Harper Poll: Shapiro Pulls Ahead in Dem AG Race

Josh ShapiroJosh Shapiro has opened up a double-digit lead over his challengers for the Democratic nomination for Attorney General, the latest Harper Poll shows.

Montgomery County Commissioner Shapiro picked up 33% in the poll, while Allegheny County DA Stephen Zappala registered 17%. Northampton County DA John Morganelli comes in a close third with 16%. 34% of voters are still undecided, with three weeks until the primary.

Shapiro leads among almost all demographics, including very liberal voters (42%), somewhat liberal voters (38%) and moderates (32%).

His strongest numbers come from those closest to home, with 48% of Philadelphia/Southeast PA voters backing him. Shapiro also leads in South Central PA (31%) and the Northern Tier (22%).

43% of African-American voters support Shapiro, the poll shows, while he also wins over a plurality of both Bernie Sanders and Hillary Clinton supporters.

Zappala also found home comforts in the poll, with 49% of the Pittsburgh/Southwest PA region throwing their support behind him. Likewise, Morganelli performed best in the Scranton/Lehigh Valley region, picking up 37%.

A January Harper Poll showed embattled incumbent AG Kathleen Kane with a substantial lead over her three challengers, but she has since dropped out of the race.

Harper Polling surveyed 603 likely Democratic primary voters through landline interviews conducted using Interactive Voice Response (IVR). The poll took place between on April 2nd and April 3rd. The margin of error is +/- 4%.

31 Responses

  1. This is from the article that followed-up on this Poll. Doesn’t say much about Zappala’s integrity:

    The latest Harper Poll showed Montgomery County Commissioner Josh Shapiro leading Allegheny County District Attorney Stephen Zappala by a 33% to 17%.

    IBEW 98 spokesman Frank Keel sent the following unprompted statement to PoliticsPA in response to the survey:

    ‎”The Harper Poll results you published yesterday are highly questionable. The poll, showing a healthy lead for Josh Shapiro in the A.G.’s race, was clearly commissioned by Shapiro. The poll also shows Hillary Clinton with a commanding 30 point lead in PA, which flies in the face of every other poll we’ve seen. Likewise, Shapiro’s poll shows Governor Wolf with a 79% approval rating. The National Champion Villanova Wildcats don’t enjoy a 79% approval rating right now. The reason why Philadelphia Democratic City Committee, IBEW Local 98 and so many other unions are supporting Steve Zappala for Attorney General is that he’s a proven prosecutor with nearly two decades of experience as a District Attorney. Pennsylvania needs a prosecutor in the Attorney General’s office, not a calculating, career politician who views the office as no more than a stepping stone to the Governor’s mansion.”

    IBEW 98 Business Manager John Dougherty has been helping out Zappala’s campaign behind the scenes. Earlier today, the state IBEW endorsed Zappala.

    PoliticsPA reached out to Brock McCleary, President of Harper Polling who sent the following response:

    “First, as the methodology states, the poll was commissioned, paid for and conducted by Harper Polling.

    Next, we would call your attention to the results of the 2014 Democratic primary and general elections for Governor in Pennsylvania. As the attached graphics sourced from Real Clear Politics demonstrate, we were the only Pennsylvania pollster to predict Tom Wolf’s landslide Democratic primary win and the only pollster to precisely predict Tom Wolf’s 10% margin of victory in 2014.

    Here is a link to the available public polls on the Pennsylvania Democratic Presidential Primary according to the Real Clear Politics tracker.

    http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2016/president/pa/pennsylvania_democratic_presidential_primary-4249.html. As you can see, the average lead for Clinton is 18%. Our poll had a 22% lead for Clinton, not a 30% lead as they claim.

    As far as Governor Wolf’s favorability, the poll is among likely Democratic primary voters, who generally hold positive opinions about the Democratic Governor. We have his favorability at 75% favorable/22% unfavorable with likely Democratic primary voters. This is also in line with the trend of our January poll (78%/20%).

    And finally, the Zappala campaign is free to release their own poll results at any time that present a different outlook on the race.”

    Yikes!! Zappala must be getting desperate.

  2. Mob — whatever are you talking about? Who is going to jail? The elected DA of Allegheny County? Why – his Father is a Supreme Court Justice.His Grandfather was a Legislator. Who says Little Stevie is going to jail?? Or – were you talking about someone else?

  3. Zappala could control PGH with his mob ties.
    Talk to Pittsburgers they says in public we pretend to support Zappala but at the voting booth we won’t. This is 2016 not 1982 you can’t hide like your Father hid his corruption. Information is instant..
    Your Cash for Kids deal, your look the other way while children are abused. Your crack the heads of the Black community, Your protection of the “family” wont fly.
    Pack your bags Steve next DA election you will lose that as well as this election. Stick a fork in you-you’re done.
    Thank your guys for talking so much. Handcuffs are on the way! Ears have heard! Eyes have seen!

  4. DA Zappala will only take care of his cronies, mobster friends and of course his nephew the arsonist.

    Keep in mind that Mt. Lebanon is an affluent community where the police are more than capable of handling the DA’s nephew with kid gloves.

    For what’s it’s worth, Mt. Lebanon was also home to John “Ice pick” Bazzono, who was married to DA Zappala’s great Aunt, Rose.

    Read for yourself and judge for yourself:


  5. Shapiro is beating Zappala. And the truth has not even come out yet on what Zappala did in the Leon Ford case. He helped the Police cover-up after they shot an innocent, unarmed kid in Pittsburgh. Ford – an unarmed 19YO – was shot after Police mistook him for someone else, cursed him, called him a liar, and told him they would “get his Black ass out of his car when [they] wanted his Black ass out of the car.” Zappalla charged Ford – who has no record of criminal convictions and was laying in a hospital bed paralyzed by the Police bullets that ripped through his spine. Zappala lost the case in Court, though, when a jury exonerated Mr. Ford. Before the trial, Zappala and the D.A.’s Office tried to conceal an official report that criticized the Police involved and questioned the credibility of the officer that shot Mr. Ford.

  6. A pathetic shill alert has been issued for “Observant.” He is a dork and totally non-dangerous. If you get too close though he will pull out an iPad and play Zappala’s pathetic TV ad where he pretends to protect Blacks.

  7. Harper asked:
    “Q: If the Democratic primary election for Attorney General of Pennsylvania were held today, which of the following candidates would you vote for: John Morganelli, Josh Shapiro, or Stephen Zappala?”

    Now, they didn’t add the County associated with each candidate. There are a lot of voters who vote regionally, and I think the county is on the ballot next to the candidate’s name. So, this poll doesn’t capture that effect.

  8. Why is the Shapiro campaign touting a Republican Polling Firm’s numbers for this race? Googling the firm indicates it is fairly unreliable…had Schwartz winning the Governor’s race with McGinty a close second…how’d that work?

  9. This sucks. I was hoping Johnny Doc’s endorsement in Philly would help Stevie – the Justice’s Son and Legislator’s Grandson. But it’s not. He’s gonna lose … Shit!

  10. Valarie will be sucking up to Sonny when he kicks the regional candidate to the curb.

  11. Josh—give back that $50,000 of charter school money. Then run for an office, next time, for which you are qualified—-I will definitely vote for you for such office—but I will NOT vote for you for Attorney General………….c’mon!

  12. I am just a regular voter who has nothing to do with politics and I happened to stumble on to this website. I am definitely not being paid to troll the comments section of various political websites. This is great news for Josh Shapiro! He has my vote!

  13. With each day that passes and each day the Zappala/Morganelli ticket attack Josh Shapiro, voters are seeing who they want to serve as our next Attorney General. Josh Shapiro has traveled across our state over and over meeting voters while the Z/M team have plotted and planned their ugly messages. Voters are tired of the same old back room political deals of these two guys.
    Vote Josh Shapiro for our next Attorney General. A candidate that cares about fixing issues not sitting back and adding to the problems of Pennsylvania.

  14. Zakrey Bissell-

    If Josh loses the primary, he can finish out his remaining 3 years 9 months as Montco commissioner, and drop out of that silly crime commission group.

  15. If John Rafferty loses the primary by a upset by Joe Peters and If Josh Shapiro wins the primary and I will support Josh is to be the next Attorney General in 2016.

  16. If Josh wins the general election as well by the polls and I’m hoping for The Former Congresswoman Allyson Schwartz gets endorsed by the polls and support her is to be the next Montgomery County Commissioner in 2017.

  17. Truth To Power-

    75% approval of Wolf does seem a bit high, even if the poll is among Dems. I didn’t get a sense it was even at 50% at state committee.

  18. “Poll Commissioned By Josh Shapiro Shows Shapiro With Double-Digit Lead”. Not worth the paper it was printed on. The poll also reflects a 75% approval rating for Tom Wolf…on what planet?

  19. PA Conservative-

    You can’t be a “formiddable opponent in November” if you don’t win the primary. 🙂

    Philly Dems endorsed Zappala. Now, it will be interesting to see who gets endorsed by Philly Inquirer.

  20. Has Zappalla ever left Allegheny County? Shapiro is working hard and seems to be everywhere. He will be a formiddable opponent in November.

  21. Shapiro is running a great campaign; Zappala will regret putting all his trust in Doc and Brady

  22. This is great news. The public needs to know that Morganelli and Zappala are working together to stop Shapiro. See Philly article from 4/4. Zappala needs to be asked about how his family profits from gaming and how his brother managed to stay out of the fray when he owned the juvenile detention centers that paid 20 million in kickbacks to now convicted judges. Destroying the lives of thousands of young kids and their families. He also distorted the facts in his commercial using the suffering of black individuals who were gunned down by police for his own political gain. See WTAE newscast on 4/5.

  23. It’s good that the people with land-lines support Shapiro. The younger voters who have only cell phones will be even stronger Shapiro supporters.

Comments are closed.

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