F&M Poll: Fetterman, Shapiro Lead by Double Digits


Double the pleasure … double the fun.

John Fetterman and Josh Shapiro have double-digit leads in their respective races in the latest Franklin & Marshall College poll released this morning.

Fetterman, the Democratic lieutenant governor, leads GOP opponent Mehmet Oz, 43-30, although the race tightens when those who are leaning toward a candidate are included (45-36%). Fetterman receives a larger share of Democrats (76%) than Oz receives among Republicans (62%) and the former mayor of Braddock also has a 34-17 lead among independent voters.

In terms of favorability, Fetterman is a +7 (43 favorably, 36 unfavorably), while Oz is underwater at -30 (27-57).

Shapiro, the Democratic Attorney General of the Commonwealth, has an 11-point advantage over Republican state senator Doug Mastriano, 44-33%. Shapiro also receives a larger share of his party’s support (76%) than Mastriano does for his (66%) and the former Montgomery County commissioner also leads among independent voters (40-24).

In terms of favorability, Shapiro is a +12 (44-32), while Mastriano is a -21 (28-49).

In the PoliticsPA average of all polls, Fetterman and Shapiro lead by 10.1 and 8.2 percentage points, respectively.

President Joe Biden’s overall performance rating is unchanged since May, as only 34 percent believe his is doing an “excellent” or “good” job in office. Only one in four (27%) registered voters believes that Pennsylvania is “headed in the right direction,” while nearly three in five (59%) registered voters oppose amending the state constitution to say there is not constitutional right to abortion in the state.

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted August 15 – 21, 2022. The data included in this release represent the responses of 522 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 234 Democrats, 214 Republicans, and 74 independents. The sample error for this survey is +/- 5.3 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered.

9 Responses

  1. PoliticsPA can headline all of the push polls they want, but another poll came out today (Susquehanna) showing Fetterman’s lead shrinking to 5 points. Fetterman can run but he can’t hide.

  2. While the polls may show leads for the Democratic candidates, there is no reason to rest on our laurels. A lot can happen in three months. Even though he’s behind, Mastriano still scares me.

  3. PoliticsPa has become so biased and dishonest. You trumpet a small-sample registered voter outlier poll and ignore a Emerson poll of Likely voters with twice the sample size that came out on the same day which shows only a 4=point difference.

    You Dems can feel it slipping away and you are soooo scared.

    1. Of course an “outlier poll” would by definition not be at the midpoint of the polling average. Maybe better to learn what words mean before you toss them around.

      1. You need to catch up on the current stats. The RCP poll average is Fetterman +7.8, so a poll showing Fetterman +13 is definitely an outlier, unless you throw in all of those partisan push-polls that PoliticsPA loves to showcase. Nothing sadder than a lib trying to be clever.

    2. The Emerson poll also asked about a Biden v Trump rematch and it had Trump winning by 5 points. Highly unlikely in a state where his best result was a 0.5% win in 2016.


  • Who are you voting for in the PA Supreme Court race?

    • Dan McCaffery (61%)
    • Carolyn Carluccio (37%)
    • Still undecided (2%)

    Total Voters: 344

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