A new internal poll shows a tight race in Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District.
The survey commissioned by Dem hopeful Eugene DePasquale’s campaign and conducted by GBAO shows Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) by 3 points, 50% to 47%. That is within the poll’s margin of error. It interviewed 600 likely voters from May 28-31, a few days before the state’s primary, and has a ± 4% margin of error. The poll was first reported by the National Journal.
FiveThirtyEight doesn’t rate polling from GBAO, but the firm’s client page shows that they have represented a few other Democrats in Pennsylvania in the past, including DePasquale, Lt. Gov. John Fetterman, and Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia).
As with any internal poll, the results should be taken with a grain of salt. It is almost a month old, and its release coincides with the end of the second quarter fundraising period. Releasing polling numbers is a common fundraising tactic.
The DePasquale campaign says the results are proof that his message will resonate in the district.
“Eugene has spent his career fighting for Pennsylvania families, while Congressman Scott Perry has prioritized his special interest campaign contributors in DC,” said campaign manager Rachele Fortier. “When people learn about Eugene’s story they understand why the issues South Central Pennsylvanians are facing are so personal to him – from combating opioid abuse to lowering the cost of health care.”
Perry’s campaign said DePasquale’s closer-than-expected victory over Tom Brier in the Democratic primary showed his weakness.
“After an underwhelming performance in the primary against an underfunded candidate, it’s clear that Republicans and Democrats are very concerned about the Federal Election Commission ethics investigation currently underway into Eugene DePasquale and his campaign,” said Brian Nutt, Perry campaign spokesperson.
Brier’s campaign threatened an FEC complaint against DePasquale in late April, saying at the time that the candidate used his Auditor General campaign account in a way that boosted his congressional bid. However, due to a notarizing issue, no complaint was ever formally submitted. And Brier endorsed him, according to a release from DePasquale’s campaign on Wednesday morning.
Perry has a higher name identification in the district, leading DePasquale 80% to 63% in this category, but trails the Democrat in favorability rating. DePasquale holds a 15 point net approval rating, with 32% viewing the Democrat favorably and 17% negatively, while Perry has a 7 point net approval rating, with 35% viewing the incumbent Republican favorably and 28% negatively.
The poll also found that DePasquale leads by 10 points among independent voters and has an 10 point advantage among voters who know both candidates, 55% to 45%.
The poll shows an even tighter race for president.
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by 1 point, 48% to 47%, in the 10th Congressional District. Trump also holds a minus-6 point approval rating in the district.
In 2016, these boundaries supported Trump by nearly 10 points over Sec. Hillary Clinton.
The showdown between DePasquale and Perry is clearly one of the most sought after seats in Pennsylvania.
The Cook Political Report has the race as a Toss-Up.
Correction: This story has been updated to accurately reflect the status of Brier’s FEC submission.