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First Quarter Fundraising Puts Untermeyer, Khan Ahead in Philly DA’s Money Race

District-Attorney-Seal-183px1First quarter finance reports have been filed for the Philadelphia District Attorney’s office, and Michael Untermeyer filed with the most cash on hand (COH) with Joe Khan in a close second.  

Untermeyer filed with $455,766 COH, Khan filed with $442,635.  Rich Negrin came in third with $189,121 COH.  According to Newsworks, Teresa Carr Deni was next with $154,861 COH (Deni’s finance reports were not filed on time with the city).  Lawrence Krasner filed with $127,592, Jack O’Neil filed $11,243, and Tariq El-Shabazz was in last place among Democrats with $10,425 COH.  

Untermeyer and Khan both led the pack in fundraising as well, bringing in $713,835 and $506,657 respectively.  Both candidates loaned money to their campaigns during the first quarter of the year though.  Untermeyer loaned $250,000 to his campaign to start the year.  Khan loaned $54,000 to his campaign.  No other Democrat loaned money to their campaigns.  

The campaigns will all be pushing to raise money for their election day operations, mainly ensuring poll workers and the support of ward leaders throughout the city.  

The Republican primary is not contested, with Beth Grossman running as the only candidate.  She filed with $4,818.35 COH.

18 Responses

  1. O2,we will go win your figure of 110 votes. Tariq 30, Negrin 18, Ut 17, O’neill 15,Krasner 12, Khan 10 and Deni 8. That being said here is where I think your wrong. You are OVERRATING the Fop support. The candidates that have performed well with the FOP support of late, also had the support of DOC, most of labor and the DOC connected ward leaders. Negrin does not have that. You are also UNDERRATING The Strength of UT with the support of Sabatina and his Fellow allied ward leaders. Just remember 1 year ago when Sab and His allies got his son elected to the senate BEATING Kevin Boyle, who not only the support of the FOP but the support of Doc and his labor and political allies. You also underrate O’neill with His DOC Support. I can picture an Irishman like O’neill doing just as well with the COPS as a LIBERAL Latino like NEGRIN. I even factored in ballot positions with my PICKS.

  2. Bungy,

    Perhaps. But I don’t see Deni getting the entire women’s vote anymore than I see El Shabazz get the entire Black vote.

    Krasner pulls votes from El Shabazz and whoever the next most libera candidate is. 98 isn’t going to get a no name as many votes as the FOP will get for Negrin. This is the FOP’s race. 98’s race (well, beside the one to see who gets indicted first) is over in city council.

    Untermeyer has previously struggled to get much traction despite spending money – I don’t see him faring any better this time.

    I’m still seeing El Shabazz get less than 3/4 of what Williams got, and Negrin getting what McCaffery got in 2009.

    I’m also not seeing the non-El Shabazz vote split too evenly – elections typically follow a curve which typically tracks ballot position but with one or two outliers. There are no clear lines between most of these people, and that means ballot order has an outsized role, and spending will keep some of them way behind.

    Give us your numbers.

  3. O2,Your vote totals for 3 candidates are too low. Deni is the only woman in the race and a sitting Judge. O’neill has the backing of DOC, which includes The Building trades(98 and Company)and some pretty strong ward leaders. Last but not least Untermeyer who has the backing of Sabatina(who puts out Huge numbers in his 56th Ward) and probably some fellow aligned northeast ward leaders. PLUS KRASNER.

  4. Bungy,

    I did do the math. In fact, based on turnout of 110,000, I got exactly what you got, %-wise, and Negrin won. Read my 4/5 post.

    I said El Shabazz would get 32,000. That’s comparable to your 30k, except I used 110k as the turnout instead of 100k. We’re both saying the same thing – he gets 30%. Williams only got 42%, and he got a lot of votes across racial boundaries. El Shabazz will get fewer votes from any race than Williams did.

    That 70% leaves plenty of room for the winning candidate to come in at 31% and take the prize. In 2009, there was 58% among the losing candidates, with #2 coming in at 30.2%. In this race, that would probably win.

    The only flaw in my analysis was I forgot Krasner. However, I don’t see Krasner hurting Negrin much. If anything, he hurts El Shabazz.

    I stand by my comments and my math – it’s Negrin by a few points, and he wins with a % in the low 30’s.

  5. Observer 2, AA’s make up 44% 0f the voters in Philly, COUNTING Republicans. You take out the R’s and you get around 50%. Around 100k voters will turn out. Out of that 50k will be AA’s. Tariq will get AT LEAST half of that for an easy 25k votes and maybe another 5k from the rest of the voters for an easy 30k worth of votes. That leaves 70k votes for 6 other non AA Candidates That seem to be pretty much splitting support. I ask you again to do the VERY simple math.

  6. Blacks in Philly won’t blindly vote for the guy Seth Williams chose as his replacement.

    I can see why Fina’s crew (bungy) would hope so though.

  7. Bungy,

    I disagree. First of all, “AA’s” are not “over 50%.” Second, I’m not convinced 100% of “AA’s” will vote for Seth’s right hand man, for various reasons. The question is how much guilt by association does Tariq have? And the next question is, does it matter, if you have only $10k in the bank and your tax debt exceeds your city salary? Let’s not generalize all Black and African-American votes as racially bound.

    Second, I don’t know why you think Deni has a lock on the majority of the “women’s vote.” At the moment, she is the only candidate to have alienated any women voters with her rape-is-a-service decision. She may be the only woman in the race, but she’s also the only candidate to have pissed women off. Come on now. Pat Blessington could get more women to vote for him. I give her a few thousand votes, tops.

    Next, a Rendell endorsement isn’t exactly ringing and may work against Khan. Krasner and the liberals? You mean there are liberals in Philly OTHER than those that would vote for El Shabazz, Negrin, Deni, or Khan?

    El Shabazz will obviously turn out the most votes per $ of campaign funding, by far, especially since he’s good at having no money. But I don’t see him winning. The TV ads won’t even mention his name and he doesn’t have the money to change that.

    It’s going to be a TV war between Negrin, Khan, and Unter-my-ass and the ballot position and name recognition will carry the day.

  8. Observer 2 you are not even close. Tariq will win this thing. Just do the math, AA’s make up over 50 % of the D vote and there is only 1 AA candidate TARIQ. To make matters worse the rest of the non AA candidates are splitting the major endorsements and or support such as, Deni getting the majority of the women’s vote, O’neill getting local 98 support, Negrin getting the FOP endorsement, Untermeyer getting Sabatina and his Pal ward leaders support , Khan getting Rendell’s endorsement and Krasner getting the Liberal support. That is 6 non AA candidates having to split 50% of the non AA vote, while Tariq is the only AA candidate. DO THE MATH.

  9. Concerned Philadelphian

    I didn’t see the reports for the controller race. Link?

  10. Crazy there is no mention of the controller race where Rhynhart out raised 12 year incumbent Butkovitz by over $60K

  11. Observer 2-

    You left out Krasner, who is going to have progressive support.

  12. This is tough to call. Nobody seems to be too busy campaigning.

    Negrin has the top ballot position which will give him a slight advantage but he isn’t raising funds the way Khan is.

    I don’t see El Shabazz getting even the black vote with 10k COH, nor do I see him winning even if he gets all of the black vote Williams got. Remember Williams did well in Center City. Also remember that El Shabazz was Williams right hand man, and with no money he may struggle to convince anyone that he’s different from Williams.

    At the moment I’d say Negrin 36,000, El Shabazz 32,000, Khan 26,000, Untermeyer 12,000, Deni 4,000, and O’Neill 1,000.

  13. Well, the Dems have COH (in total) about $10/voter (with expected turnout at 100,000 voters).

    Shabazz doesn’t need that much money to run, since he’s merely running for the black vote, as the only black DA candidate, in a large field of white candidates.

    Negrin’s FOP endorsement should be a disqualifier in a city that needs a strong DA to investigate police shootings.

    Untermeyer is spending a lot on ads, hoping to do what Wolf did with name recognition.

    Deni’s the judge who declared that the rape of a prostitute was “theft of services”. She’s not even qualified to be a human being, let alone DA. She makes Seth look good (and Seth tried stealing his mom’s nursing home money).

    Krasner’s got the civil rights experience to clean up and reform the abusive system we have now.

    Khan might be an okay second choice, but not a strong second choice.

    The Republican is probably spending about 25 cents for every vote she will get.

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