HD-83 Poll: Mirabito Leads GOP Challenger by 25 Points
What a treat! Independent polling in a state legislative race.
State Rep. Rick Mirabito (D-Lycoming) is one of the GOP’s top targets in 2012, but he has a healthy lead over Republican challenger Harry Rogers according to a new poll. The survey by Lycoming College shows Mirabito ahead 55.2 percent to 30.3 percent.
The results were reported by the Williamsport Sun-Gazette. 14.4 percent of those polled were undecided.
Mirabito represents the most GOP-friendly district currently held by a state House Democrat and has been a perennial target for Republicans. It comprises the city of Williamsport and neighboring municipalities in Lycoming County.
PoliticsPA named the 83rd the 4th most likely seat to change party control:
A businessman and restaurateur, Mirabito came to office in the wave of 2008. But unlike so many of his colleagues and thanks to a well-run campaign, he avoided the storm in 2010 and won re-election by about 5 points. Both times he defeated Dave Huffman, whose candidacies were clouded by serious personal issues involving an ex-wife and a restraining order. This year however, his opponent is Harry Rogers, a well-connected county employee who formerly chaired the Lycoming GOP. Rogers stepped on some toes during the primary, but most of the party is lined up behind him. And, if Mirabito holds on, he’s guaranteed a more GOP-friendly seat in 2014.
The pollster surveyed 325 likely voters in the 83rd district during the week of Sept. 23 using live telephone calls. The survey considered a random selection of people who voted in elections or have registered to vote since 2010. The survey’s margin of error is plus or minus 5.4 percent.
“Voters are just beginning to focus attention on these races down the ballot, so there is still room for movement,” said pollster Jonathan Williamson. “However, these results indicate that Mirabito holds a substantial lead that Rogers would need to overcome with the election just more than a month away.”
The sample included 47.6 registered Republicans, 41.3 percent registered Democrats and 11.1 percent registered Independents.
The registration in the district is 49.8 percent Republican, 38.6 percent Democratic and 10.5 percent non-partisan or independent according to Labels and Lists.