F&M Poll: Oz, Mastriano Hold Slim Leads

The latest Franklin & Marshall College poll released Thursday shows tight races for the GOP nominations for Senate and Governor.

Mehmet Oz has a one-point advantage over David McCormick among 317 Republican voters, 16 to 15 percent. Kathy Barnette came in third at seven percent, followed by Jeff Bartos (6%), Carla Sands (5%) and George Bochetto (2%). Forty-three percent of the respondents indicated that they did not know, while six percent noted “someone else.” This is a turnaround since the March poll which showed McCormick with a 13-11 lead over Sands and a three-point edge over Oz. Thirty-two percent of respondents indicated they were certain of their May 17 choice.

The data for this survey was almost finished went former president Donald Trump offered his endorsement for Oz. The celebrity heart surgeon was leading among those who identified with the Trump faction of the party with 22 percent, while 36 percent were undecided.

In the gubernatorial race, Doug Mastriano held a three-point lead over Bill McSwain, 15 to 12 percent, while Lou Barletta also finished in double figures (10%). Dave White was fourth (5%), while Melissa Hart and Joe Gale each received three percent. The race is clearly up for grabs, as 40 percent of the respondents indicated they did not know while seven percent responded “someone else.”

John Fetterman holds a commanding lead in the chase for the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate. The lieutenant governor received 41 percent support of the 356 Democratic respondents to just 17 percent for Conor Lamb. His lead increased from 13 to 24 percent since the last F&M release in March. Malcolm Kenyatta came in at four percent. Fifty-three percent of respondents indicated they were certain of their choice.

In a generic ballot for all respondents, 44 percent said they would vote for the Republican choice for the House of Representatives in their district, opposed to 37 percent for the Democratic nominee.

Other findings include:

20 percent think the U.S. is headed in the right direction. 74 percent believe it’s on the wrong track.

29 percent think Pennsylvania is headed in the right direction. 57 percent believe it’s on the wrong track.

20 percent think government and politicians are the biggest problem facing PA today.

63 percent favor the elimination of the property tax

70 percent think that public schools in the state should teach students about the history of race and
racism in America

64 percent support passing a law in Pennsylvania that requires athletes to participate in sports based on their gender assigned at birth

33 percent believe that President Joe Biden is doing a good or excellent job

38 percent believe that Governor Tom Wolf is doing a good or excellent job

The survey findings presented in this release are based on the results of interviews conducted March 30 – April 10, 2022. The data included in this release represent the responses of 785 registered Pennsylvania voters, including 356 Democrats, 317 Republicans, and 112 independents. The sample error for this survey is +/- 4.2 percentage points when the design effects from weighting are considered.

17 Responses

  1. Mastriano is too far-right for the Philly and Pittsburgh metros. If GOPers nominate him, Shapiro wins 53-47%.

  2. At the moment, Josh Shapiro has more cash on hand than all the GOP gov candidates combined. He doesn’t have a primary challenge, and will have even more money at the end of May.

    The GOP “winner” campaign will be flat broke, and have a divided party.

  3. F&M. GOP poll:

    Who would make the shittiest elected officials?
    Oz: Charletan pushing fake treatments
    Mastriano: Anti-democracy seditionist who signed on as a fake elector

    Really the cream of the shit barrel.

  4. Would everyone just pleaaaase vote for me? I’m out of cash and this is the only advertising I can afford now. I really thought I was hot sh*t with the Lamb dynasty and PNC Bank fronting my whole campaign, but I should have just stayed in my district. Seriously you guys, everyone loves me!

    1. And maybe I should have refused to accept the offer of Joe Biden and Josh Shapiro to add my name to the 4am illegal votes arriving from NewYork on 11/4/2020….? But, I REALLY wanted to win!

      1. No illegal votes arrived from NY on 11/4/2020

        Every weekday in October and thru mid November 2020, the PA state Dept provided an electronic file with EVERY voter (with their unique voter ID) that had requested a mail in ballot, as well as when the ballots were sent, and when they were received back to their counties and logged in.

        Drop boxes were locked/sealed at 8pm election day, and those final ballots were recorded once they arrived at county voter services.

        It’s literally impossible for anyone to generate thousands of fake ballots without detection.
        1) the ballots have to be from people on the list who didn’t turn in ballots in the file prior to election day
        2) there is no way to know which of them put a ballot in the drop box, or decide to void the ballot and vote in person.
        3) any false ballot matching a voterv who voted in person or drop box would be instantly detected from the bar code on the envelope before it was even opened.
        No such false ballots occurred and the vote tabulations matched the daily records of requested ballots.

  5. McSwain is the GOPs only chance to win Governor. It is the ultimate blessing for him what Trump did because it give the sane Republican voters clear direction on who to support to start purging the idiot Trump and his insane followers from the party. McSwain now has a clear path to 24% of the May Primary vote which will be just enough to win

    1. Sorry, inspector. Not a tiny sample at all. What other recent, independent polls make it an outlier?

      1. Conor recently did an internal poll of PNC Bank executives and it had Lamb down by only 20, so there’s that.

  6. Garbage poll. They didn’t test people who leaned towards a candidate. Way too many undecideds.

  7. Ooops…My error BEFORE the devastating Trump letter. Trump went out of his way to insult McSwain. And it got media play. Everybody heard of the letter. Not good in a primary where Trump is important.

  8. McSwain poll numbers came AFTER the devastatingly harsh Trump letter that was all over the media. McSwain numbers are way off. Trumper’s are not going to vote for him. THe poll is not accurate.

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  • When Should The Special Elections For The PA House Be Held?


    • May 16, 2023 (Primary Day) (51%)
    • March, 2023 (47%)
    • April, 2023 (2%)

    Total Voters: 173

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