We all knew that the race for the presidency in Pennsylvania would be tight. And the recent poll from Emerson College shows just how tight it will be.

In a survey of 950 likely Keystone State voters, 459 indicated they would vote for Vice President Kamala Harris while 458 favored former President Donald Trump.

That works out to 48-48% with just two percent stating that they were undecided as to whom to cast their vote for in November.

It is the first time in four statewide polls that the Veep has polled below 49 percent, while Trump’s number is his best since a Bloomberg/Morning Consult survey in late July.

Independent voters favor Harris by eight points (48-40%), while women (54-42%) and voters under 30 (65-35%) also break for the VP. Male voters continue to fall into the Trump camp by double digits (55-41%).

Typically, pollsters find that not all those surveyed indicate that they are very likely to vote in the election.

Not this time, as all 950 responded in the affirmative.

Ninety-five percent of those polled said they were not planning on changing their mind and that they would definitely vote for their preferred candidate, while just under five percent indicated they could change their mind.

Favorability

• Harris, plus 2.1 (50.7-48.6)
• Trump, minus 3.1 (48.1-51.2)

Perhaps not incredible but head-scratching nonetheless, six respondents said they had never heard of Harris nor Trump.

Project 2025

The controversial Heritage Foundation publication that allegedly lists the priorities for another Trump administration made 36.5 percent of respondents less likely to vote for him, while the same percentage said it made no difference. Nearly 1-in-7 (14.3%) indicated it would make them more likely to vote for the 45th president.

President Biden

• Job Approval (-14.8%)
  • 39.1% approve
  • 53.9% disapprove
• Legacy
  • Outstanding president: 16.9%
  • Above average: 17.8%
  • Average: 14.8%
  • Below average: 15.6%
  • Poor: 34.9%

U.S. Senate

Sen. Bob Casey Jr. continues to lead Republican challenger Dave McCormick by a margin outside the margin of error, 48.1-43.8%. The difference is slightly larger than Emerson’s last poll in July .

It is the fifth time in the last seven Pennsylvania surveys that Casey has reached the 48 percent mark, while McCormick’s percentage is the second-highest in the same timeframe. The state’s senior senator has a 7.8 percentage-point lead over his opponent in an average of the last five polls.

Miscellaneous

• Gov. Josh Shapiro job performance
  • Approve: 47.5%
  • Disapprove: 32.4%
  • Neutral or no opinion: 20.1%
• Most Important Issue Facing PA
  • Economy (jobs, inflation, taxes): 51.4%
  • Threats to Democracy: 10.7%
  • Immigration: 7.5%
• Taxes on Tips
  • Eliminate: 68.4%
  • Remain Taxable: 16.5%

The sample size in Pennsylvania is n=950, with a credibility interval of +/-3.1%. Data was weighted by statewide voter parameters, including gender, age, race/ethnicity, education (US Census), and voter registration (state secretary of state) and turnout data (exit polling).

The survey was administered by contacting respondents’ cell phones via MMS-to-web and landlines via Interactive Voice Response with respondents provided by Aristotle, along with an online panel provided by CINT. The survey was offered in English. Data was collected between August 25-28, 2024. The survey was conducted by Emerson College Polling and sponsored by Nexstar Media.