Critz Poll: Critz 46, Rothfus 36

An internal poll from Mark Critz’s campaign shows the incumbent Congressman with a 10- point lead over opponent Keith Rothfus.

His high-profile primary victory over fellow Rep. Jason Altmire apparently boosted Critz’s name ID: 57 percent of voters surveyed had an opinion of him (38 percent positive, 19 percent negative). The residual name ID from Rothfus’s own race against Altmire, in 2010 when he lost by 1.4 percent, has faded a bit more. Just 21 percent of voters had an opinion of Rothfus (14 percent positive, 7 percent negative).

In the Johnstown area of the district currently represented by Critz (about 30 percent of the district overall) he holds a 60 to 34 percent lead.

In a press release announcing the poll, Critz credited his policy positions.

“These results show that Western Pennsylvania voters know that I made creating jobs my top priority in Congress,” Critz said. “They know that I am fighting to stop China from manipulating their currency to get an unfair advantage over Pennsylvania companies and to cut regulations on small businesses, and I oppose bad trade deals because they will outsource jobs.”

Rothfus’ Campaign Manager Jon Raso said that having only a 10-point lead is nothing for the Critz campaign to brag about.

“To be under 50 percent and have only a 10-point margin in his own poll spells doom for the current liberal Congressman from Johnstown.  As voters continue…to feel the resulting pain of 40 straight months of over 8 percent unemployment…Keith Rothfus has will close the margin rather quickly, and Congressman Critz won’t be able to salvage his failing political career.”

The 12th district race promises to be one of if not the top congressional contest in PA in 2012. Both campaign committees have set aside millions of dollars in TV airtime for the fall campaign.

Critz, of Cambria County, was a long time staffer to the late Rep. John Murtha; Rothfus is an attorney in Allegheny County.

Per usual, PoliticsPA advises that internal polls be taken with a grain of salt. Typically, campaigns release their numbers to boost fundraising and perceptions of their viability. In this case, the poll could help change the subject away from Critz’s hesitance to get too close to President Obama, highlighted by the news that he will not attend the Democratic National Convention.

The poll was conducted from June 13 to 15 by Global Strategy Group. They surveyed 402 likely voters and balanced to obtain reflective geographic and demographic proportions. The full polling memo is here (PDF).

5 Responses

  1. The fact that Rothfus has 36% of the vote but inherited 70% of the District speaks volumes–this guys has been a professional candidate in a vast majority of the District AND had the advantage of a bloody primary, yet he can’t garner support. It’s going to take a lot of outside $$$ for Rothfus to narrow this margin.

  2. Come November Rothfus will be getting on with his life’s work – having his wealthy wife take care of him.

  3. Dear Dr. Raso: You are a man of science. When is Keith the Candidate going to come clean about his work for Faith Healer Pat Robertson, his Beltway FEMA Katrina work, and his support of the Ryan Budget Plan that destroys Medicare?

  4. Probably most of the people polled were from Johnstown. I find it hard to believe so many of the people don’t know Rothfus, since he ran in 2/3 of the district last cycle.

Comments are closed.

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