Crystal Ball: 38% of PA GOP Primary Electorate Will be White Evangelicals

White evangelicals are a major portion of the GOP presidential primary electorate.

Associate Editor of Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball Geoffrey Skelley wanted to find just how large the proportion of white evangelicals in the GOP presidential primary is from state to state.

He produced the map presented below:

Crystal Ball Map

Skelley’s major take-away was that most of the states with heavy white evangelical electorates vote early in the primary season. We can determine through his statistics, though, a number of conclusions specific to Pennsylvania.

For instance, several of the biggest states in the country (like California and New York) have a small percentage of white evangelicals. As a result, of all the states where white evangelicals represent 30% or more of the GOP electorate, Pennsylvania has the fifth-highest delegate total at 71. Texas (155), Florida (99), Georgia (76) and North Carolina (72) are the top four.

Additionally, Pennsylvania has the highest proportion of white evangelical voters of any primary or caucus taking place between March 15th’s Ohio primary to Indiana’s primary on May 3rd.

These two revelations mean that PA’s April 26nd primary could be a major contest if the GOP’s nomination contest drags on through the spring.

11 Responses

  1. I love all Jews with one exception: Self Hating Jews who hate Israel.There are times when I get mifefd with Israel and I’m certain that Israelis themselves grind their teeth from time-to-time. WHY Israel calls the Arabs around the country “Palestinians” is beyond my ability to understand. They have mislead the world that they are an ancient people who were living in the land when the Jews stole it…at least that is their BIG LIE.The name “Palestinians” was slapped on the Arabs by an Egyptian born individual: Arafat. And Israel RESPECTS THAT?Bah…humbug.

  2. Sad news, Evangelical Christians used to be thought of as charitable people who sacrifice their own well being for that of those in need. You know, like that Jesus guy. The problem is that the rapidly expanding, big business evangelical movement in this country runs against nearly every teaching of Christ. You have these grand beautiful churches, overpaid pastors who live lives of luxury off of their constituent’s contributions, and an overall culture of xenophobia against all who do not conform to their white, heterosexual, anti-intellectual standard.

  3. Observer,

    Sabato rates the Senate race as leans R based on Toomey’s incumbency and the general disarray of the D primary. He rates PA as leans D for the presidential race.

  4. As all of you self righteous, religiously intolerant and judgemental responders may like to remember… Bill Clinton described himself as an evangelical Christian. But I am sure you will dismiss his statement and create an excuse for him so he is not held accountable for anything he says.

  5. Yes jmarshak, they lifted themselves up out of the grave and walked into any voting precinct at random.

    They then proceeded to cut in line and wait for their name to be called so they could punch that stupid out-of-date piece of crap touch screen that needs to be re-calibrated at most voting polls just one more time! They couldn’t resist!

    What will you and the elephant psychos come up with next? :-/

  6. Expat, they didn’t leave – they got old and died. Replaced by younger smarter people – you know, Democrats.

  7. And this is why Sabato rates PA as Leans R?? Lolol… A minority sect of a minority party. Rally around Ben Carson – please!

  8. I wonder what the proportion was before the 2008 exodus of the registered Republicans in the Philly suburbs to the Democratic Party…

Comments are closed.

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