FiveThirtyEight Grades PA Pollsters

Muhlenberg
Muhlenberg College

Nate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website has released its first pollster ratings in four years.

Among the dozens and dozens of surveys that get factored into the 538 model, eight of them are based in the Keystone State.

Among them, Muhlenberg College received the best grade, earning an A-. Twenty of the firms polls since 1998 are included in the site’s model and Muhlenberg’s “mean-reverted bias” is R+0.5.

Franklin & Marshall finished second with a B+. Fifteen of their polls are included and their mean-reverted bias is also R+0.5.

Four firms all received C+ scores: Commonwealth Foundation (2 polls, R+0.3); Harper Polling (2 polls, D+0.1); Philadelphia Inquirer (4 polls, R+0.3) and Temple University (6 polls, R+0.4).

Susquehanna Polling & Research had twenty-seven surveys included, the most of any PA pollster. They only received a C score, though, with a D+0.2 mean-reverted bias.

At the back of the pack is Millersville University whose two polls brought them just a D- rating with a R+1.5 bias.

You can read Silver explain how FiveThirtyEight calculated their ratings here and view the raw data here.

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