“Right now, Pennsylvania looks like the single most important state of the 2020 election,” is the opening sentence in an article published by FiveThirtyEight on Wednesday morning highlighting the importance of Pennsylvania for the presidential election.
The article titled, “Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2020 Election,” written by Nathaniel Rakich is the latest in a series of articles taking a deep dive into the importance of each swing state for the 2020 presidential election.
Rakich points to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast as proof that the Keystone State may be the determining state of who will win the presidency and is being dubbed a “tipping-point state.”
“According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is by far the likeliest state to provide either President Trump or Joe Biden with the decisive vote in the Electoral College: It has a 31 percent chance of being the tipping-point state,” Rakich writes. “In fact, Pennsylvania is so important that our model gives Trump an 84 percent chance of winning the presidency if he carries the state — and it gives Biden a 96 percent chance of winning if Pennsylvania goes blue.”
Rakich continues in the article to detail the state’s voting history for the presidential election and how the trend of voting for Democratic presidential candidates for six straight cycles was snapped in 2016. He also details the demographic trends that show the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh moving towards the Democratic Party, while “working-class western and northeastern Pennsylvania” have moved towards the Republican Party.
“As goes Pennsylvania, so goes the Electoral College,” Rakich writes.
The full FiveThirtyEight article breaking down Pennsylvania’s importance can be found here.