That’s the conclusion of Nate Silver and the other political forecasters at FiveThirtyEight.
GOP Presidential nominee Donald Trump has just a 18.1% shot at victory. The difference between the two is Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson, who’s odds they put at 0.3%.
When it actually comes to share of the vote, though, they project Clinton at 47.7%. Trump comes in at 40.1% while Johnson receives 11%.
Those numbers concern FiveThirtyEight’s polls-only model. Their polls-plus forecast, which includes economic and historical data, shows a slightly improved picture for Trump.
Still, though, Clinton’s chances at victory stand at 76.2%. Trump’s odds rise to 23.7% and Johnson’s fall to less than 0.1%.
This model gives Clinton and Trump 48.0% and 43.1% of the vote respectively. Johnson’s share would plummet to 7.7%.
If the election were held today, Clinton would have an 85.9% chance of victory as opposed to Trump’s 13.9% and Johnson’s 0.2%. They project Hillary getting 40.0% of the vote, Donald receiving 39.3% and Johnson snagging 13.5%.
These projections do not include the latest survey released by Ballotpedia today that showed Clinton with a 49% to 35% lead.