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Harper Poll: Schwartz 22%, McGinty 15% in PA-Gov

Rep. Schwartz
Rep. Schwartz

Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz leads the primary race to challenge Governor Corbett next year according to a poll released this morning by Harper Polling.

In a hypothetical 6-way primary, Schwartz took 22%, Katie McGinty 15%, Rob McCord 12%, John Hanger 7%, Ed Pawlowski 6% and Tom Wolf fell to last, at 5%. 34% remain undecided.

Schwartz is strongest in her southeast Pa. home base, where she takes 45% of the vote (Hanger is second with 9%). McGinty and McCord each takes 7% of the SEPA vote, despite the fact that both candidates reside there.

McGinty enjoys small leads in 3 other regions tested: South Central (McGinty 21%, McCord 16%); Northern Tier (McGinty 24%, McCord 14%); and Pittsburgh/Southwest (McGinty 20%, McCord 19%). She and Pawlowski are tied at 14% in Scranton/Lehigh Valley.

Wolf and Hanger take just 11% and 5% of their home region of South Central.

Schwartz’s strength comes from name ID. 43% of respondents had an opinion about her, versus 27% for McCord, 23% for McGinty, 22% for Hanger and Wolf, and 19% for Pawlowski.

Schwartz is viewed favorably 32% to 11%.

The Montgomery County Congresswoman has lead in every independent poll of the primary thus far.

Respondents also said which issue most concerns them. 34% said jobs and the economy, 20% said health care and 16% said school funding.

Full crosstabs are here.

Harper Polling, a Republican firm based in Harrisburg, surveyed 649 primary-voting Democratic voters via interactive voice response (IVR) on Nov. 9 and 10. The margin of error is plus or minus 3.85%.

McGinty and Hanger are former DEP Secretaries, McCord is State Treasurer, Pawlowski is the current mayor of Allentown, and Wolf is the former Secretary of Revenue.

Lebanon County Commissioner Jo Ellen Litz and Cumberland County Pastor Max Myers are also running for Governor. Former Auditor General Jack Wagner is considering a bid.


5 Responses

  1. As MikeF said, this race IS wide open. If you read my comments, you know that I am a Hanger supporter and it’s for good reason. While Schwartz and McCord have better name recognition than others, the people of Pennsylvania (and the nation generally) don’t want another politician. We want political outsiders to get us out of the mess political insiders like McCord and Schwartz got us into! Plus, as many apt Democrats know, Schwartz’ background is nothing but a liability for her, and if she becomes the nominee she has a better chance of losing to Corbett than any other candidate.
    Hanger is brilliant, and as he continues to campaign I know his poll numbers will keep growing!

  2. I am shocked that Schwartz is leading in this poll since her campaign has been a sheer disaster since it’s inception.

    Also, where did Katie McGinty come from?? She is second? I thought Katie would have been an also-ran who never reached decent name id. But, good for her.

    Most disappointing is Wolf. He has $10 mill set aside. Presumably, he will spend that on name ID soon.

  3. Mccord 12% in third place 5 years as treasure in pa thats not good all bey all those unions are second guessing their pick.thats what pa needs a female governor.

  4. “Schwartz’s strength comes from name ID.”

    Nothing a few million in advertising can’t remedy for the other candidates. 🙂 🙁

    After Pawlowski’s flaccid win against an underfunded independent candidate for Mayor, he’s not viable. For the kind of money Wolf and Hanger will have to spend to get some of Pawlowski’s 6%, they could have funded the independent candidate in Allentown and saved themselves the trouble now.

    As for Harper, I don’t know their history and how reliable they are for polling a Dem primary if they are a Republican polling firm.

    The poll does seem to track name-recognition, but doesn’t seem to match the union endorsements.

    It’s still pretty early in the game and the candidates haven’t debated or introduced themselves to a wide audience.

    Come petition time, we will have a better sense of the strength of their organizations.

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