Emerson Poll: Clinton 46% Trump 43%

white-house-north-2007-djThe streak now stands at nine. That’s how many polls in a row that Hillary Clinton has led Donald Trump in PA.

Emerson College has Clinton at 45.9% while Trump has 42.7%.

Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson was chosen by 6.9% of respondents while Green Party nominee Jill Stein got 1.5%.

Meanwhile, 56.2% believe that Hillary actually will win the presidency compared to just 35.3% who think The Donald will prevail. 1.5% are true believers in Johnson.

Neither candidate did well with the favorable/unfavorable splits, although Clinton’s numbers (41.5/54.9) were slightly better than Trump’s (39.5/57.7).

The Emerson College Polling Society conducted this survey with 800 likely voters from August 25th to 28th. The data was collected using an IVR (Interactive Voice Response) system that only includes landlines. The data was also weighted by the 2012 results. The margin of error is +/- 3.4%.

Many polling experts are wary of IVR surveys, as best epitomized by the New York Times’ Nate Cohn:

9 Responses

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  2. Toomey hopes he can do what Santorum did in 2000, and what Specter did in 1992 and 2004 – outperform his party’s presidential candidate in the state. There are problems for Toomey with this goal, however. McGinty is no Ron Klink. She is center-left and fully backed by her party. Klink was not supported by the Democratic Party and couldn’t get many Dems to vote for him because he was center-right on social issues. Toomey on the other hand is no Specter. He is socially far right and has the anchor of Wall Street hanging on his neck also. This is the Democratic Party’s race to lose.

  3. @Joe It goes beyond the millennial generation. The main way to communicate is now the cell phone by a majority.

  4. @disqualified A lot of millennials are staying home this election. The majority of the electorate is above 35 and they still use landlines, especially the above 50 crowd.

  5. This poll should be automatically thrown out. It only included landlines and did NOT include cell phones. Since we live in the age of technology and no longer live in the dinosaur age, landlines might as well be extinct. Most families and 100% of the millennial generation use cell phones to communicate.

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