A new internal poll from Eugene DePasquale’s campaign shows him leading Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) in the race for the 10th Congressional District.
The survey commissioned by the Democratic challenger’s campaign and conducted by GBAO shows DePasquale leading Perry by 6 points, 51-to-45. It interviewed 500 likely voters from Sept. 29 to Oct. 2 and has a ± 4.4% margin of error.
The poll was first reported by the York Dispatch.
According to analysts at FiveThirtyEight, GBAO has an overall B/C grade. The firm’s client page shows that they have represented a few other Democrats in Pennsylvania in the past, including DePasquale, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, and Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia).
As with any internal poll, the results should be taken with a grain of salt.
The polling shows that Perry maintains an advantage on who voters are familiar with, although DePasquale has gained ground in comparison to their previous poll conducted in late-August. 88% said that they were familiar with Perry. 80% said that they were familiar with DePasquale, which is a 4% increase since August.
This latest GBAO poll also shows former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45, in boundaries that Trump carried by nearly 10 points in 2016 over Sec. Hillary Clinton.
This is the third poll from GBAO in the race for the 10th Congressional District. In late May, a few days before the state’s primary, they conducted a poll that showed Perry leading DePasquale by 3 points, 50-to-47. A poll released in early September showed DePasquale leading Perry by 4 points, 50-to-46.
House Majority PAC, a Democratic super PAC endorsed by House Democratic leadership, released a poll of PA10 conducted by Victoria Research in late-September that showed DePasquale leading Perry by 7 points, 50-to-43.
However, a poll commissioned by the York Dispatch in late August to early September showed Perry leading DePasquale by 6 points, 44.7%-to-38.4%. That poll showed the York County Republican’s lead outside the margin of error, although the pollster described the race as a “toss-up.”
Perry, who is serving in his fourth term in Congress, edged out Democrat George Scott by just over 2.5 points in 2018 in the newly drawn district with boundaries that sided with Trump by 10 points in 2016. Perry’s latest bid was his closest victory since being voted into Congress in 2012 in the old conservative 4th District.
A trio of national ratings outlets have this currently rated as the tightest congressional race this fall. Inside Elections lists the race in PA10 as Tilt Republican, while Larry Sabato’s Crystal Ball and the Cook Political Report have it as a Toss-Up.