Today the eleventh straight poll released in PA showed her in the lead. Today’s survey came from Franklin & Marshall and it has Clinton ahead 47% to 40% against Donald Trump among likely voters.
With registered voters, the margin is smaller. Clinton is at 43% while Trump has 39%. This is surprising because likely voter polls usually favor Republican candidates.
Clinton’s lead also shrinks when third-party candidates are included. She gets 41% and Trump is at 38% when Libertarian Party nominee Gary Johnson and Green Party nominee Jill Stein are also involved. They received 7% and 2% respectively.
The former Secretary of State’s favorability fell considerably, probably a result of the convention bounce wearing off.
She recorded a 38% favorable (22% strongly, 16% somewhat) rating against a 54% unfavorable (46% strongly, 8% somewhat) rating. The silver lining is that Trump’s split remained worse.
Trump received a 37% favorable (23% strongly, 14% somewhat) rating as well as a 58% unfavorable (51% strongly, 7% somewhat) rating.
The Democratic nominee is ahead among the following groups: extremely liberal (88/4), Philadelphia residents (83/12), slightly liberal (78/6), Democrats (75/10), nonwhites (70/25), those that don’t own a gun (57/24), Allegheny residents (56/30), single never married (54/28), those making $35,000 a year or less (52/34), religiously unaffiliated (51/29), retirees (51/32), not currently married (51/33), those with a college degree (50/30), those who aren’t born again Christian or Fundamentalist (49/31), over 55 years old (48/35), females (47/37), under 35 years old (46/32), moderates (46/33), Southeast residents (45/31), part-time workers (44/38), those making $35,000 to $75,000 a year (43/34), whites (42/39), those making over $75,000 a year (42/41), full-time employees (41/40), Catholics (41/40) and Southwest residents (39/36).
The two nominees tied with males (40/40).
The Republican nominee is ahead among the following groups: extremely conservative (81/5), slightly conservative (73/5), Republicans (73/8), gun owners (65/19), Northwest residents (64/24), born again Christian or Fundamentalist (58/28), Central residents (50/31), 35 to 54 year olds (49/36), high school graduate or less (48/39), Protestants (47/38), those with some college (45/36), married (44/37), independent or something else (42/28) and Northeast residents (42/35).
Franklin and Marshall also asked respondents a number of questions concerning the candidates’ personal attributes.
Clinton lead on five of the nine questions: has the experience to be President (55/20), is most prepared to handle foreign policy issues (55/25), beliefs are closest to how you feel about value issues (42/29), has the character and good judgment needed to be President (40/27) and best understands the concerns of ordinary Americans (40/36).
Trump was ahead on the other four questions: will best protect the United States against terrorism (41/40), is most prepared to fix our economic problems (42/40), will change government policies in a way that makes your life better (38/34) and is the most honest and trustworthy (33/27).
It’s clear the convention bounce is over for Hillary Clinton. Last month’s Franklin and Marshall poll was her best and there was a noticeable decline.
Additionally, as Terry Madonna noted, last month included an unusually high amount of Democrats in their survey. In July, the Dems had a 14 point self-identification (53/39). This month it was just two points (47/45).
It could be argued, however, that these results are therefore more impressive than last month’s. It’s easy to get a great number when the winds are in your favor, to hold onto a solid lead afterward is much more difficult.
This poll was conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs. They surveyed 736 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 496 likely voters, from August 25th to August 29th. The margin of error is +/- 4.6% for the registered voters results and +/- 5.6% for the likely voters results.