painted with the same brush, trailing by minus-30 points. The three-term Senator from Scranton trails his opponent by 42 points among those who disapprove of Biden’s handling of the economy, while the President is at minus-59.

Among those who believe that Trump will try to ban abortion, Casey outruns Biden, +45 to +34, while those who believe Trump will try to become a dictator give Biden a resounding +78 to plus-72 for Casey. Democrats have also repeatedly hit McCormick for comments he made in a 2022 Senate primary debate saying he only supported exceptions for the life of the mother, and not for rape or incest.

“At this point, the race for president is a referendum on the economy and Biden’s handling of it, and not on Donald Trump’s many liabilities,” said Amy Walter, editor-in-chief of the CPR. “The contests at the Senate level, however, are the opposite. Democratic Senate candidates aren’t paying as big a price for voters’ economic frustrations, while Republicans have not created separation between themselves and Trump’s most problematic positions.”

And in a time when split-ticket voting is becoming more and more rare in national contests, this could bode well for Democrats. In 2016, every Senate race went the same way as the presidential outcome, while only Rep. Susan Collins among Republicans was able to win reelection as Biden carried Maine.

In collaboration with Cook Political Report and GS Strategy Group, BSG conducted polling in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin among likely 2024 voters from May 6-13, 2024. Surveys were conducted in English using SMS-to-Web and online panel methodologies.

In the aggregate, 3,969 likely voters across the 7 states completed the survey, for a margin of sampling error of ±1.6 at the 95% confidence level. The full dataset included:

527 likely 2024 voters in Arizona (±4.3)
600 likely 2024 voters in Georgia (±4.0)
606 likely 2024 voters in Michigan (±4.0)
402 likely 2024 voters in Nevada (±4.9)
601 likely 2024 voters in North Carolina (±4.0)
730 likely 2024 voters in Pennsylvania (±3.6)
503 likely 2024 voters in Wisconsin (±4.4)

For the purposes of this research, likely voters were defined as anyone who is currently registered to vote and has voted in at least 1 of the last 4 presidential or midterm elections, or registered to vote after the 2020 general election for president.