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EMILY’s List Poll: Schwartz Leads Dem Primary for Gov

Allyson Schwartz 2012
Allyson Schwartz

Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz leads the Democratic field for Governor according to a poll commissioned by EMILY’s list. She narrowly leads former Rep. Joe Sestak in a crowded primary.

EMILY’s list is an organization that supports pro-choice women seeking elected office.

Schwartz takes 18% to Sestak’s 15%, with Treasurer Rob McCord in third at 5% followed by former DEP Sec. Katie McGinty (5%), State Sen. Tim Solobay (3%), Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski (3%), Former Revenue Sec. Tom Wolf (2%), State Sen. Mike Stack (1%) and former DEP Sec. John Hanger (1%).

“Allyson Schwartz is the top choice of Democratic primary voters to take on Tom Corbett and become Pennsylvania’s next Governor – regardless of how many candidates are on the ballot and regardless of whom those candidates are,” the pollsters wrote. The full memo is below.

In a hypothetical three-way race, Schwartz leads McCord 31% to 12% followed by Wolf at 7%.

Schwartz is all but running for Governor. Politico reported Thursday that she hired as her communications director Reesa Kossoff, who did press for the Obama campaign last year in the number one battleground state of Ohio.

However, earlier Thursday, her congressional campaign emailed supporters with a fund appeal title, “An Early Start.” The language included several references to Corbett and Republicans and Harrisburg, but directed would-be donors to her congressional fundraising page.

She writes, “With a critical fundraising deadline approaching, I need your support again to ensure a strong start to our next campaign together.”

State law would allow Schwartz to transfer all money from her federal to a state account when she forms one.

Update: a strategist for McCord dismissed the poll.

“The only reason to conduct a poll more than a year before an election is to boost the morale of a nervous candidate. I can only assume it means that things are not going as planned for the Schwartz campaign,” he said. “Meanwhile, Treasurer McCord remains focused on getting things done for Pennsylvania, like trying to get Governor Corbett to reverse his bad decision on Medicaid expansion.”

The poll was conducted by Jefrey Pollock and Joe Hickerson of DC-based Global Strategy Group. The pollsters surveyed 601 likely primary voters via live calls from March 9 to 12. The margin of error is plus or minus 4%.

As with any internal poll, the results should be taken with a grain of salt. In this case, the numbers are part of an EMILY’s list effort to recruit Schwartz into the race – and to deter other prospective candidates. Plus, EMILY’s List and Schwartz both use the same pollster.

The polling memo did not include cross tabulations. Here is the memo:

EMILY’s List PA Polling memo

16 Responses

  1. Former Lower Merion Constable Eric Bradway will run foir Governor on the Democratic Ticket

  2. How is the Schwartz campaign not being investigated yet? They are clearly using government employees as part of her campaign.
    And she is still fundraising for her federal PAC at the same time she’s soliciting donations above the limits for a gubernatorial run? I must know 50 people who’ve been solicited by her. Skating by campaign finance laws is NOT the way to take out the guy who gave us Bonusgate.

  3. Schwartz has not gone open hat to Chesapeake Energy. That’s a proven path of success for Tom Corbett running for D.A. and for governor. What’s the matter with her? Typical Democrat.

  4. Thanks Chris. This is exactly the kind of action I like to see from our frisky candidates.

  5. Check out the vicious email exchange between Schwartz and McCord campaigns…Posted on Politico…Schwartz campaign is already in the gutter.

  6. Outside of the southeast it’s anybody’s ball game and they’ve all got a ton of work to do. These 4 I’ve mentioned will have the resources to compete. The fact that McCord is only polling where he is tells me that if another candidate substantially pulls ahead in the rest of the state in the coming year, they will be the one to challenge Schwartz. I am not decided yet on a candidate, but I’m sure we’ll be seeing them.

    McCord should be polling higher since he just ran. The fact that he is not… Tells me that voters in most of the state outside of the southeast could not pick him out of a line up either. Hence, I’ve got to put in McGinty (just starting) and perhaps wolf. The wild card in all this is Sestak.

  7. @ Western Dem

    If McCord is having trouble, then I don’t know what to think about McGintyand Wolf. I couldn’t pick them out of a line up.

  8. Contrary to the poll, this race is wide open. I have no double Allyson has a substantial edge in Philadelphia, but the rest of the state is wide open.

    In addition, anyone running should kinda be in by now. I see this as a 4 person race between Schwartz, McGinty, McCord, Wolf (Sestak has not announced).

  9. 1) Sestak is NOT running for governor. He wants Senate, so he can continue to live in VA with his wife and daughter.

    2) Sestak’s performance (in polls that include his name for gov) is based solely on his name recognition from his failed senate run.

    3) I like McCord, but his strategist is full of crap. (Note: the job requirement for a staffer is to make up spin for news quotes, since an honest answer would get him fired.) The honest answer is that Schwartz is the “big-dog” for the Dem primary and McCord doesn’t have the slightest chance against her. He’s consistently (far) behind her in every poll.

    If she runs, McCord will bow out.

    4) Sestak’s not running for Governor.
    (Yes, I know I said that already, but people still foolishly include him in the political calculations.)

  10. She is a strong, qualified, and talented leader. She will campaign hard against and unseat Corbett’s useless malaise over our state. She is a strong fighter for GLBT equality, women’s health, and economic fairness & growth.

  11. It is because Sestak has won every poll so far except the Progressive Summit straw poll where Schwartz had representatives put materials on the table when no one else did.

    I don’t know if Schwartz can beat Sestak. But the question is, does Sestak want Guv or Senate??

  12. Isn’t the real takeaway from the poll and memo that it basically ignores the name Joe Sestak. Really? A three-way race between McCord and Tom Wolf (talk about a man not quite in full).

  13. This poll seems suspicious. It seems like a poll that would over-represent a group or a geographical area.

    Schwartz has spent the money on polls because she has it to burn!

  14. Allyson Schwartz has now spent over $50,000 on polls for a race that is far away. That doesn’t exactly build confidence that she makes good decisions on how to spend money. Typical Democrat.

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