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FiveThirtyEight: PA “Looks Like” Most Important State for 2020 Election

“Right now, Pennsylvania looks like the single most important state of the 2020 election,” is the opening sentence in an article published by FiveThirtyEight on Wednesday morning highlighting the importance of Pennsylvania for the presidential election. 

The article titled, “Why Pennsylvania Could Decide The 2020 Election,” written by Nathaniel Rakich is the latest in a series of articles taking a deep dive into the importance of each swing state for the 2020 presidential election. 

Rakich points to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast as proof that the Keystone State may be the determining state of who will win the presidency and is being dubbed a “tipping-point state.”

“According to FiveThirtyEight’s presidential forecast, Pennsylvania is by far the likeliest state to provide either President Trump or Joe Biden with the decisive vote in the Electoral College: It has a 31 percent chance of being the tipping-point state,” Rakich writes. “In fact, Pennsylvania is so important that our model gives Trump an 84 percent chance of winning the presidency if he carries the state — and it gives Biden a 96 percent chance of winning if Pennsylvania goes blue.”

Rakich continues in the article to detail the state’s voting history for the presidential election and how the trend of voting for Democratic presidential candidates for six straight cycles was snapped in 2016. He also details the demographic trends that show the suburbs of Philadelphia and Pittsburgh moving towards the Democratic Party, while “working-class western and northeastern Pennsylvania” have moved towards the Republican Party. 

Biden currently leads Trump by 4.9 points in the state, according to the FiveThirtyEight polling average. The forecasted vote share from FiveThirtyEight has Biden at 51.9%, while Trump is at 47.4%. 

“As goes Pennsylvania, so goes the Electoral College,” Rakich writes. 

The full FiveThirtyEight article breaking down Pennsylvania’s importance can be found here.

7 Responses

  1. QuidProJoe didn’t do himself any good in Scranton last night. I heard questions, and I heard responses, but I didn’t hear any real answers. Joe’s outa juice. “Chicken manure!” Really?

  2. Trump has his faults, but I think people should consider the rioting in the streets, the BLM protests assaulting people at restaurants, burning buildings, the silencing of voices by businesses who disagree with the protesters, and that we haven’t had a strong Republican presence since Mike Stack. I’m. Oting Trump because I’m scared about the lack of logic displayed by the far left and communists inciting anarchy. Mike Stack wasn’t a perfect Republican and I disagree with much of their platform, but the communists and anarchists need to be stopped.

    This message is approved by gulag Puttsburgh between pleasuring he/him/their self to anti trump comments online.

  3. Be prepared for GOP ads to keep lying about Democrats. Dems of course, just have to have to have people turn into the news, 200,000 dead and the economy in shambles.

  4. Trump sucks dead worms because they remind him of himself, and Trump loves himself above everything.

  5. Biden going to Scranton is a stroke of genius for a Town Hall. That area embodies what Joe Biden is all about humility, goodness and decency. I know some think Scranton will go Trump but I think Joe’s warmth is valued right now more than ever and will rule the day and get a big vote out of Scranton.

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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