Emerson Poll: Biden 50, Trump 46

Former Vice President Joe Biden holds a few point advantage over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this latest poll. 

A Emerson College poll of likely voters in Pennsylvania released on Sunday shows Biden leading Trump by 4 points, 50%-to-46%. Trump cut into Biden’s lead by one point in this latest poll. Their previous poll released in early-October showed Biden with a 5 point lead, 50%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state.  

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Emerson College polling favors Democrats by an average of 0.3% and has an overall A- grade. 

Biden leads Trump among suburban voters (55-to-36), and urban voters (57-to-36), while Trump has the advantage over Biden with rural voters (65-to-31). 

Trump’s job approval rating is also under water in this poll. 46% approve of his job performance as president, while 50% disapprove. 

The economy was the most important issue for Pennsylvania voters in deciding their vote for president with 33% selecting this option. COVID-19 response finished as the second highest choice with 21% selecting it as the most important option, followed by 13% picking social justice, 11% choosing healthcare, 8% saying climate change, and 3% that said the Supreme Court. 

Biden and Trump voters are split on the most important issue. 

60% of Trump voters say the economy is the most important issue. 35% of Biden voters say that COVID-19 response is the most important issue, followed by 19% choosing social justice, 16% selecting healthcare, and 13% saying climate change.

This poll, surveying 823 likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between Oct. 29-30, has a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

The full polling can be found here.

This latest poll is in-line with the current Real Clear Politics average. 

A previous New York Times/Siena College poll of likely voters released in early-October showed Biden carrying a 7 point lead over Trump, 49-to-42. A CBS poll conducted by YouGov released one day after the NYT/Siena College poll also shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51-to-44, among likely voters. A Monmouth University shows the former VP leading the president by 12 points, 54-to-42, among registered voters in the state. An Emerson College poll of likely voters showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50-to-45, in the state. A Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes poll, in partnership with Oakland University and Ohio Northern University, shows Biden leading Trump by just over 5 points, 49.6%-to-44.5%. 51% of likely voters in the state back Biden in the state, while 46% support Trump, according to The Hill/HarrisX polling. A Rasmussen Reports survey of likely votersshows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, in the state. A Quinnipiac University poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 21, showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 51%-to-43%. A CNN/SSRS poll of likely voters also released on Oct. 21 showed Biden leading Trump by 10 points, 53%-to-43%. A Fox News poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%. A CNBC/Change Research poll shows Biden leading by just 2 points, 49%-to-47%, among likely voters in the state. A Morning Consult poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 9 points, 52%-to-43%. A Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll of likely voters released on Oct. 23 showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. A Gravis marketing poll of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 51%-to-44%, in the state. Polling also released on Monday from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal of likely voters in the state showed Biden leading Trump by 8 points, 52%-to-44%. A Reuters/Ipsos poll released on Monday shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 50%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A Trafalgar Group poll showed Trump leading Biden by less than 1 point, 48.4%-to-47.6%, among likely voters in the state. A Civiqs/DailyKos poll of likely voters shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A Franklin & Marshall College poll released on Oct. 28 showed Biden carrying a 6 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. A third Quinnipiac University poll released this month on Oct. 28 showed Biden leading Trump among likely voters in the state by 7 points, 51%-to-44%. Biden holds a 5 point lead over Trump, 50%-to-45%, among registered voters in the state, according to a Univision/University of Houston poll. A PoliticalIQ poll conducted by Scott Rasmussen showed Biden leading Trump by 6 points, 51%-to-45%, among likely voters in the state. A second The Hill/Harris polling released in late-October showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, among likely voters in the state. A second Morning Call/Muhlenberg College poll released on Oct. 31 showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 49%-to-44%, in the state. A Washington Post/ABC News poll released on Sunday showed Biden with a 7 point advantage, 51%-to-44%, among likely voters in the state. A New York Times/Siena College poll released on Sunday shows Biden ahead of Trump by 6 points, 49%-to-43%, among likely voters in the state. 

Biden’s largest lead in October public polling comes from the Quinnipiac University poll released on Oct. 7 that showed the former VP leading the president by 13 points, 54-to-41, among likely voters in the state. An AtlasIntel poll of likely voters in the state released on Oct. 31 showed Trump with a 1 point lead over Biden, 49.6%-to-48.5%. 

One other poll from a conservative website showed Trump in the lead, while another GOP friendly poll and two Democratic backed polls released this month showed Biden with an advantage in the state, although the margin varied by the pollster. 

An Insider Advantage phone poll commissioned by the Center for American Greatness, a conservative website, of likely voters in the state released this week shows Trump leading Biden by just under 3 points, 48.4%-to-45.5%. A Trafalgar Group poll commissioned by Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, showed Biden leading Trump by 1 point, 47.5%-to-46.4%, among likely voters in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by American Bridge, a Democratic super PAC, showed Biden leading Trump by 5 points, 51%-to-46%, in the state. A Public Policy Polling survey commissioned by Climate Power 2020 shows Biden leading Trump by 7 points, 52%-to-45%, in the state.

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 4 points in Pennsylvania.

November 1st, 2020 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Poll, Presidential, Top Stories | 1 Comment

One thought on “Emerson Poll: Biden 50, Trump 46”

  1. Phil C says:

    I think the polls are garbage.
    They say the Democrat voters are smarter yet will vote for a crimimal amd traitor like Joe Biden.
    Please give the American people a break for having some smarts.

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