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F&M Poll: Pennsylvania Becomes More Polarized, Trump’s Support Slightly Down

tmadonnaThe latest Franklin & Marshall poll showed that Pennsylvanians are becoming more polarized in their support of Governor Tom Wolf, while Senator Bob Casey sees a highwater mark for favorability, and President Trump’s support has dropped in the state.  

In the poll, 36% of registered voters favorable opinion of Wolf, mostly in line with his numbers throughout his tenure.  Wolf’s strongly favorable numbers saw a large increase, up to 16% from 12% in the last poll.  Wolf’s unfavorables also saw a stark increase.  34% of voters had a strongly unfavorable opinion of Wolf, the highest of his tenure, up from 19% in the last poll.  Wolf’s job performance is underwater, with 55% of voters saying he is doing a “fair” or “poor” job.  

Casey’s favorability hit a new high (since February 2009) of 45%, with 17% strongly and 28% somewhat favorable.  37% of voters also said that Casey was doing an “excellent” or “good” job, compared to 42% saying he is doing a “fair” or “poor” job.  

53% of voters in the state said Trump is doing a “poor” job so far, while only 29% said he is doing an “excellent” or “good” job.  Trump’s strongest support in the state comes from the southwest and northwest, and self-described conservatives.  Trump’s strongest opposition comes from the two major cities with 59% of voters in Allegheny county and 57% in Philadelphia described themselves as Trump opponents.  

The two Republican statewide candidates F&M polled on have name recognition problems currently.  State Senator and Gubernatorial candidate Scott Wagner (R-York) has an 8% favorable rating and 9% unfavorable rating, with 77% not knowing enough about him to form an opinion.  Congressman and Senate candidate Lou Barletta (R-Luzerne) has similar numbers with a 15% favorable and 9% unfavorable, but 68% saying they do not know enough about him.  

F&M polled 398 registered voters from September 13th through 18th.  Respondents were contacted by letter and given the choice between phone interview or online interview. The margin of error is plus or minus 6.2%

F&M calculates job approval differently than most pollsters that tends to result in lower ratings – regardless of party. Respondents choose between a rating of excellent, good, fair, and poor. The approval numbers are pulled from the excellent and good categories.

5 Responses

  1. In PA the increased polarization is progress. Before they were just all HATERS for Trump. Now some people are wising up and becoming sane again, so polarization is increased.

  2. in my travels through the depressed SW pa counties of Greene, Fayette, and somerset counties last fall, i saw GOP yard signs where i had never seen any signs , for decades. maybe the professional pollsters should drive the roads instead of calling landlines or cell phones to do their ‘surveys.’

  3. Terry Madonna has a less than reliable record in polling elections. Donald Trump trails Hillary Clinton by 11 points in Pennsylvania, new [Terry Madonna] F&M poll finds• Lancasteronline Nov 1, 2016 • SAM JANESCH | Staff Writer
    Hillary Clinton’s lead over Donald Trump in Pennsylvania has grown to a substantial 11 points, a week before election day, a new Franklin & Marshall College poll shows.

  4. Of course Wolf is going to get all the blame, even though the Republicans control the entire state legislature thanks to gerrymandering. Never blame Republicans. It’s always the Democrat’s faults even when their state legislature is controlled by a majority of the opposite party.

    It must be nice to have the benefit of double standards.

    1. When its the Dems the response is “those liberal tax and spend Democrats”. When its the Republicans the response is, “well, both sides do it”.

  • Does the NYC Verdict Make You More or Less Likely to Vote For Trump in 2024?

    • Less Likely (36%)
    • More Likely (34%)
    • Makes No Difference (30%)

    Total Voters: 112

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