Fox 29 Poll: Senate Race Too Close to Call; Governor Tightening

Dr. Oz and John Fetterman
According to the latest InsiderAdvantage/FOX 29 poll, the race for the U.S. Senate is a statistical dead heat. In a survey of 550 likely voters, Democratic candidate John Fetterman has less than a percentage-point edge over Republican nominee Mehmet Oz, 46.3 to 45.8 percent. Libertarian candidate Erik Gerhardt polled at 1.8 percent, while five percent still indicated that they were undecided. The poll has a margin of error of 4.2%. While the celebrity doctor has a +9.4 advantage with men, it is offset by the lieutenant governor’s +10.1 edge with women. The split among whites is 0.2 toward the Democrat, while Fetterman also holds a +12.1 lead with older voters who are 65 and up. Oz maintains a +8.1 advantage among voters 40-64, while those under 40 are equally divided. InsiderAdvantage Chairman Matt Towery says Fetterman’s shrinking lead was a result of self-described independent voters breaking for Oz by 20 points. “Oz is also picking an unusually high 14 percent of the African American vote and Asians and Hispanics prefer Oz say they are voting for Oz by a wide margin,” Towery explained. The poll also surveyed preferences in the gubernatorial race and indicated that things have tightened a bit since the last query in mid-September. Democratic candidate Josh Shapiro maintains a 6.3 percentage point lead over Republican Doug Mastriano, 48-5 to 42.2 percent. This is the smallest margin in the last nine polls and the closest since students from Phillips Andover found a 3.4-point lead for the PA Attorney General in September. Libertarian candidate Matt Hackenberg finished with 2.2 percent support, while 6.1 percent said they were unsure or undecided. “The race for Governor of Pennsylvania has tightened with Shapiro back under the 50 percent he enjoyed in our previous survey,” Towery explained. “Mastriano has gained among independent voters who are breaking his way by nearly 18 points.” Mastriano, the state senator from Franklin County, polled best among men (+2.6%) and voters 40-64 (+4.3). Shapiro was strongest among women (+14.2), African-Americans (+46.9) and voters older than 65 (+17.3). The Democrat also showed strength among younger voters (+10.9).

4 Responses

  1. So Mastriano is leading Shapiro by 20 points with independents and Oz by similar margins? But Oz is only winning white voters 54-46? This makes no sense.

  2. Advantage is now saying Mastriano has over taken Shapiro? Was the Poll limited to Mastriano household?

  3. I take Insider Advantage polls with a grain of salt. There is no way Mastriano is gaining on Shapiro.

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