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Emerson: Casey Tops McCormick, 47-41; Trump and Biden Still Tight


The latest Emerson College poll shows once again what polls have been indicating for the past 2-3 weeks.

On the presidential side, former President Donald Trump received 47.3 percent from the responses of 1,000 registered voters in the Keystone State, while President Joe Biden polled at 45.2 percent. That 2.1 percentage-point difference is within the +/-3.0 percent margin of error, making the race a statistical tie.

When looking at the last five surveys of Pennsylvanians, Trump holds a +2.5 advantage but all five fall within the MOE.

In a similar vein, Sen. Bob Casey continues to hold the lead over Republican challenger Dave McCormick. The three-time incumbent polled at 47.1 percent to 40.9 percent for the former CEO of Bridgewater Associates, The 6.2 percent margin is consistent with recent polls from Marist and Florida Atlantic.

“In our first polling in several key swing states since Trump’s conviction last month, there has been little movement, with support for both Trump and Biden staying largely consistent since November,” Spencer Kimball, executive director of Emerson College Polling, said. “Notably, results fall within the poll’s margin of error.”

“Independent voters break for Trump in all seven states – however, there has been some movement among these voters since April,” Kimball said. “In Arizona, Trump’s support among independents dropped five points, from 48% to 43%. In Michigan, Trump’s support dropped three, from 44% to 41%, and in Pennsylvania, Trump dropped eight points, from 49% to 41%. Biden lost support among independents in Georgia, by six points, 42% to 36% and Nevada, by five, 37% to 32%.”

While Biden trails Trump, the Democratic Senate candidate leads the Republican candidate in Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan, Nevada, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin.

Democratic Senate candidates outperform Biden by two in Arizona, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin, three in Minnesota, and seven in Nevada.

Miscellaneous Toplines

  • Approval: Biden 38.7
  • Approval: Shapiro 49.2
  • Most Important Issues: Economy 43.5, Threats to Democracy 11.6, Immigration 9.5
  • Trump’s Conviction on Voting: 37.2 no impact, 33.8 less likely, 29.0 more likely
  • Hunter Biden’s Conviction on Voting: 66.4 no impact, 22.2 less likely to vote for Joe Biden, 11.4 more likely

2 Responses

  1. Bob Casey Jr unlike his father is incompetent and stands for a radical left wing agenda. He backed the failed Obama Iran deal- he was a big spend high tax champion- Casey Jr never denounced the squad and he chose to praise CAIR- did he also take money from them? Bob Casey Jr is part of an evil modern Democratic Party- not the party of JfK and Henry Jackso. In addition he has supported the most incompetent And corrupt president- Biden. You don’t have to like Trump to know reelecting Biden and the even more incompetent Harris would be catastrophic for this Nations future.


  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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