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FAU: Presidential Race Too Close to Call; Casey Holds Advantage Over McCormick


One race is too close to call, while the other is outside the margin of error in the latest battleground poll conducted by the Florida Atlantic University (FAU) Political Communication and Public Opinion Research Lab, along with Mainstreet Research.

The group surveyed three battleground states – Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin – and its results indicated that the race for the White House between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump is too close to call in all three.

In the Keystone State, Trump has a two-point edge over Biden among all voters (45-43%), as well as likely voters (47-45%) with a +/-3% margin of error.


“Neither side has a meaningful advantage in any of the three states at this time, said Dukhong Kim, associate professor of political science at FAU.

When the survey question turned to a three-candidate race, including independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., the race swung in favor of Biden, 41-39%, with Kennedy receiving eight percent among all voters. The numbers changed to 43-42 and seven among likely voters, still in Biden’s favor but within that MOE.

The group also surveyed 1,012 Pennsylvanians about the U.S. Senate race between Democratic Bob Casey Jr. and Republican challenger Dave McCormick. Casey, the incumbent, received 48 percent support from all voters, while McCormick polled at 40% with seven percent undecided. The lead was reduced by one point, 49-42%, among likely voters.

Not surprisingly, more than a third of those surveyed indicated that their most important issue was the economy (37%), followed by immigration (18%) and abortion (16%).

Respondents were also queried whether they believed that Trump is guilty of the crime he was accused of in New York State with half saying yes and 37% saying no, with 13% indicating they did not know. When asked if jail time was deserved, 47 percent stated no, while 42% said yes.

Among the overall sample, 49% say Trump is guilty of wrongdoing. This view is more prevalent among Black voters (69%), Hispanics (59%), and white voters with college degrees (50%) than for white voters without a college degree (40%), which is the only group where there is a plurality who do not believe in Trump’s guilt. The belief in guilt was also higher for women (54%) than for men (44%).

“Trump’s legal jeopardy maybe rallying part of his base,” said Kevin Wagner, Ph.D., co-director of FAU’s PolComLab and professor of political science. “Most of his supporters don’t believe he’s guilty, while Biden voters overwhelmingly think he committed crimes.”

One Response

  1. What kind of stupid headline is that! Too close to call, like some cheesy poll some cheese ball college ran 5 months out could in any universe “call”:the election. Pathetic display of journalism skills.

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