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FiveThirtyEight Grades Pennsylvania’s Pollsters

MuhlenbergNate Silver’s FiveThirtyEight website has released their 2016 edition of pollster ratings.

Just like two years ago, a number of PA based firms were included.

Once again, Muhlenberg College finished on top with an A-. The firm had twenty-two of their polls analyzed and achieved a 91% success rate. Their “mean-reverted bias” was R+0.5.

Franklin & Marshall College came in second with a B+. Eighteen surveys were included that had a success rate of 94% and a MRB of R+0.4.

There was a three-way tie for third. The particulars of which are included below:

Susquehanna Polling & Research Inc. – 29 polls, 79%, B, D+0.1

Temple University – 6 polls, 100%, B, R+0.4

Philadelphia Inquirer – 4 polls, 100%, B, R+0.3

Harper Polling earned a B-. Their nine polls had a 100% success rate and a D+0.3 bias. West Chester University got a C+, and correctly predicted all races in their seven surveys. They had a D+0.2 bias.

Millersville University came in last again, although their grade improved to a D. They recorded an 80% success rate on five polls and a R+1.5 mean-reverted bias.

You can read Silver explain how FiveThirtyEight calculated their ratings here and view the raw data here.

5 Responses

  1. Pa Political always forgets about my hometown. Do some fact checking. You forgot Mercyhurst U and Tom Ridge School of Intelligence

  2. too bad no one did a poll on how much $ the DSCC had to pour in to buy the election for mcGinty.

  3. Should add factor for # of polls that organization has done. Someone could do a poll with obvious results, get it right & have a 100% rating.

  4. Did they see F&M’s polling of the Senate or Presidential race in PA? Guess not.

    F&M Poll: Sestak 33% McGinty 27% Fetterman 8% April 21
    Actual result: McGinty 42.50% Sestak 32.57% Fetterman 19.49%

    F&M Poll: Hillary 53% Bernie 28% March 21
    F&M Poll: Hillary 55% Bernie 29% April 21

    Actual result: Hillary 55.61% Bernie: 43.53%

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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