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F&M Poll: Fetterman, Mastriano Expand Leads

The latest Center for Opinion Research Poll at Franklin & Marshall College shows that Democratic senate candidate John Fetterman and Republican gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano are expanding their respective leads.

And while Mehmet Oz continues to lead the GOP Senate race, none of the major candidates have been able to surpass the 20 percent mark in support, leaving the race open for the taking over the final days.



Fetterman, the current lieutenant governor of the Commonwealth, has expanded his lead against Conor Lamb, Malcolm Kenyatta and Alex Khalil to a resounding 39 percent and became the first PA candidate in this cycle to surpass 50 percent, receiving 53 percent support. Lamb, the U.S. representative, remains in the mid-teens (14%), while Kenyatta, a PA state representative, remained at four percent. Twenty-two percent of respondents remain unsure or are undecided – a reduction of four percent since the last F&M poll in April and by 22 percent since March.

Sixty-seven percent of the respondents said that they are strongly or somewhat favorable to Fetterman, while only eight percent of Democrats hold an unfavorable opinion of the former Braddock mayor. Lamb has a 46 percent favorable and just nine percent unfavorable.

Eight percent of respondents said that they lean toward Fetterman, while Khalil pulled in six percent leaning her way.

Mastriano increased his advantage from the previous F&M poll from three to eight percent, polling at 20 percent. Bill McSwain was second, holding steady at 12 percent, while Lou Barletta (10%) and Dave White (8%) each picked up share.

A whopping 51 percent of respondents did not have an opinion of Mastriano, who also had 29 percent favorable and 12 percent unfavorable numbers. Barletta had stronger favorables (31%), while McSwain and White were at 27 and 23 percent, respectively.

Four percent of respondents said they were leaning toward McSwain, while Mastriano, Barletta and Melissa Hart each pulled in three percent.

The favorables for the top two GOP Senate candidates – McCormick and Oz – fell 31 and 29 percent, respectively, while the unfavorables were resounding for Oz at 41 percent compared to just 17 for McCormick.

Oz took top honors for the question “If the Republican primary were being held today, who would you vote for” with 18 percent of the responses to just 16 for McCormick. That is an uptick of 2 points for the celebrity doctor and a single marker for the former hedge fund CEO.

Kathy Barnette made a big move, jumping five points to 12 percent, while Carla Sands held steady at five percent. Jeff Bartos suffered the biggest decline, losing four percent to just two points.

Seven percent of respondents leaned toward Oz, compared to just three percent for McCormick.


Other key takeaways from the F&M Poll:

  • Just 25 percent of the respondents feel that the country is headed in the right direction, while 67 percent feel the direction is off on the wrong track. That is a loss of four points to the positive and a plus of six to the negative.


  • The most important problems facing Pennsylvania continues to be government and politicians (21%), followed by economy and finances (14%).


  • Only 15 percent of respondents feel they are better off today than a year ago, while 43 percent say they are not.


  • While 72 percent of respondents felt they were satisfied with the rules and procedures that govern elections in August 2020, the number has dropped considerably to 43 percent. While only one percent of those polled though voter ID to be an issue in August 2020, that number tops the list at 26 percent in May 2022. And the number has also swung for mail-in voting from six to 19 percent.


  • Just under two-thirds of all respondents (64%) favor open primaries that would allow any voter to participate in PA primaries. That percentage fell three percent since August 2020.


  • Governor Tom Wolf’s favorables improved over the last month, rising from 38 to 40 percent.


The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted April 20 – May 1, 2022. The data included in this release represent the responses of 792 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 357 Democrats, 352 Republicans, and 110 independents. The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.4 percentage points (+/- 6.8 Republicans only, +/- 6.5 Democrats only) when the design effects from weighting are considered.


11 Responses

  1. This poll is only registered voters, meaning Lou Barletta is by no way in third place. Lou Barletta is in a statistical tie with Doug Mastriano.

  2. GOP Gov will depend on who did the best job with mail in voters, but more importantly with GOP voters who has the best GOTV apparatus on election day. GOP Senate is down to McCormick v OZ, same applies, who best gets out the vote.

  3. Trafalgar the best and most accurate Republican pollster is holding true for Mastriano. The result is etched in stone. His political signs are in country areas and some in cities. The Republican voter has spoken and it’s for Mastriano. He’s that candidate that his party loves but will not appeal to even a few Dems. Governor looks good for Dems. Oz is a huge problem and Fetterman is a mediocre debater and this is not a good mix for Dems.

    1. Oz will get drug down by Mastriano. Mastriano will ruin the whole ticket for Rs.

      1. Gotta agree. If Oz the Turk is the senate nominee, he both depresses R turnout and increases D turnout. Mastriano – with his J6 buses – Makes it even worse for Oz. Rs only hope is McCormick, for the down-ballot races. But Fett cleans the hedge fund guy’s clock in their head to head. Down-ballot, McCormick may help other Rs even if he loses. Oz helps no Rs, and may even kill a few. Mastriano won’t win, and has negative coattails. No one, literally no one, will tout a Mastie endorsement.

  • Do you agree that ByteDance should be forced to divest TikTok?

    • Yes. It's a national security risk. (60%)
    • No. It's an app used by millions and poses no threat. (40%)
    • What's ByteDance? (0%)

    Total Voters: 30

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