GOP Pollsters Push Back Against Bad Trump Numbers in PA
How does an incumbent president bounce back from a week of coverage about poor internal polling?
New numbers from GOP-friendly pollsters might help.
In recent weeks, internal polling from the Trump campaign reported by the New York Times and obtained by ABC News showed the President trailing former Vice President Joe Biden in a hypothetical head-to-head matchup in Pennsylvania, 55-39. The Trump campaign initially denied the reports from the New York Times, but has since acknowledged the polling done on behalf of the campaign and is fighting back saying the numbers were from March and “ancient.”
The internal poll numbers told a similar story as public polling. The Real Clear Politics Average in the state, which includes polling from Emerson in March and Quinnipiac in May, shows Biden ahead by 10.5 points.
But a GOP pollster says that number is off. According to new polling led by Firehouse Strategies, a public affairs firm founded by 3 senior aides on Marco Rubio’s 2016 presidential campaign, shows Trump in a tossup with the two leading Democrats, and comfortably leading the rest of the field.
Biden is the lone Democrat leading Trump with 43% in the poll, while Trump carries 42% and 15% remaining undecided. The firm says its polling from March had Biden leading Trump by 8 points.
Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT) is the only other Democrat within the margin of error of defeating Trump, trailing just 44% to 41%.
The other two Democrats featured in the latest polling were Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) and South Bend Mayor Pete Buttigieg. Trump led both 2020 Democratic hopefuls by double digits with over 20% undecided.
The analysis from the firm’s layout from the polling shows that name recognition plays a significant role, while Trump has a stronger “base” here than the Democrats. Trump consistently stays between 42% and 45%.
The polling from this conservative firm also shows Trump’s net approval rating at -3 in the state, 46-49, a 3 point improvement for the President since their March polling. It also adds that Trump’s daughter, Ivanka, boasts a 3 point net approval rating, 38-35, in the state.
The polling from Firehouse Strategies and 0ptimus also shows that a wide majority of Pennsylvanians oppose the push to impeach President Trump, 56% to 36%.
The Firehouse Strategies survey along with 0ptimus surveyed 565 likely voters via live landline and cell, and text. These “likely voters” were defined as registered voters who voted in both the 2012 and 2016 general elections or the 2018 general election, plus the 15% of additional individuals most likely to turnout based on in-house turnout modeling. The margin of error varies by question and segment, but is generally ± 4.2% in PA.
The RNC also debuted new polling this week boasting about Trump’s approval rating in the state, with Trump being approved by 49% in the state, and disapproved by 47%. The polling noticeably omits hypothetical head to head matchups with Biden still, while portraying Trump in a comfortable position to win key battleground states once again.