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FiveThirtyEight: 82% Chance Clinton Wins PA

Hillary ClintonHillary Clinton has a 81.6% chance of winning Pennsylvania and its twenty electoral votes on November 8th.

That’s the conclusion of Nate Silver and the other political forecasters at FiveThirtyEight.

GOP Presidential nominee Donald Trump has just a 18.1% shot at victory. The difference between the two is Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson, who’s odds they put at 0.3%.

When it actually comes to share of the vote, though, they project Clinton at 47.7%. Trump comes in at 40.1% while Johnson receives 11%.

Those numbers concern FiveThirtyEight’s polls-only model. Their polls-plus forecast, which includes economic and historical data, shows a slightly improved picture for Trump.

Still, though, Clinton’s chances at victory stand at 76.2%. Trump’s odds rise to 23.7% and Johnson’s fall to less than 0.1%.

This model gives Clinton and Trump 48.0% and 43.1% of the vote respectively. Johnson’s share would plummet to 7.7%.

If the election were held today, Clinton would have an 85.9% chance of victory as opposed to Trump’s 13.9% and Johnson’s 0.2%. They project Hillary getting 40.0% of the vote, Donald receiving 39.3% and Johnson snagging 13.5%.

These projections do not include the latest survey released by Ballotpedia today that showed Clinton with a 49% to 35% lead.

You can see FiveThirtyEight’s national forecast and read Nate Silver’s explanation of how they came to it by clicking the links. It would also be worth checking out the forecast’s methodology.  

12 Responses

  1. HaHaHa aka Brett COTT Have you paid any of the money back you stole from the citizens of Pennsylvania. You know the crime for which Fina put you in jail. Also did you pay taxes on that money you stole. Is it true the IRS is now involved.

  2. David and Like are both right with respect to Five Thirty Eight. Those guys do a great job.

    StatMan – per your link, Silver gave Brazil a 45% chance to win. Thus, there was a 55% chance (i.e., more likely than not) that Brazil would *not* win.

  3. RE: Lolol… Does anybody pay attention to this sports geek any more?
    From his OWN website, even now: “According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary.”

    This shows such a lack of understanding of statistics. Silver has predicted hundreds of outcomes over the years. You cite one where he said there was less than a 1 in 100 chance of an upset.That does not mean that upset NEVER happens. It means that it happens less than 1 out of 100 times. If you look at his overall record, such predictions are correct 99+% of the time. Which they SHOULD be. It should not be less than that, but it also should not be more than that.

    Long story short, he is the most accurate current prognosticator because he uses derived percentages that are empirically based and backed up by results. He got over 90% of his primary calls right. He has gotten 111 out of 112 calls correct in the past 2 general elections. Men lie. Women lie. Numbers don’t lie (they state a truth of a mean and standard deviation).

  4. This man Trump is a fake, a phony, a false prophet selling snake oil to a clueless & gullible support base that doesn’t understand even the bare basics about politics, the economy or the new world order. A Trump presidency will result in not only chaos & anarchy in the homeland but very likely World War 3 as a result of a dangerous & clueless amateur trying to run the world.

    Here is what the ignorant believe Trump is going to do.:

    1. Destroy the federal government as we know it.
    2. Kick butt
    3. Fire a bunch of minorities
    4. Get rid of Obamacare and watch the poor die. My previously unaffordable insurance is down to $85/month. My car insurance, from Insurance Panda, is now just $25/month. Under Trump, healthcare will be $500/month or more.
    5. Make the lives of poor kids, the sick, and the elderly worse than they already are.
    6. Drop a bunch of bombs on some colored people in some country somewhere.
    7. Build a wall.
    8. Cut taxes on the rich.

    Everyone should be petrified by the very thought of a Trump presidency.

  5. Observer-

    I realize it’s hard to see with your head up your ass, but Nate Silver’s track record is the best out there.

    In 2012, he predicted 50 out of 50 state outcomes for Obama vs Romney. I think he got 48 or 49 right in 2008.

    Primaries are notoriously harder to predict, and the polling not as good/frequent. The polling was particularly bad/weak for that primary. Nate Silver doesn’t conduct the polls, but rather analyzes them statistically, even accounting for the historical bias of the pollsters for adjustments.

  6. Lolol… Does anybody pay attention to this sports geek any more?

    From his OWN website, even now: “According to our final polls-plus forecast, Hillary Clinton had a greater than 99% chance of winning the Michigan primary.”


  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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