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Harper Poll: Biden 49, Trump 43

Former Vice President Joe Biden has the edge over President Donald Trump in Pennsylvania, according to this GOP-affiliated polling firm. 

49% of Pennsylvania voters said that they would definitely or probably vote for Biden if the presidential election were held today, while 43% said that they would definitely or probably vote to give Trump a second term, according to a new Harper Poll. Biden’s lead is beyond the margin of error. 

Biden can point to his strong support among college-educated voters in this latest poll. 55% of college educated voters support Biden, while 37% support Trump. On the other hand, Trump holds a narrow lead over Biden among Pennsylvania voters without a college degree. 49% of voters without a college degree said that they support Trump for president, while 43% said that they support Biden’s bid. 

Biden also holds a double digit lead among voters who said that they are facing a negative financial impact from COVID-19. 54% polled support Biden in this category, while 38% support Trump. 

This poll largely falls in line with other recent public polls between Biden and Trump in Pennsylvania. 

A Fox News poll has Biden leading Trump 50-42, a Public Policy Polling survey has Biden ahead of Trump 51-44, polling from FOX43/Susquehanna Polling and Research shows Biden besting Trump 48-42, and Ipsos poll conducted exclusively for Reuters has Biden beating Trump 46-40. All of the margins are also beyond the margin of error.  

The most Trump friendly poll released recently was from Restoration PAC, a conservative super PAC, that showed Biden and Trump tied in the state

The Real Clear Politics average of polls from March 6 to April 26 show Biden leading Trump by 6.5 points in Pennsylvania. 

Pennsylvanians Concerns About COVID-19 

An overwhelming majority of Pennsylvania voters, 81%, said that they are concerned about contracting COVID-19, although there is a gap between Democrats and Republicans concern on the matter. 92% of Democrats said that they are very or somewhat concerned about contracting COVID-19, while 69% of Republicans said that they are very or somewhat concerned about contracting coronavirus. 

66% of Pennsylvania voters said that the coronavirus pandemic has had a negative impact on their financial situation, while 30% said that it has not negatively impacted their finances.  

The polling shows that a majority of people in each of the five region breakdown say the coronavirus pandemic has negatively impacted their finances. 

Although two-thirds of those polled said that the coronavirus pandemic has negatively impacted their finances, a combined majority, 56%, of Pennsylvania voters think that the economy will recover after the end of 2020, but most of these voters say it will recover within two years. There is a noteworthy gap between recovery time between Trump and Sec. Hillary Clinton voters in 2016. A breakdown of the key findings says that “ Those who voted for Trump in 2016 are more likely to predict a recovery within 2020 (51%), while Clinton voters largely predict a longer recovery (63%).” 

This Harper Poll, surveying 644 likely Pennsylvania voters from April 21-26,  has a margin of error is +/-3.86%.

The full data can be found here.

8 Responses

  1. “Harper Poll: Biden 49, Trump 43” — 2016 deja vu, all over again…

  2. Folks standing in line at the supermarket for the honor of spending large sums of their money while wearing masks isn’t good for the President’s reelection chances. China is not on the ballot. Trump is on the ballot. Aside from the obvious loss of life due to the virus which is a another argument, the profound disruption of people’s daily routines due to the virus will wind up not being helpful for Republicans in November.

    1. Reminder: It was our Democratic governor who shut down PA. Same with pretty much every Dem-run state. The most autocratic among governors have been the Dems. They’re resisting reopening, because they see — and approve — a collapsed economy and the ruined lives and livelihoods of millions of “nonessential” working Americans as their best chance to win the White House. It’s sick, cynical and thoroughly despicable.

      1. Please continue to walk around without a mask on in Pennsylvania. That way every other sane person will know which way you’re voting and will have the opportunity to stick it to you when Trump is pounded come November.

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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