The DCCC is moving out of the Keystone State.
According to a report from Alex Isenstadt of Politico, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee (DCCC) is canceling its planned TV advertising in Pennsylvania’s Sixth and Eighth Districts.
It’s all part of a plan, which typically takes place every October, to narrow the organization’s target list in order to protect as many incumbents as possible.
“In the face of millions of dollars from outside Republican groups aggressively pouring into our races, House Democrats are fortifying our vulnerable incumbents and focusing in on top-tier competitive races,” DCCC spokeswoman Emily Bittner told Politico.
Democratic nominees Manan Trivedi and Kevin Strouse are victims of this defensive shift.
“As part of the plan, Democrats will cancel planned TV advertising in a group of districts held by Republican lawmakers, all of which are now considered essentially out of reach,” Isenstadt writes. “They include the suburban Philadelphia districts held by Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick and retiring Rep. Jim Gerlach, the California districts of Reps. Jeff Denham and David Valadao, and the Illinois district of Rep. Rodney Davis.”
Last week, it was announced that House Majority PAC was pulling back from their planned spending for Manan Trivedi in the PA-6 race. The contest was also downgraded by the Rothenberg Political Report. Trivedi has at least fared better than PA-8 Democratic nominee Kevin Strouse, whose raced has been called safely Republican by multiple political prognosticators.
Strouse, however, is still running TV ads and Trivedi believes he will still prevail.
“While our opponent has run ads funded by nearly a million dollars in special interest money, our campaign is fueled by the grassroots volunteers and strong community support necessary to win in November,” Trivedi spokesman Daren Berringer said.
Ryan Costello is the GOP nominee in PA-6 and serves as Chester County Commissioner. Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick is the GOP nominee and three-term incumbent Congressman in Pennsylvania’s Eighth District.
Update: Jack Fitzpatrick of the National Journal also wrote about the DCCC’s action. His comments on PA-6 and PA-8 are included below:
Pennsylvania 6th and 8th Districts: The committee is cutting a week’s reservations in Philadelphia supporting physician and veteran Manan Trivedi, who has fallen behind Republican Chester County Commissioner Ryan Costello in the race for retiring Rep. Jim Gerlach’s seat; and Army veteran Kevin Strouse has failed to make an impact in his challenge against Republican Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick.
Update 2: Will Block of the Strouse campaign gave the following statement to PoliticsPA:
“Smart, competitive campaigns like ours don’t rely on outside spending and that’s why we’ve been on TV for weeks and have been running an aggressive campaign contrasting Kevin’s service to the country with Congressman Fitzpatrick’s support of Tom Corbett’s fracking policies and backwards views on women’s issues. While the Congressman refuses to hold public meetings with his constituents, voters have a chance to meet Strouse in person tomorrow night, as he’s the only candidate in this race who respects the people of the 8th District enough to attend public town halls.”
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15 Responses
@Sophie @DavidDiano Word from all over the state is that the Wolf and FreshStart campaigns have not been playing well in the sandbox with others. There are down ballot races he could have endorsed, done a mailing for or otherwise helped. Not even a nod to the down ticket candidates who are not blessed by HDCC or SDCC. Forget the Congressional candidates who are on the margins.
I should have added the following- many Rs are going to vote for Wolf in the suburbs this year- it could be as high as 25% but they are fed up with Obama and are going to go right back and vote Republican for the rest of the ticket. If Obama were popular, it would be a different story but right now he is poison in most states. It didn’t help when he said last week that all his policies were on the ballot this year even if he wasn’t. It was one of the dumbest political things to say-even Axelrod said so, his former top aide.
If either race was winnable, the DCCC would have spent the money. Both races were targeted. The way it works is that they do a poll of each district where they are going to spend money. They concentrate on Districts the opposition holds that are winnable. Both PA-8 and Pa-6 looked winnable on paper. However, polling from those two races indicate the Republicans will win them easily so why pour a fortune to try and win them when they might come up short anyway. Instead, they decided to spend their money attempting to save some Democrats that could easily lose. Naturally, you are going to protect what you have in the end before you take a chance on getting something you don’t have–Republicans make the same strategic decisions but the Dems have a lot more money to spend than the Republicans in both House and Senate races so they intend to keep their losses to a minimum. In North Carolina alone, Dems have spent 14 million to hold that Senate Seat while the Rs have only spend a little less than 5 million. It gives you an idea of the money situation this year. It’s always easier for incumbents to raise money.
Sophie-
You don’t have to “coordinate” with anyone to say: Vote Straight Dem Ticket.
Put your tin foil hat back on and smoke a dooby for me.
@David Diano Coordination efforts with congressional campaigns have to be run through the state party. And, well…that wasn’t going to happen.
The EPA, the DOE and other GOs understate the impacts of methane by using the 100 year global warming potential, GWP, of 20. Methane, when emitted, has a GWP of well over 100, not 20. This amounts to cooking the books while preventing the public’s evaluation in terms of immediate climate impacts. Fracking leaks prodigious amounts of methane.
Admit it, fossil fuel development in the face of abrupt climate change is the worst idea our country and our world could come up with, but yet no one will take responsibility for this mistake let alone reverse the development. We either reverse course, or quite simply, we wont be here in significant numbers in the near term future. According to 21 scientists who wrote to the EPA and the Administration, methane has the ability to tip the climate. They found: Due to the use of only the 100-year GWP and the use of outdated GWPs from early IPCC assessment reports, the warming influence of methane emissions over the next several decades has been underestimated by as much as a factor of four in many recent assessments, leading to neglect of important and practical opportunities for slowing near term warming.
You can’t negotiate with nature and she always bats last. And, her bat is getting bigger with every greenhouse gas molecule that is emitted. If you’re tired of the lies, the corruption, and impacts from this pollution, come to the Global Frackdown this Saturday, October 11th. Locate an event near you. Thanks. http://www.globalfrackdown.org/events-2014/
Looks like PA gov is a statistical outlier. I predict there won’t be a legislative chamber with candidates on the PA ballot that won’t be more Republican in January. It’s like that in most states.
Diano,
Having been a life long resident of the 8th I can tell you this. Patrick Murphy soured the district against moderate dems, Mainly because he was anything but.
I can’t speak for the 6th but the 8th is essentially the Bucks county district. Aside from the old “Greenwood Gash” it has never really been gerrymandered. It is an easier seat for dems to win because of this. Most of the votes are concentrated in dem voter rich Lower Bucks County where Fitzpatrick was born and raised and still resides. This was another case of a poorly run campaign that featured a stoic candidate who failed to connect with voters. At a recent candidate forum Strouse agreed with almost every point mike Fitzpatrick made or already sponsored.
Kind of hard to win when you make a huge deal or “no budget/no pay” when Fitzpatrick sponsored and got the bill passed in the house 1 month before Strouse moved to the district.
Strouse is another example national politics thinking they can win in Bucks, a typical bellwether district.
My hope is they stop voting at 7pm in the 8th so Strouse only loses by 30.
“What?” –
Wolf is going to win in a landslide. That’s already established.
The problem is that the 6th and 8th are tough for Dems. The GOP has a 6 point registration advantage, and the district hits so many counties that it’s difficult to coordinate a campaign to overcome the registration disadvantages.
In the 8th, the registrations are about even but the Dem party infrastructure is in disarray and practically non-existent. The GOP will turnout out 65% and the Dems will only turn out 55% this cycle. Add to that that Fitzpatrick is an incumbent who is not a radical right-winger, so he can appeal to the center.
But, Wolf may well win in both districts, then the REAL problem will be that he didn’t push straight-ticket voting from his supporters. If he did push straight ticket, then down-ticket Dems would at least feel that he tried to help the whole party. But, if there is no straight-ticket effort, then the down-ticket candidates will feel betrayed/abandoned.
Wolf has NOTHING to lose pushing straight-ticket and doing STRONG coordinated campaigning in swing districts, since he’s going to win anyway. But, if he can get an extra Dem legislator that turns a -1 into a +1 and puts him two-steps closer on legislation.
But how could this be? I heard there was a wave election coming and that Tom Wolf was winning and assumed it was the Democrats ascending. What’s happening!!!
Has there been any actual published polling for these races?
Hot rumor is that Brendan McPhillips can’t figure out where they went wrong with Kevin Strouse. He has Patrick Murphy’s resume and championed Bills written by Mike Fitzpatrick. Hopefully Brendan doesn’t deter him in his career. I mean not everyone can lose as badly as Lyndon LaRouche and still think they are the better candidate.
Fitzpatrick by 30, lets hope they cut off voting early so Strouse isn’t completely embarrassed.
No surprise. Dems in DC have given up competing for house seats and are focused on holding the Senate.
Looks like its about time for Kevin Strouse to make his next opportunistic move. I think there is a seat in Ohio opening up next year Kevin. Perhaps a move to the Buckeye state is in store for your family. I’m sure the local Dems there can create some bullshit nonprofit for you to say you run there like they did in Bucks.