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F&M Poll: Biden Holds Steady Lead in PA Dem Primary

Since former Vice President Joe Biden formally announced his candidacy for the White House, he’s remained at the top of Pennsylvania Democratic primary polls. A new Franklin & Marshall College poll shows the Scranton native maintains a double digit lead in the crowded field hoping to face President Donald Trump in 2020. 

Biden leads the way with 30% of support in the Pennsylvania Democratic primary, while Sen. Elizabeth Warren holds 18%, followed by Sen. Bernie Sanders at 12%, and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 8%. All of the other Democratic presidential hopefuls polled at 2% or less in this latest poll, with 16% saying they are still undecided. 

This specific poll surveying 295 registered Democrats in Pennsylvania, collected data from October 21 to October 27 has a margin of error of +/-8.9 percent. 

Biden’s strongest support comes from those who identify as moderate Democrats with 40% choosing the former Vice President. Warren polls best with self identified liberal Democrats receiving 31% of their support, although Biden garners 24% of this group as well. 

This is the second straight F&M poll with Biden and Warren leading the way. In comparison to F&M’s poll in early August, Biden slightly added to his lead in the state, while Warren’s support only went down by 3%. Sanders support did not change from the previous F&M poll, while Buttigieg, who is in fourth place, received a two point bump since early August. 

Biden holds the most endorsements among Democratic elected officials in the state with Sen. Bob Casey and Reps. Brendan Boyle (D-Philadelphia), Matt Cartwright (D-Lackwanna), and Dwight Evans (D-Philadelphia) all formally supporting his bid for the White House. Since the most recent F&M poll in early August, two Philadelphia Democrats have pledged their support for Warren. Philadelphia Mayor Jim Kenney announced his endorsement for the Massachusetts Senator on Oct. 23, during the time period when the poll was being conducted, and Philadelphia District Attorney Larry Krasner announced his support for Warren on Oct. 30. 

Other Pennsylvania centric polls that have shown Biden at the top started from Emerson College conducted in late March to this F&M poll. 

See the full data here.

3 Responses

  1. Looking at the poll’s methodology, the numbers above are completely worthless. The MoE for Registered Dems is NINE percent! It was a PRE-selected group delivered by some marketing group, who were invited BY LETTER!!! LOLolololol… I.e., a sample that is GUARANTEED to underinclude the poor, the younger, the very older, POCs… Just completely Worthless. Should be re-named the Middle-class Middle-age White People Poll. Even Biden’s dumb campaign staff isn’t going to be fooled by these numbers.

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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