DCCC Chair Says House is in Play, Sees Gains in Pa.

BenLujan2016Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) Chair Ben Ray Luján said for the first time that the House is in play for Democrats to gain the majority, and sees Pennsylvania as one of the main places to gain seats.  

In a memo to committee staff, Luján touts internal DCCC polling that shows Democrats making gains in targeted districts, including some in Pennsylvania.  

“As you know, we need 24 seats to retake the majority. Our DCCC polling team and outside pollsters went into dozens of districts in the last few months to learn:Is the momentum real? Is it building to the point that we can win 24 seats and take back the House? The answer is yes,” the memo read.  

The polling Luján referenced included some Pennsylvania specific numbers.  

According to DCCC’s internal generic Republican versus generic Democrat polling in congressional districts there has been a swing in their favor in targeted seats.  In the 8th district, they show a swing from a -8 in their pre-2016 election poll, which is an eight point advantage for Republicans in the district, to a +3 for Democrats in their most recent poll. The 7th district shows a swing for the Democrats as well, from -9 to +1.

The memo also pointed to the job approval ratings of President Trump in Congressional Districts, including the 8th district, where 54% had a negative opinion of Trump’s job performance according to the DCCC’s internal polling.  

The DCCC is targeting four districts in Pennsylvania, three of which are in the Philadelphia suburbs.  They see the suburbs as where they are likely to pick up seats.  

In the memo, Luján touted the recruitment efforts of the DCCC including their efforts in Pennsylvania recruiting Chrissy Houlahan, who national Democrats have begun lining up behind in the 6th district.  

The National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC) pointed to the results in special elections across the country and the work of Pennsylvania’s Republicans.  

“Democrats are looking up at the scoreboard and Googling the conversion rate between moral victories and an actual vote in Congress. Meanwhile, Pennsylvania Republicans are delivering results for their districts,” NRCC spokesman Chris Martin said in an email.

26 Responses

  1. What many of us learned as a result of this last presidential election is that you cannot trust Donald Trump. All military veterans beware that your earned benefits are now in peril. There is no leadership within the GOP. What a disgrace that the cowards have left to take bother vacation- nothing has been accomplished since January 2017.
    I rest my case.

    1. Have you not seen the multiple pieces of legislation that have become law and President Trump’s Executive Orders that are taking care of our veterans. Unlike the previous administration, this President vowed to take care of our veterans and is now following through on those promises.

      1. President Trump has not signed any legislation which became law to benefit Veterans. He issued one executive order, which is not a law for accountability and protection of whistleblowers in the Department of Veterans Affairs. President Obama did very little to provide support for veterans, as well. An Executive Order is not a law, it is only a directive and can be revoked by a subsequent administration.



  3. If the DCCC has the 8th at a D+3 then the spread is really is Fitzpatrick by 8.

  4. I will only support ANY elected delegate that will vote for abolishing health insurance and vote for UNIVERSAL HEALTH CARE 111 WHICH THIS COUNTRY HAS NEEDED AS PER THE REST OF ALL ELECTIDED GOVERNMENTS ON THE FACE OF THIS GLOBE 11. IT IS PROVEN TO BE MORE FAIR, LESS EXPENSIVE AND BETTER FOR OVER 60 YEARS. Health care is a right in a well civilized, self governing nation.

  5. The DCCC chair is full of crap.
    “The 7th district shows a swing for the Democrats as well, from -9 to +1.”

    The DCCC and (the soon-to-be-failed) candidates for the 7th keep promoting the false meme that because Hillary won the district that the district is winnable for congress. First of all it COMPLETELY IGNORES Meehan winning by 20-points in the GOP direction with the same voters.

    But, even further than, many of the Dems who came out for Hillary and the moderate Dem-leaning Republicans and the independents in a presidential year vote ONLY in presidential years.

    Out of roughly 465,000 voters, about 390,000 turned out in Nov 2016. But, in that same district, turnout in 2014 was around 250,000. Those exrra, 140,000 voters who showed up in 2016 are more Dem than Rep

  6. Ossoff was hurt by not living in the Congressional District he was running in. Republicans hit him effectively about this fact. Interesting how most of these supposedly great Dem recruits in PA don’t live in the districts they are running for either!

    1. The not-living-in-the-district does look bad to voters. But, in Ossoff’s case, the GOP still outspent him by millions in a district that was heavily Republican.

      The outcome wasn’t really much of a surprise.

        1. Ossoff’s campaign itself had more money than her campaign, but when you take into account the spending by outside groups for her like, the RNC, NRCC, America First Policies, U.S. Chamber of Commerce, and non-federal money to the local Georgia GOP political machine that doesn’t show up, it was pretty close to the same for each.

          I think the GOP (and groups supporting the GOP candidate, Handel) spent a little more (though not much more).

          Even if Ossoff’s supporters spent a few million more (out of $50 or $60 million for both), my point remains that it was a heavily GOP district, where the GOP had to put in a lot of money for a 4-point victory, given their much bigger historical performance.

          1. So this proves you’re talking from your back side David. When Paul makes a 12 word comment you go from OSSOFF WAS OUTSPENT BY MILLIONS OF DOLLARS..to…It was pretty close to the same for each. Think it is HILARIOUS how this race was the biggest deal in the world to Dems and then, of course, when they lose (seems to happen a lot, maybe stop lying to your people and they’ll vote for the whole party?) it was never supposed to be a competitive seat, the Republicans were always going to win. Blah, Blah, Blah. Hillary was supposed to win too, but when you work hard at something you get results. It is high time the Democrats either get with it, or get lost.

          2. Danny Boy-

            Nice try. At the time of my post, all the reports I had seen were that he was outspent. There is a difference between how much each candidate raised for their campaigns and how much was spend overall on each side. The reports are still mixed because the spending by the outside groups is not completely accounted for.

            I never expected Ossoff to win, given it was a heavily GOP district and the GOP was pouring in tens of millions of their own.

  7. The race in Georgia’s 6th Congressional District saw the Democrats raise at least 24 million, much of it from out of state. They still lost.

    When next year’s elections roll around (a little over 16 months from now), the Democrats will need to have enough cash on hand to be competitive in the 24 seats they want to take away from Republicans. How much will it cost them to win? Consider–if they need, say, 25 million for each seat, that will be a total of 625 million for all 24 races. This is not counting what they will need to hold other seats. In Pennsylvania alone, races in the four target seats might demand 100 million. Can the Democrats afford it? It won’t be a cake walk.

    1. Maybe they can count on the GOP money men who will be abandoning Trump as he goes to jail.

      1. In your dreams, I’m afraid. But Trump’s DOJ might be sending some previous administration officials that way.

        1. What “scandals” are you referring to? That was a scandal free Administration.

    2. South Carolina’s 5th saw similar margins and almost no outside money. This suggests the money did not make a difference. Going from +20/24 to sub-4 point margins is, to put it mildly, of interest. If we are seeing a 20-plus point shift in ruby-red districts in the Deep South, that does not bode well for more moderate districts with lower Republican efficiency. If I were working at the NRCC right now, I think I would need a fresh pair of britches after seeing those results.

      1. Not a good idea to generalize too much from that race. Turnout for Tuesday’s vote was only 18.24%. The Republican candidate got 44.9K votes to the Democrat’s 42.1K votes. Last year’s election had the Republican get 161.7K votes and the Democrat 105.8K votes.

        Both parties had low turnout for the special election. Republican complacency almost cost them the seat. It would have, had the Democrats bothered to come out in any numbers.

    1. Water actually is not wet. Wetness is a description of our experience with water. It is what happens to us when we come in contact with water. So while we get wet, water is not wet. Have a good one.

  8. I already supported 2 candidates so far is to take for the democrats and they are in Pennsylvania’s 6th Congressional District, and Pennsylvania’s 7th District for 2018.

  9. DCCC Annual Pennsylvania Election Process:

    Step 1: Tout PA 6-8 as key to the path to majority

    Step 2: Promise tons of money to favorite candidates in return for using their organization-trained staff and preferred consultants

    Step 3: ???

    Step 4: Internal polling in Sept-Oct of election year shows poll numbers underwater

    Step 5: Pull all funding and staff from race and leave candidate and remaining folks on their own

    Step 6: Rinse and repeat 2 years later

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