Harper Poll: Biden 49, Trump 43
Former Vice President Joe Biden has the edge over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this GOP-affiliated polling firm.
49% of Pennsylvania voters said that they would definitely or probably vote for Biden if the presidential election were held today, while 43% said that they would definitely or probably vote to give Trump a second term, according to a new Harper Poll. Biden’s lead is beyond the margin of error.
Biden can point to his strong support among college-educated voters in this latest poll. 55% of college educated voters support Biden, while 37% support Trump. On the other hand, Trump holds a narrow lead over Biden among Pennsylvania voters without a college degree. 49% of voters without a college degree said that they support Trump for president, while 43% said that they support Biden’s bid.
Biden also holds a double digit lead among voters who said that they are facing a negative financial impact from COVID-19. 54% polled support Biden in this category, while 38% support Trump.
This poll largely falls in line with other recent public polls between Biden and Trump in Pennsylvania.
A Fox News poll has Biden leading Trump 50-42, a Public Policy Polling survey has Biden ahead of Trump 51-44, polling from FOX43/Susquehanna Polling and Research shows Biden besting Trump 48-42, and Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Reuters has Biden beating Trump 46-40. All of the margins are also beyond the margin of error.
The most Trump friendly poll released recently was from Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC, that showed Biden and Trump tied in the state.
The Real Clear Politics average of polls from March 6 to April 26 show Biden leading Trump by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania.
Pennsylvanians Concerns About COVID-19
An overwhelming majority of Pennsylvania voters, 81%, said that they are concerned about contracting COVID-19, although there is a gap between Democrats and Republicans concern on the matter. 92% of Democrats said that they are very or somewhat concerned about contracting COVID-19, while 69% of Republicans said that they are very or somewhat concerned about contracting coronavirus.
66% of Pennsylvania voters said that the coronavirus pandemic has had a negative impact on their financial situation, while 30% said that it has not negatively impacted their finances.
The polling shows that a majority of people in each of the five region breakdown say the coronavirus pandemic has negatively impacted their finances.
Although two-thirds of those polled said that the coronavirus pandemic has negatively impacted their finances, a combined majority, 56%, of Pennsylvania voters think that the economy will recover after the end of 2020, but most of these voters say it will recover within two years. There is a noteworthy gap between recovery time between Trump and Sec. Hillary Clinton voters in 2016. A breakdown of the key findings says that “ Those who voted for Trump in 2016 are more likely to predict a recovery within 2020 (51%), while Clinton voters largely predict a longer recovery (63%).”
This Harper Poll, surveying 644 likely Pennsylvania voters from April 21-26, has a margin of error is +/-3.86%.
The full data can be found here.