F&M Poll: Hillary 55% Bernie 29%

Hillary ClintonThere hasn’t been much change in the F&M in the past month.

The latest survey from Franklin & Marshall shows Clinton leading Sanders 55% to 29%. For likely voters, the matchup is 58% to 31% in Hillary’s favor.

Furthermore, Clinton leads among all demographics except for those under 35 years old.

In addition, Clinton supporters are more likely than Sanders supporters to say they are “certain” about their vote choice, 87% to 76%.

Finally, the former Secretary of State recorded a favorability rating of 69% against an unfavorable rating of 25%. The Vermont Senator is also in similar positive territory, recording a 66/24 favorable/unfavorable split.

This poll was conducted by the Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs. They surveyed 510 registered Democratic voters from April 11th to April 18th. The margin of error is +/- 4.2%.

13 Responses

  1. Steven Todd repeated proves to be one of the stupider people commenting on a site full of stupid people.

  2. Also if Bernie Sanders invents a rocketship that will take him thru a black hole and back in time he can get something done in the Senate and be president!

  3. steventodd-

    Like in NY?

    … Oh … wait… she over-performed the polls there.

    The “reliable pattern” is that Hillary does well in states that are demographically representative of the Democratic party.

    Public Policy Polling has newer poll (Apr 22-24) with Hillary 51-41 (+10 for the math challenged)

    The +8 poll was taken Apr 20-22

    FiveThirtyEight is projecting it as a 12-14 point race, with Hillary’s chances of winning around 98%

  4. Must be old or bad data. Or both?

    “A scant 24 hours before the polls open…Democrat Hillary Clinton holds just an 8-point lead over Sen. Bernie Sanders of Vermont.”


    Great going, Berners. This is becoming a reliable pattern: huge Clinton lead until it counts, then almost no lead.

    If we can take 73% of CA (which is what we took in WA, with similar expected in OR) and just break even everywhere else, it is tie (a few more Sanders actually) on committed delegates. This makes it impossible for all super delegates in those states where their bosses voted overwhelmingly Sanders to not jump ship.

  5. So why does PoliticsPa print results of polls with incredibly poor track records and obvious methodological flaws (e.g. only landline samples), while ignoring polls with a better track record and more credibility? I don’t know the answer, but I suspect their bias is showing.
    These days polls with no credibility and non-reporting of election irregularities (which were in open sight in New York) are the order of the day with the media. They probably know most of us are not that stupid, but they don’t care.

  6. CPEC LLC-

    Sorry, but given you having Hillary over Bernie by 29 points in your poll, it doesn’t seem credible.

  7. Looks like you need a new PR director CPEC. Either that or spin off your polling into a separate entity so it doesn’t look like you’re just using it to sell services.

  8. So how did we compare to those posted in 2014?

    Actual Results:-Wolf 57.86%, Schwartz 17.64%, McCord 16.84%, McGinty 7.66%
    CPEC LLC:——-Wolf 57.62%, Schwartz 19.17%, McCord 16.72%, McGinty 6.49%
    F&M Poll:——-Wolf 37%, Schwartz 20%, McCord 12%, McGinty 3%
    Harper Poll:—-Wolf 50%, McCord 15%, Schwartz 15%, McGinty 5%

    Yet PoliticsPA keeps printing polls that were not even close while not even acknowledging the most accurate polling in the State of Pennsylvania over the last 3 years.

  9. So what did polls did PoliticsPA post in 2014?

    F&M Poll: Wolf 37%, Schwartz 20%, McCord 12%, McGinty 3%
    Harper Poll: Wolf 50%, McCord 15%, Schwartz15%, McGinty 5%
    I am sure there were others, but not CPEC’s Poll.

  10. At least Politics PA chose to print the F&M poll. I submitted ours on Thursday evening and did not even get a mention. Oh well they seem to think we are not credible despite the fact in 2014, we were the only poll to have Governor Wolf over 50% and our poll was only off by the following:

    Candidate Actual CPEC Poll Difference
    Wolf 57.86% 57.62% 0.24%
    Schwartz 17.64% 19.17% 1.53%
    McCord 16.84% 16.72% 0.12%
    McGinty 7.66% 6.49% 1.17%

    That poll had a calculated Margin of Error of +/-2.8%, and actual margin of error of +/-1.53%. The average error for the Governor’s race was only 0.765%.

    So what does out poll show for 2016? You won’t find it here! We did post it on our Facebook page. The full counts and cross tabs are also available. Just follow the instructions on our page. Thank you PoliticsPA!

  11. This is that same sh*tty poll with sh*tty methodology from the other day.

    It’s an embarrassment and a factor of two wider than other polls.

    After Tuesday, “Center for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College on behalf of the Center for Politics and Public Affairs” should come to PoliticsPA and post a formal apology.

Comments are closed.

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