Election Day Ratings from FiveThirtyEight, Cook and Sabato

Election day has finally arrived.

In mid-August, PoliticsPA recorded FiveThirtyEight’s projections for the 18 Congressional seats up for reelection in the state of Pennsylvania. Some races have tightened since that article, such as Pennsylvania 1, 10, and 16, while some matchups have gone in the direction of one candidate.

Today, we look at the Election Day ratings from FiveThirtyEight, Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball.  

PA Gov:  Gov. Tom Wolf (D) vs Scott Wagner (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Wolf has a 99% chance of winning

Cook: Likely Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

PA Sen: Sen. Bob Casey (D) vs Lou Barletta (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Casey has a 96.9% chance of winning

Cook: Likely Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

PA1: Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Bucks) vs Scott Wallace (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Fitzpatrick has a 57.1% chance of winning

Cook: Toss Up

Sabato Crystal Ball: Leans Republican

PA2: Rep. Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia) vs David Torres (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Boyle has a 99.9% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

PA3: Rep. Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) vs Bryan Leib (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Evans has a 99.9% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

PA4: Madeleine Dean (D) vs Dan David (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Dean has a 99.9% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

PA5: Mary Gay Scanlon (D) vs Pearl Kim (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Scanlon has a 99.9% chance of winning

Cook: Likely Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

PA6: Chrissy Houlahan (D) vs Greg McCauley

FiveThirtyEight: Houlahan has a 97.6% chance of winning

Cook: Likely Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

PA7: Susan Wild (D) vs Marty Nothstein (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Wild has a 95.1% chance of winning

Cook: Leans Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Leans Democratic

PA8: Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Lackawanna) vs John Chrin (R)

FiveThirtyEight: Cartwright has a 96.2% chance of winning

Cook: Likely Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic

PA9: Dan Mueser (R) vs Denny Wolff (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Mueser has a 99.8% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA10: Rep. Scott Perry (R-York) vs George Scott (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Perry has a 67.5% chance of winning

Cook: Toss Up

Sabato Crystal Ball: Leans Republican

PA11: Rep. Lloyd Smucker (R-Lancaster) vs Jess King (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Smucker has a 93.2% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA12: Rep. Tom Marino (R-Lycoming) vs Marc Friedenberg (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Marino has a 99.9% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA13: John Joyce (R) vs Brent Ottaway (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Joyce has a 99.9% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA14: Guy Reschenthaler (R) vs Bibiana Boerio (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Reschenthaler has a 99.2% chance of winning

Cook: Likely Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA15: Glenn W. Thompson (R-Centre) vs Susan Boser (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Thompson has a 99.9% chance of winning

Cook: Solid Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Republican

PA16: Rep. Mike Kelly (R-Butler) vs Ron DiNicola (D)

FiveThirtyEight: Kelly has a 87.4% chance of winning

Cook: Leans Republican

Sabato Crystal Ball: Leans Republican

PA17: Rep. Conor Lamb (D-Allegheny) vs Rep. Keith Rothfus (R-Allegheny)

FiveThirtyEight: Lamb has a 95.9% chance of winning

Cook: Likely Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Likely Democratic

PA18: Rep. Mike Doyle (D-Allegheny)

FiveThirtyEight: Doyle is running uncontested

Cook: Solid Democratic

Sabato Crystal Ball: Safe Democratic

3 Responses

  1. 99% chance of victory says all you need to know about how it looks. Of course, always always vote! Inside Elections has Wolf as “likely Democratic” and Casey as “solid Democratic.” This newsletter really contorts themselves to not be out on a limb so these designations for Casey and Wolf are not lightly given. In short, it is going to be a positive and big night for Wolf and Casey and Democrats.

    1. Oh, no doubt. I was thinking more about the House races across the country and how 538’s 86% chance of D control means the R’s still have a decent chance at retaining.

      The Wagner and Casey races will be called by 8:10.

  2. People really need to understand that 538 is a probabilistic look at an election. It is NOT a predictor as Silver has pointed out endlessly. People should not read too much into any of this data. Vote!

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  • When Should The Special Elections For The PA House Be Held?


    • May 16, 2023 (Primary Day) (51%)
    • March, 2023 (47%)
    • April, 2023 (2%)

    Total Voters: 173

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