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FOX43/SP&R Poll: Biden 46, Trump 41

Another poll shows former Vice President Joe Biden holding a lead over President Donald Trump in the Keystone State. 

According to a new poll from FOX43/Susquehanna Polling and Research, 46% of respondents said they would definitely or probably vote for Biden, while 41% said that they would definitely or probably vote for a second term of Trump. 8% are undecided. Biden’s lead is beyond the margin of error, and remains relatively unchanged from the FOX43/SP&R poll released in late April that showed Biden besting Trump by 6 points, 48-to-42. 

49% polled are registered Democrats, while 42% are registered Republican, but Susquehanna P&R President Jim Lee said that nearly a “quarter identified their voting habits were more closely aligned with being an Independent,” which plays in Biden’s favor. 

“Biden leads with them. That’s important in a swing state like PA,” Lee said. 

The pollster surveyed voters who have voted in at least one election in 2016 or later, or who registered after the 2019 election. 

Biden gets the best of Trump in several categories, although the president has an advantage on the issue most important to them for the upcoming election- the economy. Trump leads Biden 51-to-36 among those who viewed the economy as the most important issue, while Biden bests Trump among COVID-19 voters, 64-to-27, on race relations’ voters, 70-to-23, and healthcare voters, 56-to-33. 

Biden’s consistent numbers could raise some concerns for Rep. Scott Perry’s (R-York) reelection bid. While the latest polling didn’t specify Trump’s numbers in south central Pennsylvania, FOX43/SP&R’s April poll showed Biden leading Trump 46-to-44 in the FOX43 viewing area, which includes the 10th district. 

Perry’s race against Democrat Eugene DePasquale, the term limited Auditor General, is listed as a Toss Up by the Cook Political Report

The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 6.3 points in Pennsylvania. This FOX43/SP&R poll remains consistent with the current RCP average and is slightly better news for the Trump campaign in comparison to a New York Times/Siena College poll released last week showing Biden holding a 10 point lead, 50-to-40, in Pennsylvania. 

FOX43 News will further report the numbers in its 4p and 5p broadcasts Monday.

Wolf Net Approval on COVID-19 Drops 43 Points

Gov. Tom Wolf’s approval rating on COVID-19 has come back to earth. In this latest poll, 49% of registered or likely voters said that they approve of Wolf’s management of the coronavirus, while 42% disapprove, and 9% are undecided. 

This is a significant shift from the FOX43/SP&R poll in late April that showed 68% of respondents approved of Wolf’s management of the coronavirus, while 18% disapproved, and 13% said that they were unsure.

“Falling poll numbers are natural because they were so high to begin with,” Lee told FOX43. However, he added, voters are, “losing patience with a perceived lack of transparency from the governor’s office, in terms of press conferences before reporters were allowed to ask questions in person, and the metrics the governor used to determine which counties could move up in re-opening phases, and which businesses were given waivers to stay open.” 

Institutional Racism Exists, But Not Widespread in America’s Law Enforcement Agencies. 

SP&R asked: “When it comes to the culture of our judicial system, on everything from the manner in which alleged criminals are investigated and prosecuted by law enforcement agencies, to the criminal sentences handed down by judges and courts, do you think institutional racism exists in this culture or does not exist?” 47% said institutional racism exists, 30% said it doesn’t. 

A comparison between two recent polls, SP&R and NYT/Sienna, shows how nuanced public opinion is on the subject of race, policing and criminal justice. Even slight differences in questions yielded very different responses. 

SP&R asked: “Do you think there is widespread racism in America’s law enforcement agencies and police departments, or do you think it is mainly confined to only a small number of bad cops?” 77% said it was a small number of bad cops, and 18% said widespread racism. 

NYT/Sienna asked: “In general, do you think that the police are more likely to use deadly force against a black person, more likely to use deadly force against a white person, or do you think race does not affect police use of deadly force?” 57% said police are more likely to use deadly force against a Black person, while 34% said race does not affect police use of deadly force. 

SP&R surveyed 715 Pennsylvania voters between June 15 to June 23. The poll has a margin of error of +/-3.7% at the 95% confidence level. While SP&R has a reputation of being a GOP-leaning pollster, the analysts at FiveThirtyEight grade them as slightly leaning towards Democrats. 

The full story from FOX43 can be found here.

6 Responses

  1. Totally agree. You are looking At a potential sweep of House seats like DePasquale, Cartwright and Fitzpatrick–these districts all going Dem.

  2. I am as anti-Trump as they come but I see this poll being more realistic than the Siena poll. I just do not buy that Biden has a 10 point lead. There are huge areas of this state where Trump can never do a thing wrong and people just completely ignore commonsense.

      1. Mrs. Diano fell for that sort of math and she seems, well, awfully disappointed with life.

    1. In other words, we have some pretty stupid people in PA. So true. And lots of racists too.

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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