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GOP Pollsters Push Back Against Bad Trump Numbers in PA

How does an incumbent president bounce back from a week of coverage about poor internal polling?

New numbers from GOP-friendly pollsters might help.

In recent weeks, internal polling from the Trump campaign reported by the New York Times and obtained by ABC News showed the President trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in Pennsylvania, 55-39. The Trump campaign initially denied the reports from the New York Times, but has since acknowledged the polling done on behalf of the campaign and is fighting back saying the numbers were from March and “ancient.”  

The internal poll numbers told a similar story as public polling. The Real Clear Politics Average in the state, which includes polling from Emerson in March and Quinnipiac in May, shows Biden ahead by 10.5 points.

But a GOP pollster says that number is off. According to new polling led by Firehouse Strategies, a public affairs firm founded by 3 senior aides on Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign, shows Trump in a tossup with the two leading Democrats, and comfortably leading the rest of the field.

Biden is the lone Democrat leading Trump with 43% in the poll, while Trump carries 42% and 15% remaining undecided. The firm says its polling from March had Biden leading Trump by 8 points.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is the only other Democrat within the margin of error of defeating Trump, trailing just 44% to 41%.

The other two Democrats featured in the latest polling were Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Trump led both 2020 Democratic hopefuls by double digits with over 20% undecided.

The analysis from the firm’s layout from the polling shows that name recognition plays a significant role, while Trump has a stronger “base” here than the Democrats. Trump consistently stays between 42% and 45%.

The polling from this conservative firm also shows Trump’s net approval rating at -3 in the state, 46-49, a 3 point improvement for the President since their March polling. It also adds that Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, boasts a 3 point net approval rating, 38-35, in the state.

The polling from Firehouse Strategies and 0ptimus also shows that a wide majority of Pennsylvanians oppose the push to impeach President Trump, 56% to 36%.

The Firehouse Strategies survey along with 0ptimus surveyed 565 likely voters via live landline and cell, and text. These “likely voters” were defined as registered voters who voted in both the 2012 and 2016 general elections or the 2018 general election, plus the 15% of additional individuals most likely to turnout based on in-house turnout modeling. The margin of error varies by question and segment, but is generally ± 4.2% in PA.

The RNC also debuted new polling this week boasting about Trump’s approval rating in the state, with Trump being approved by 49% in the state, and disapproved by 47%. The polling noticeably omits hypothetical head to head matchups with Biden still, while portraying Trump in a comfortable position to win key battleground states once again.

9 Responses

  1. It’s hard to campaign against Trumps economy. He may be rough around the edges, but he delivers and d you know where you stand with him. He wasn’t elected on his personality, but rather on what he promised to deliver. Biden’s time has come and gone. He can’t even be himself. You certainly don’t see the enthusiasm in the Democrat party that you do in the Republican. If Sanders gets screwed over by his party again, you can count on a good portion of his voters to go with Trump again.

    1. Trump was handed a good economy, but people like you believe he had something to do with it. By the way, I have a bridge in Brooklyn I’d like to sell you…you interested?

  2. As a Democrat, I’ve accepted that Trump won Pennsylvania because lazy, complacent Hillary Clinton thought she could coast to victory and she completely ignored the rural areas, not only in PA but in Ohio, Michigan and Wisconsin. She bought the model that worked for Wolf in 2014 and the state judicial candidates in 2015 that said win Philly and Pittsburgh and a few blue pockets by 800,000 votes and the rest of the state goes 60-40 for Trump but it’s not enough to make up the 800,000. But the rural area – the forgotten by Hillary – the deplorables, went 72-28 for Trump and gave Le Grande Orange the razor thin margin he needed to get PA and the electoral votes. All 20 plus 2020 Democratic candidates better remember – MAKE MANY MANY MANY CAMPAIGN STOPS IN RURAL PA, OHIO, MICHIGAN and WISCONSIN.

  3. What’s Biden’s name recognition percentage among all likely voters, Dems, Reps, Independents? My guess is somewhere around 50%-60%, same goes for Crazy Bernie, Pocahontas Warren probably has name recognition around 20%. Trump sits around 100%. These Dem candidates first have to get their name recognition above 80% before any meaningful polling among likely voters can be done.

    1. Trump’s 100% name recognition is his problem.
      He’s recognized as a liar, cheat, fraud and idiot.

    2. Two can do the name calling game. Lyin Trump. Prostitute Visiting Trump, I could go on. Once Americans start dying in his way with Iran the numbers will really spiral down .

  4. Lets remember all the polls that said hillary would win pa in 2016. i dont trust any polls anymore

  5. The way things work in Trump-world, making up favorable polling numbers probably gets you more business. I think Trump would rather get untrue (but favorable) numbers to tout, than the real numbers.

  • Reader Poll: Should President Joe Biden Step Aside?

    • Yes. He should step aside because of his age, declining ability to do the job. (45%)
    • No. He should not step aside. (39%)
    • Yes. He should step aside because he can't beat Donald Trump. (15%)

    Total Voters: 231

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