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Emerson PA-18 Poll: Lamb 48, Saccone 45

A new poll from Emerson College shows Democrat Conor Lamb with 48% support and Republican Rick Saccone with 45% in a poll conducted from March 1st through 3rd.  

The poll found that voters are excited to vote in the special election, with 56% being very excited to vote and only 7% saying they are not excited at all.  

From Emerson College:

Lamb has a positive image in the district, with 48% saying they have a favorable opinion and a 33% unfavorable rating – 15% of voters had heard of him but had no opinion. Saccone is not as popular with a 44% favorable and a 40% unfavorable rating – 15% of voters had heard of him but had no opinion.

Lamb leads 57% to 40% in Allegheny County, which is expected to account for about 42% of the vote. Saccone leads in Westmoreland County 51% to 42%, a county that comprises about 33% of the vote. Saccone leads in Washington County 46% to 41%, which make up about 22% of the vote.

The poll is released just over a week ahead of the election that national Democrats and Republicans have been investing in heavily.  Recent polls have shown the race to be close giving both sides the opportunity for a win ahead of the midterm election to build fundraising momentum.  

The poll used an online and landline sample of 474 likely voters and had a confidence interval of +/- 4.8%.

17 Responses

  1. It occurs to me that Trump’s tariff move against imported steel is favorably received by union households and those who used to work in the steel industry in Allegheny County. So, being tied with Trump may help Saccone in Allegheny County.

  2. Prediction: One more poll confirms a Lamb lead and Trump is a no-show next weekend.

  3. This is a landline poll, which skews the results slightly (older people? More likely to vote?). I want a second opinion: I would like to see it confirmed by another poll.

  4. In terms of actually flipping the House this fall, this election is largely meaningless now because of the the new map (this district won’t exist in 10 months). What matters in that regard is where Saccone will run (prob the new 14th), and whether Lamb will run in the new 17 against Rothfus.

    Where this race matters is its symbolic importance, and how Democrats are still massively overperforming in traditionally red areas. If this poll is any indication, that is indeed still the case and the GOP is screwed in November.

    1. Agreed.

      The only caveat I would add is that the general election is 8 months away. If the economic news continues to be positive, then I could see Republicans making up enough ground to the point where they still lose seats but keep the House.

      The tax bill is a great illustration. Its approval numbers were initially around 25% with the Democrats’ (and the media’s) ridiculous warnings of “Armageddon,” etc. Of course, the sky did not fall as was promised, and after just a few months the law is already over 50% approval.

      Whether the economic news will continue to be positive, who knows. Trump’s latest proposed tariffs and other protectionist measures would be disastrous. Here’s hoping conservatives talk him off the ledge.

      1. Deregs haven’t kicked in yet. When they do, there will be a hurt in this country that will make your Chinese maga hats spin.

        Believe me!

        1. Yes. Because you are as fair and balanced as can be. Go take a spin on the “I love the ACA no matter what” ride again.

          1. Pardon me while I get the bone spur shaved off the underside of my collarbone and in three cervical disks in my neck. Not to mention stem cell injection for my lumbar.

            You’re supposed to have Jesus in the Republican Party. Don’t be such a honkey all your life.


    2. If saccone wins, it is meaningless, if .lamb wins in a .trump. 20 district it is another shot at the trump juggernaut, but more important is a political indictment of saccone as a poor candidate. This one should have been a GOP no brainer. So even though the district could disappear, it has meaning both locally and nationally. Of course, the redistriciting will be the spin of the loser

  5. Pro-tip for comrade Joe: using ALL CAPS doesn’t make your point any more persuasive, nor does misspelling the candidate’s name (Conor Lamb). And what on earth is a “lap-lackey stooge,” anyway? Maybe time to switch to decaf, my friend.

  6. Looks like there are enough USEFUL IDIOTS in that District who are falling for the outright lies of Connor Lamb (D), saying that he will be an “independent voice” and a “moderate” whom will “stand up to Nancy Pelosi”.

    Connor Lamb will be good, lap-lackey stooge for Nancy Pelosi, and if the Democrats take back the House of Representatives in 2018, this Country will be in a double-dip recession, or even a Great Depression by the summer of 2020.

    1. The people who really control the economic engine of this country will not allow their investments to tank. The Trump Adm. will be there for them.

  7. Polling 48-45 is within 4.8% margin of error. Tough race to call, especially with it being a special election.

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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