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HD-83 Poll: Mirabito Leads GOP Challenger by 25 Points

Harry Rogers, left, and state Rep. Rick Mirabito

What a treat! Independent polling in a state legislative race.

State Rep. Rick Mirabito (D-Lycoming) is one of the GOP’s top targets in 2012, but he has a healthy lead over Republican challenger Harry Rogers according to a new poll. The survey by Lycoming College shows Mirabito ahead 55.2 percent to 30.3 percent.

The results were reported by the Williamsport Sun-Gazette. 14.4 percent of those polled were undecided.

Mirabito represents the most GOP-friendly district currently held by a state House Democrat and has been a perennial target for Republicans. It comprises the city of Williamsport and neighboring municipalities in Lycoming County.

PoliticsPA named the 83rd the 4th most likely seat to change party control:

A businessman and restaurateur, Mirabito came to office in the wave of 2008. But unlike so many of his colleagues and thanks to a well-run campaign, he avoided the storm in 2010 and won re-election by about 5 points. Both times he defeated Dave Huffman, whose candidacies were clouded by serious personal issues involving an ex-wife and a restraining order. This year however, his opponent is Harry Rogers, a well-connected county employee who formerly chaired the Lycoming GOP. Rogers stepped on some toes during the primary, but most of the party is lined up behind him. And, if Mirabito holds on, he’s guaranteed a more GOP-friendly seat in 2014.

The pollster surveyed 325 likely voters in the 83rd district during the week of Sept. 23 using live telephone calls. The survey considered a random selection of people who voted in elections or have registered to vote since 2010. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 5.4 percent.

“Voters are just beginning to focus attention on these races down the ballot, so there is still room for movement,” said pollster Jonathan Williamson. “However, these results indicate that Mirabito holds a substantial lead that Rogers would need to overcome with the election just more than a month away.”

The sample included 47.6 registered Republicans, 41.3 percent registered Democrats and 11.1 percent registered Independents.

The registration in the district is 49.8 percent Republican, 38.6 percent Democratic and 10.5 percent non-partisan or independent according to Labels and Lists.

3 Responses

  1. It’s funny how I’ve seen the EXACT comment above posted in several places online – and the actual vote that’s referred to is the PA BUDGET bill… so if you voted FOR passing a budget – the Second Mile funding was in there… Ironic how the attack is for supporting Sandusky – when in reality – it’s for supporting a budget to keep PA working AND to help the kids of Second Mile who did NOTHING wrong

  2. Rep. Mirabito voted for $3,000,000 for convicted child rapist Jerry Sandusky’s Second Mile Learning Center about a month after he knew of Jerry Sandusky’s child rapes and molestations.

    Here is the House Roll Call…A Roll Call of Shame for the vote on December 19, 2011. Jerry Sandusky was arrested on November 5th, 2011.

    Funding a child rapist’s favorite charity which he used as a cover and recruiting venue is not a good use of Taxpayer money.

  3. Even though Mirabito is an incumbent, polls like this will only encourage the HDCC to keep recruiting white male businessmen as candidates and keep freezing women and minorities out except for maybe a few in Philadelphia. But if the Democrats started running a lot more good women candidates in a lot of districts, they would have better chances statewide. Too bad the good old boys in Harrisburg are not likely to permit that anytime soon. Look at the HDCC website. Only about 1 in 5 of the candidates now being promoted by the HDCC is a woman. Ugh.

  • Understanding that basic education funding should/will be first, what should be the next highest priority for the General Assembly?

    • Raising The Minimum Wage (25%)
    • Legalizing Adult-Use Marijuana (24%)
    • None of the above. Something Else. (20%)
    • Economic Development (14%)
    • Higher Education (8%)
    • Public Transportation (8%)
    • Workforce Opportunities and Innovation (2%)

    Total Voters: 51

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