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Emerson Poll: Biden 52, Trump 43

Over 50% of likely voters in Pennsylvania would vote for former Vice President Joe Biden if the presidential election were held today according to this latest poll. 

The latest Emerson College poll of likely voters in the Keystone State shows Biden leading President Donald Trump by 9 points, 52-to-43, while 5% remain undecided. Pennsylvania is the most favorable state for the former VP of the three states polled by Emerson. Biden leads Trump by 4 points, 49-to-45, in Arizona, while Trump leads Biden by 2 points, 48-to-46, in North Carolina. 

According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Emerson College polling favors Democrats by an average of 0.3% and has an overall A- grade. 

Just over half, 51%, said they disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, while 42% disapprove, and 7% hold a neutral opinion. 

The analysis from Emerson is that the coronavirus epidemic “could be a contributing factor” in likely voters’ decisions in the state for the presidential race. 38% said that they were less likely to vote for Trump as a result of the pandemic, while 28% said that they were more likely to support the president’s reelection bid, and 35% said it made no difference. 

Democrats also have an edge in a general congressional matchup in this latest poll. 51% said they will support the Democratic Party candidate in a general congressional matchup, while 39% said they will support the Republican Party candidate, and 10% have yet to decide who they will vote for.

There’s a significant divide between Democrats/Biden voters and Republicans/Trump voters on voting by mail, in-person schooling, and their financial situation in comparison to four years ago. 

63% of likely voters in the state say that they intend to vote in-person for the presidential election, which is nearly identical to the latest battleground survey from the Elections Research Center at the University of Wisconsin-Madison conducted by YouGov in collaboration with the Wisconsin State Journal that showed that 62% of likely voters in Pennsylvania that said they plan to vote in-person in November. 

63% of those who will vote in-person plan to vote for Trump. Of the 37% of voters who plan to vote by mail, 87% plan to vote for Biden. 

45% of likely voters believe that K-12 schools should not reopen in-person amid the ongoing pandemic, while 35% believe that they should reopen, and 20% are unsure. 59% of Republicans believe that schools should reopen in-person classes, while 60% of Democrats believe they should not reopen in-person classes. 48% of Independent voters in the state believe that these schools should not reopen in-person classes, while 32% believe that they should reopen, and 20% are unsure. 

36% of likely voters in the state think that Trump should require all schools to go online, while 39% believe he should not, and 26% are unsure. 

However, over 6 in 10 likely voters in the state, 62%, believe that learning online is worse than learning in-person, while 26% believe that an online education is better than that of in-person education, and 12% believing that learning online is equal to in-person schooling.

40% of likely voters think that they are better off financially today than they were four years ago, while 23% said that they are worse off, and 37% said they are financially about the same. 61% of those who voted for Trump in 2016 said they are better off financially now, while only 22% of Clinton voters said they were better off financially now. 

A majority of voters, 71%, are in favor of a national mask mandate in public where social distancing is not possible, while 20% oppose it, and 8% are unsure. 

72% of likely voters in the state said that they would not ride in a driverless care, while only 29% said they would.

Nearly half, 49%, of likely voters in the state said that they trust polling less now than they did in 2016, while only 16% of voter said they trust polling more now, and 35% said there is no difference in their opinion on polling since 2016.

Biden maintains a several point edge in recent polling in the state, although this poll is the first in weeks to show Biden with over 50% of the vote. The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 6.4 points in Pennsylvania. 

This poll, surveying 843 registered likely voters in Pennsylvania, collected data between August 8-10, has a margin of error of +/- 3.4%.

The full polling can be found here.

4 Responses

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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