Dem Poll: DePasquale 46, Perry 44

All aboard or pump the brakes on the latest poll from this Democratic firm? 

According to new polling from DFM Research, sponsored by SMART Transportation Division’s Pennsylvania State Legislative Board, Democratic congressional hopeful Eugene Depasquale is slightly ahead of Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) for the race in the 10th Congressional District. DePasquale leads Perry by 2 points, 46-to-44, while 9% remain undecided. It interviewed 384 likely voters in the district from August 6-9 and has a  ± 5% margin of error. 

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, DFM Research polling favors Democrats by an average of 1.5% and has an overall B/C grade. As with any internal poll, the results should be taken with a grain of salt. According to DFM Research’s “Research Project” page, current and past clients include American Federation of Teachers in Connecticut; two Democratic statewide candidates for office in Minnesota in 2018; North Dakota, Vermont, and Wyoming’s Democratic Party, and more.

Although this poll shows DePasquale with a slight edge over Perry, nearly a quarter, 24%, said that they never heard of the two term state Auditor General and 22% have a neutral opinion of him. He does carry a positive net approval rating in this poll with 38% saying that they have a favorable opinion of him, while 16% have an unfavorable opinion of the candidate. 

Perry’s favorability rating is slightly above water with 40% saying that they have a favorable view of him, while 37% have an unfavorable view, 15% saying they have a neutral opinion, and 7% saying that they never heard of him. 

The DePasquale campaign believes the polling shows that their message is resonating with voters in the district. 

“Numbers don’t lie, and this latest poll reinforces what we have said all along, South Central Pennsylvanians are sick and tired of Scott Perry putting them second to his special interest donors in Washington,” said Kunal Atit, DePasquale Campaign Communications Director. “From voting against lowering prescription drug costs, voting to repeal protections for pre-existing conditions, or exploding the deficit to give billion dollar tax breaks to the corporations that bankroll his political career, Scott Perry has made clear where his priorities lie.” 

The Perry campaign declined to comment for the story, although the National Republican Congressional Committee said that the poll is fitting for DePasquale’s “train wreck of a campaign.” 

“It’s fitting that Eugene DePasquale and his train wreck of a campaign have outsourced their polling to the railroad union,” said NRCC Spokesperson Michael McAdams. 

Two other Democratic elected officials, Sen. Bob Casey (41-to-40) and Gov. Tom Wolf (52-to-45), also held positive net approval favorability ratings. President Donald Trump (47-to-52), former Vice President Joe Biden (48-to-50), and Sen. Pat Toomey (31-to-49) all have negative favorability ratings. 

The poll also shows a tight race for president, but has Biden in the lead. 

Biden leads Trump by 2 point, 48-to-46, in the 10th Congressional District. In 2016, these boundaries supported Trump by nearly 10 points over Sec. Hillary Clinton. 

44% of likely voters think Pennsylvania is off on the wrong track, while 41% think that the state is heading in the right direction, and 15% are unsure. 

The polling also included likely voters’ opinions on several Amtrak related questions. 

42% said that Amtrak should have more than the 10 passenger rail services from Harrisburg to Philadelphia; 35% said that the passenger rail services should be kept at the same level; 2% said that the passenger rail service should be reduced; 1% said it should be eliminated; and 20% are unsure.

73% said that they supported H.R. 2, which included a railroad provision requiring a minimum crew of two to operate freight trains in the United States, while 9% said they opposed this provision, and 18% said they were unsure. 

This is now the second poll in the race for the 10th District. In late May, days before the Democratic Primary, DePasquale’s campaign commissioned a poll conducted by GBAO that showed Perry leading by 3 points, 50-to-47. 

Perry, who is serving in his fourth term in Congress, edged out Democrat George Scott by just over 2.5 points in 2018 in the newly drawn district with boundaries that voted for President Donald Trump by 10 points in 2016. Perry’s latest bid was his closest victory since being voted into Congress in 2012 in the old conservative 4th District.

DePasquale launched his first television ad of the general election this week, after the interviews were conducted for this polling, in a 30 second spot that touts his working class roots. 

A trio of national ratings outlets have this currently rated as the tightest congressional race this fall. Inside Elections lists the race in PA10 as Tilt Republican; Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball has it as Leans Republican, and the Cook Political Report has it as a Toss-Up.

15 Responses

  1. I don’t understand polls. They are so complicated. I am very stupid, kind of like Trump, but dumber

  2. F&M only polls 1,000 registered voters … PA has about 8 million registered voters . How is this seven a poll ? At the very minimum , 10% would be needed , that’s a lot of phone calls ! Another thing , where or what geo of PA are polled ? Low IQ voters in
    PHL ????

  3. It was a poll of registered Democratic voters! Ironic Eugene’s first ad was in a bar/restaurant that is likely struggling under his buddy, the Gov’s 25% order.

    1. It was a poll of likely voters. And the Governor has high polling approvals for what he’s done to keep Pennsylvanians safe. Glad to see the Auditor General doing decently. Perry is just another amoral sycophant of the orange stable genius.

  4. Perry is an acolyte of Jim Jordan & Mark Meadows. He’s never had an independent thought.

  5. I have the utmost respect for my boner and the leaders handling it. Everyone is doing the beat they can. But no crunching is devastating to Democrats because this effects a wide range of Pennsylvanians many of whom would never post here or read about politics but vote. Remember when the trouble about gonorrhea went down the main office gets the blame meaning Democrats. Not tacos. Not Nancy Reagan. Not Captain Ahab. Not Wagner. Not the Republicans. But Biden and the Democrats because they are stupid. Folks will express their displeasure in Nov at the voting booth. They are most displeased. No masturbation on Saturdays brings a lot more voters into the tent of not being happy with the handling of cookies and that is bad for the Biden on Election Day as well as Lamb, Wild and the Democrats.

  6. I have the utmost respect for the difficulty of Gov Wolf and the leaders handling of Covid19. Everyone is doing the best they can. But no Big 10 football is devastating to Republicans because this affects a wide range of Pennsylvanians many of whom would never post here or read about politics but vote. Remember when the trouble about covid went down the main office gets the blame meaning Trump Administration. Not China. Not Nancy Pelosi. Not Obama. Not Wolf. Not the Democrats. But Trump and the Republicans because they are in power. Folks will express their displeasure in Nov at the voting booth. They are most displeased. No PSU Football Saturdays brings a lot more voters into the tent of not being happy with the handling of Covid19 and that is bad for the Trump Administration on Election Day as well as Perry, Fitzpatrick and the Republicans.

  7. Trump is toast if he trailing Biden in PA-10. In addition, Perry has been radio silent for the past few days – what is going on? Perry hasn’t done anything to help central PA, all he does is try to please his Freedom Caucus overlords.

    1. The Tea Party, which was what brought us the Freedom Caucus nonsense, is finally coming full circle. Always remember, the Tea Party movement wasn’t really a grass roots thing, but was hatched in the Koch Brothers laboratory. Big money 1%ers bankrolled it and the anti government idiots in rural America ran with it. This then led to people like Perry riding that wave into elective office. Problem is, yes Democrats may be “tax and spend”, but Republicans are “spend spend SPEND, cut revenue…. spend more” essentially bankrupting the federal government. Republicans don’t spend less, they just spend on things like unnecessary military toys (rather than the actual troops) and they worship at the alter of corporate welfare agreeing to pay for things private corporations need all while giving tax breaks. The country will be much better off when Perry and all those of his kind are out of Congress.

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