Is Pennsylvania still a swing state? Or is the Keystone State headed the route of Florida and Ohio as former states that were once up for grabs on Election Night?

The latest voter registration numbers from the Department of State show that while both Democrats and Republicans have lost numbers since last October, statistics show that the bleeding from the Democratic Party has closed the GOP deficit to just 176,000 voters.

Democrats have shed 4.25% of its voters since our last map in October, while Republicans have seen nearly 1.3% leave the fold.

What should also be troubling to the ActBlue crowd is that its traditional urban strongholds are seeing big changes. Philadelphia Democrats saw a 3.8% drop, while Allegheny County, the home of Pittsburgh, drained 4.5% of the Dem totals. And Berks County, a mainstay in Pennsylvania’s Latino Belt, shed 4.7 percent of registered Democrats.

To be fair, Republicans have not added to their totals. Rather, the Grand Old Party has shed fewer voters than its main rival.

The top two counties for registered Republicans in the state – Allegheny and Montgomery – saw 2.4 and 1.6 percent drops, while York, Delaware and Chester counties also saw 2% dips. Bellwether counties such as Lancaster (-0.8%) nearly held steady, while “purple” Bucks County saw a change of just 0.7 percent.

While one might expect independent ranks to have swelled with reduced numbers in the major parties, those registered with “no affiliation” also saw a slight drop of 0.7 percent.

Among age-groups, Democrats still hold a 6-13 percent advantage in registration among the 18-24, 25-34 and 35-44 cohorts, while Republicans maintain a 2-9 percent edge among those 45-54 and 55-64.

Something to watch is among Pennsylvania seniors – a group most likely to turn out for municipal primary and general elections. There are just 4,026 more Republicans than Democrats in the 65-74 set, while just 10,133 more are registered with the GOP among those 75 and up.

Largest Democratic Counties

County, Total Dems  |  Oct ’24  |  % Change

• Philadelphia, 766,274  |  796,221  |  -3.8%
• Allegheny, 499,053  |  522,563  |  -4.5%
• Montgomery, 300,124  |  310,207  |  -3.3%
• Delaware, 199,710  |  208,246  |  -4.1%
• Bucks, 192,319  |  199,932  |  -3.8%
• Chester, 156,665  |  162,840  |  -3.8%
• Lancaster 110,278  |  114,199  |  -3.4%
• Lehigh, 109,354  |  114,299  |  -4.3%
• Berks, 103,614  |  108,704  |  -4.7%
• Northampton, 94,764  |  98,549  |  -3.8%

Registered Democrat Change
3,802,793  |  3,971,607  |  -4.25%

Largest Republican Counties

County, Total GOP  |  Oct ’24  |  % Change

• Allegheny, 264,384  |  270,952  |  -2.4%
• Montgomery, 209,288  |  212,792  |  -1.6%
• Bucks, 202,441  |  203,901  |  -0.7%
• Lancaster, 183,564  |  185,018  |  -0.8%
• York, 166,713  |  170,667  |  -2.3%
• Chester, 151,849  |  156,183  |  -2.8%
• Delaware, 145,640  |  149,923  |  -2.9%
• Philadelphia, 131,104  |  131,600  |  -0.4%
• Westmoreland, 130,233  |  130,712  |  -0.4%
• Berks, 117,053  |  117,619  |  -0.5%

Registered GOP Change
3,626,595  |  3,673,783  |  -1.28%

Largest “No Affiliation” Counties (does not include 3d parties)

County, Total N/A  |  Sept  |  % Change

• Philadelphia, 139,722  |  138,897  |  +0.6%
• Allegheny, 106,259  |  108,834  |  -2.4%
• Montgomery, 76,766  |  75,906  |  +1.1%
• Bucks, 64,742  |  64,179  |  +0.8%
• Chester, 54,406  |  54,708  |  -0.6%
• York, 48,287  |  48,910  |  -1.3%
• Lancaster, 46,135  |  46,093  |  -0.1%
• Delaware, 45,695  |  45,569  |  +0.3%
• Lehigh, 42,725  |  43,363  |  -1.2%
• Berks, 37,007  |  36,897  |  +0.3%

Registered No Affiliation Change
1,088,373  |  1,096,427  |  -0.7%

Age Groups

• 18-to-24: 817,577  |  (D) 41.4% (R) 35.3% (O) 23.3%
• 25-to-34: 1,431,680  |  (D) 45.3% (R) 32.6% (O) 22.1%
• 35-to-44: 1,421,739  |  (D) 44.0% (R) 35.7% (O) 20.3%
• 45-to-54: 1,280,908  |  (R) 42.5 % (D) 40.3% (O) 17.2%
• 55-to-64: 1,470,827  |  (R) 48.3% (D) 39.4% (O) 12.3%
• 65-to-74: 1,379,267  |  (R) 45.3% (D) 45.0% (O) 9.3%
• 75+: 1,037,882  |  (R) 46.7% (D) 45.8% (O) 7.5%