GOP Poll: Biden 49.7, Trump 44.3
Former Vice President Joe Biden leads President Donald Trump by just over 5 points in Pennsylvania, according to this GOP super PAC poll.
Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC founded by Doug Traux, a one time GOP Senate hopeful in Illinois, conducted a July poll of three battleground states that includes Pennsylvania showed 49.7% said that they are definitely or probably voting for Biden, while 44.3% said that they are definitely or probably voting for Trump. While Biden leads Trump by 5 points in Pennsylvania, the former VP holds double digit leads Michigan and Wisconsin, making the Keystone State the closest of the three polled in July.
The race has fluctuated quite a bit in recent months according to this polling. In the June PA poll, Biden led Trump by 11 points, 53.5-to-41.8, while the president was ahead of the former VP by about 5 points in the May PA poll, 50.2-to-45.5. Restoration PAC’s polling from April and March showed the two deadlocked.
The analysis also breaks down the votes between Biden and Trump into three regions: urban, suburban, and rural. Biden leads Trump by nearly 35 points, 69-to-24.1, in the urban regions and bests Trump by nearly 6 points, 50.3-to-44.4, in the suburban regions of the state. Trump carries the rural regions by double digits, 52.6-to-40.9, in Pennsylvania.
Trump is also under water in job approval and favorability rating in this most recent poll. 51.8% said that they either strongly or somewhat disapprove of Trump’s performance as president, while 46% said that they strongly or somewhat approve. 55% said that they either have a strong or somewhat unfavorable impression of Trump, while 41.2% said that they either have a strong or somewhat favorable impression of Trump.
Although Trump trails Biden in the poll, Republican candidates for Congress have the slight edge over Democrats. 44% said that they’d either definitely or probably vote for the Republican candidate for Congress, while 41.7% said that they’d vote for the Democratic candidate for Congress, and 14.3% aren’t committed to a party’s candidate for Congress.
Voters in Pennsylvania give the edge to Biden over Trump on who has a better strength of character and integrity, although Biden doesn’t receive high marks on being up to the mental and physical task of serving as president. 51.3% said that they trust Biden more when it comes to strength of character and integrity, while 38.5% said they trusted Trump, and 10.2% said neither or undecided. 48.3% said that Biden is not fully up to the task mentally and physically to handle to duties of president, while 45.8% said that he is fully up to the task, and 5.8% said that they were undecided.
A majority of PA likely voters also believe that the country and the economy are currently going in the wrong direction. 69% said that the country is gone off on the wrong track, while 23.8% said that the country is going in the right direction, and 6.3% said that they don’t know. Just over half, 53.5%, said that the economy has gone off on the wrong track, while 36.8% said that the economy is going in the right direction, and 9.3% said that they don’t know.
When voters were asked to select the top two issues facing the country out of twelve options, stopping coronavirus led the way, followed by jobs/economy, and healthcare. The nine other options didn’t surpass the 20% threshold.
Just over half of voters disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, although more voters believe that Democratic governors and other Democratic leaders are supporting policies to purposely harm the economy to hurt Trump’s re-election chances. 55.2% disapprove of Trump’s handling of the coronavirus crisis, while 41% approve of his handling of the matter. 47.2% believe that Democratic governors and other Democratic leaders will support policies in the coming weeks that purposely harm the economy in order to make it more difficult for Trump to secure a second term, while 44.7% said that they don’t believe the Democratic leaders will purposely harm the economy, and 8.2% are undecided.
Nearly half of voters believe the impeachment of Trump was bad for the country and think President Barack Obama’s administration’s investigation and surveillance into the Trump campaign for alleged Russian collusion was not fair. 42.7% said that Trump’s impeachment was bad for the country, while 40% said it doesn’t matter or that they don’t know, and 17.3% said the impeachment was good for the county. 45% of voters said that the Obama administration’s investigation and surveillance of Trump’s campaign and as president-elect for allegedly colluding with Russia was not fair, while 41.5% said the Obama administration’s actions were fair, and 13.5% said that they don’t know.
This poll from Restoration PAC supervised by Hodas & Associates, surveying 600 likely Pennsylvania voters, collected data from July 17-22, has a margin of error of +/- 3%.
The Biden vs Trump results from this GOP friendly poll are pretty much in line with a number of other public polls between the Biden and Trump in the state.
The Real Clear Politics average shows Biden leading Trump by 5 points in Pennsylvania.
The full data from Restoration PAC analysis can be found here.
The Pennsylvania specific toplines can be found here.