Gravis Poll: Biden 48, Trump 45
Recent polling has shown former Vice President Joe Biden leading President Donald Trump by several points in the Keystone State, although a new poll shows a tighter race in Pennsylvania.
According to the latest Gravis Marketing poll, 48% of registered, likely voters in Pennsylvania said that they’d vote for Biden if the election were held today, while 45% said that they’d vote for Trump.
According to the analysts at FiveThirtyEight, Gravis Marketing favors Democrats by an average of 0.9% and has an overall C grade. Despite the slight Democratic lean, 43% polled considered their political ideology as very or somewhat conservative, while 36% described themselves as moderate, and only 20% said that they were very or somewhat liberal.
41% polled in this latest poll are registered Democrats, 36% are Republicans, and 23% are either registered Independent or another party. 43% polled said that they voted for Trump in 2016, while 41% said that they backed Sec. Hillary Clinton, 10% didn’t vote, 4% supported Libertarian candidate Gary Johnson, and 2% voted for Green Party candidate Jill Stein.
The Real Clear Politics Average shows Biden besting Trump by 7.4 points in Pennsylvania.
Voters also gave a slight edge to Biden over Trump in this poll on “mental capacity.” 43% said that Biden had the better mental capacity, while 40% selected Trump. 12% said neither had the best mental capacity, while 4% said they were uncertain, and 3% selected both.
Trump’s approval rating is slightly under water in this latest poll. 47% either strongly or somewhat approve of Trump’s job performance as president in PA, while 50% either strongly or somewhat disapprove, resulting in a -3 net approval rating.
Gov. Tom Wolf and Sen. Bob Casey hold higher job approval ratings in this latest poll in comparison to Trump, while Sen. Pat Toomey trails behind the president.
Wolf has the highest approval rating of a statewide elected official in the commonwealth. 59% either strongly or somewhat approve of Wolf’s job performance, while 39% strongly or somewhat disapprove, and 3% are uncertain, leaving the governor with a 20 point net approval rating among registered, likely voters in the state.
52% either strongly or somewhat approve of Casey’s job performance, while 34% disapprove, and 13% are uncertain. Casey carries an 18 point net approval rating in this latest poll.
Toomey holds the lowest approval rating of the four polled. 39% either strongly or somewhat approve of Toomey’s job performance, while 47% either strongly or somewhat disapprove, and 14% are uncertain, leaving the GOP Senator with a -8 net approval rating.
Polling on Reopening Schools
Voters support reopening schools for in-person instruction in the fall, although they believe that it will lead to an increase in Coronavirus-related deaths.
42% support reopening schools in the fall for in-person instruction, while 36% oppose, and 22% said they are uncertain. 49% said that they believe reopening schools for in-person instruction will lead to an increase in COVID-19 related deaths, while 33% said it would not lead to an increase, and 18% are uncertain.
This overall poll, surveying 1,006 Pennsylvania registered, likely voters, collected data between July 22-24, has a margin of error of +/-3.1%.
The full data can be found here.