Hillary’s 2016 Game Plan Requires Winning Pennsylvania

Wolf-HillaryHillary Clinton needs to win Pennsylvania to move back into 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue.

In fact, judging by a new internal memo, her campaign is counting on it.

According to Jonathan Martin of Vox, Clinton Campaign Manager Robbie Mook wrote up a six-page memo to the campaign’s top supporters to calm fears that they’re struggling.

While the whole document is an intriguing read, it includes a paragraph on the team’s electoral strategy:

“In an electoral map that already skews towards Democrats, the Republicans out-of-touch agenda puts those 270 Electoral College votes even further out of reach. Assuming the Democrats continue to win Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan (all of which they’ve won in every election since 1992), Democrats will need 23 out of the 85 electoral votes in remaining swing states Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida.”

The three rust belt states of Pennsylvania, Michigan and Wisconsin are apparently viewed by the Hillary camp as their “blue wall”, which would ensure them at least 247 electoral votes.

Pennsylvania and Michigan have gone to the Democrats in six straight contests going back to Hillary’s husband, Bill Clinton, and his first victory in 1992. Wisconsin goes back even further to 1988 and Michael Dukakis.

It’s worth comparing the Clinton campaign’s map to the latest ratings from the Cook Political Report.

The two seem to agree that Michigan is likely to stay blue but Cook moved Pennsylvania and Wisconsin from “Lean Democratic” to “Toss-Up”.

Either way, with its twenty electoral votes (and the fact that Philadelphia will be the home of the Democratic convention) Pennsylvania is a must-win state for Hillary Clinton in 2016.

39 Responses

  1. In my last two posts I did openly engage with David and did not pretend not to.
    Let me be clear. I do not think engaging David is a positive use of my time, but I also do not think refusing to do so means I have to ignore his posts. What part of that is difficult to understand??? If I disagree with him I will say so. If some see that as me engaging him that is their right. I personally see no conflict.
    I think David is an idiot. I ignore him whenever possible. Is that a problem???

  2. Jerry appears to engage in plenty of discourse with David…even while desperately explaining how he is not doing so. I differ with David on Sestak by the way. It just seems typical that someone dismisses another poster, then when the dismissed poster dares respond, the dismisser immediately re-engages, despite claims to not be.

  3. Oh, and one more thing, David.
    You really need to learn how to read. “Unknown” did not predict a Sestak scandal. “Unknown” predicted a Clinton scandal (exact quote follows):
    “David: Did you order a Clinton scandal/event? One scandal/event coming up…! What has transpired thus far is merely an appetizer…”
    The way she is dealing with the e-mail scandal by making light of it, dismissing it, and cracking jokes about it is beyond belief, and is another scandal all by itself. Can she really be so clueless that she does not realize that most people find her attitude tasteless and dodgy? Even her closest supporters are publicly criticizing her for the way she is dealing with this. Did you notice that Sanders won the Iowa State Fair Straw poll? Her campaign is unravelling at warp speed.

  4. David,
    Since you are obviously so thick I will address you just once more to spell things out for you. Please pay attention. I will do my best not to use any big words.
    What I wrote was that I would no longer engage in discourse with you. I did not say I would not comment to the readers of this site when you continue to express inanities and unsupported slanders.
    Also, though I support Sestak (and more importantly oppose the corrupt Democratic/Rendell machine), my oft-stated reason for taking issue with your posts is your repeated slanders. That is inappropriate no matter who they are aimed at. It also amounts to hijacking threads and trolling other commenters. Sestak has nothing to do with it.
    Judging from other comments aimed your way of late by others, none of them positive, I think it is you who are digging a hole for yourself. Hopefully the proprietor of this site will eventually agree.
    It would also be nice if he stripped FYI and a few others of their anonymity. I can understand why some people might need to protect their identities, but they should lose that right when they post slanders and attacks. Hiding behind an alias is the height of cowardice in such circumstances.

  5. flynnbw-

    It wasn’t an intentional hijack, as Unknown has predicted a Sestak scandal.

    This queued up Jerry, who despite his many vows to the contrary, continues to engage against me, particularly on his misguided faith in Sestak. When someone fights so hard to dig himself a hole, I feel remiss if I don’t provide shovels. 🙂

  6. davis daino alreddy says lots that he aint never like jim sestake cuz he was rotten cognrisman and he like Karen mcgillin to bee the cannddydate to beet tooney in senite.

  7. David Diano: hijacking comment sections with long digressions about Joe Sestak since 2009.

    Bravo for your latest effort, sir.

  8. Steventodd-

    With the way the GOP (especially Trump) has talked about immigrants and women, they should lose ground since 2008 and 2012. The RNC identified the Hispanic vote as critical to their 2016 hopes. Those hopes have now been destroyed by Trump.

  9. The big (and continually buried story in this article and all similar ones:

    #BrokenSystem:

    Only 85 electoral votes in play for POTUS 2016: Nevada, New Hampshire, Iowa, Colorado, Virginia, Ohio, and Florida.

    I had only 173 votes up for grabs…before a single candidate had announced. ON December 22, 2014. While some of those have filled in blue or red, none that I had blue or red have changed. None will, no matter who runs.

    https://steventodd.wordpress.com/2014/12/22/my-2016-presidential-election-electoral-map-predictions/

  10. “David Diano is a big deal???” Who says so, David Diano?

    I just did a Google search on David. I did not see anything of note except his own posted comments. It is clear that he has been negatively obsessed with Sestak since at least 2009, but I see no evidence that he has ever broken any news, and no one seems to ever quote his words of wisdom.

    The bottom line is that his totally undocumented rumor-mongering devoid of evidence or particulars in is incredibly unprofessional no matter who posts it and no matter who it is posted about. If I had found similar slanders about David in my Google search I would not have repeated them because I would have considered it inappropriate to do so. David sees no problem with smearing Sestak without particulars or evidence to back him up. I do, and so should PoliticsPa.

    If he is onto a story that could damage Sestak (and even David seems to acknowledge that proof is lacking) he has every right to pursue it. Rumor-mongoring is not only inappropriate, but he is hijacking threads by continually repeating these rumors, which is why I have suggested that it amounts to trolling. I am against censorship, but I think it is way past time that this site subject David to monitoring. Opinions are one thing. Slander is another.

  11. Jerry Policoff-

    While we both post under our own names, I have posted for longer and more often. People know where I stand, I also meet people at fundraisers, and provide free voter database service to hundreds of Dem committee members. Suffice it to say, I’ve got a bit of a following.

    As a result of this notoriety, I get information. Former Sestak staffers are often a good source because they tell me they wish they had read my stuff before they made the mistake of working for him, and then share their own stories.

    I’ve already shared this particular story with at least one reporter (who is researching independent confirmation), and I’ve discussed it with several political operatives. All agreed that verification of the story (hard documents) would sink the S.S. Sestak. My source alone might be sufficient, the black and white documents will play better in the press and campaign ads.

    I’m holding back the story until the McGinty campaign is far enough along to capitalize on it. I’m also enjoying drawing out the suspense. It’s going to be a great “I told you so” to the doubters like you. When you eventually hear the story, you might drop support for Joe as well (though, you’re so irrational that I wouldn’t bet money either way).

    As for your “book”, it’s drawn in crayon.

    BTW, when Sestak tried his stealth relaunch of his campaign two years ago with I sudden burst of fundraising, I was the one who spotted his FEC report and broke the story to PoliticsPA and the Philly Inquirer. This totally ruined Sestak’s plans to announce his campaign his way, and caught him off guard, turning his reentry into a fizzle.

    A few weeks ago at a Montco picnic, one of the local township chairman remarked to me how a few years ago I was alone in pointing out the kind of person/candidate Sestak is. But now, he said, I’ve been vindicated as most everyone sees the real Sestak.

    I’m not worried about what you think.

  12. After having been exposed to Diano’s post for way too long he just strikes me as a blow-hard who no one would entrust with anything that was sensitive. As i’ve suggested before, he acts more like a troll than anything else. It pains me that some of you are taking him seriously and encouraging his irresponsible rumor-mongering against Sestak. He offers no details or evidence, just his own assurances (which are worth nothing) that a major scandal will soon end Sestak’s career. If he can’t offer details and evidence you should ask him to shut up and you should stop encouraging him.
    I am aware of no one but David who is spreading these rumors, and in my book David is totally lacking in credibility and totally devoid of good judgment. He is just embarrassing.

  13. Aaron-

    More like people will be glad they found out about Sestak and dodged a bullet.

  14. Diano – you would be right if this was a normal election cycle in which many Dem officials were not being charged with felonies. It will just make the party look even more corrupt and will cripple the Senate nominee. It will also look like McGinty is using it for political purposes and is discrediting a decorated military officer. Toomey will have a field day with it.

  15. hilary aint gonna bee on the ballet in penslyvania next yr cuz she aint innersted in bein president, so she aint gonna even run in state,

  16. hilary aint gonna bee on the ballet in penslyvania next yr cuz she aint innersted in bein president,

  17. aaron-

    Nope. This would affect only Sestak AND justify the Dems search for an alternate candidate, by undercutting the reasons that Sestak states make him the superior choice. It’s the perfect storm, and it will rain only on Sestak.

    It actually makes the Dems look good for rejecting him.

  18. If something that horrid is coming out about sestak, then it will simply guarantee a toomey victory. A sestak scandal will also hurt his democratic opponents,as it will look even more so than it already does that the pa democratic party is corrupt. And no, pa is not a lock for hillary. Not even close.

  19. Jerry Policoff-

    Your “vows” are as worthless as your arguments. I’ve stayed on topic, other than to respond to your off-topic remarks. Unknown had previously suggested a Sestak scandal, and I was wondering if his latest reference to a Clinton scandal was related.

    I can triple-down and quadruple down on my Sestak info. It’s probably the most damaging and verifiable piece of information against him that has come my way. It will devastate him and his campaign.

    There are i’s to dot and t’s to cross and timing is critical, but once it all comes to light, it will be lights-out for Sestak.

    It’s killing me to have to wait, but it’s worth the wait.

  20. I have vowed not to partake in any exchanges with David, but I would like to point out to readers of this thread that David just doubled down on his unsubstantiated and scurrilous rumor-mongering against Sestak while again admitting that he can prove nothing.
    I would respectfully submit that David meets the definition of a troll:

    an “Internet… troll is a person who sows discord on the Internet by starting arguments or upsetting people, by posting inflammatory, extraneous, or off-topic messages in an online community (such as a newsgroup, forum, chat room, or blog) with the deliberate intent of provoking readers into an emotional response or of otherwise disrupting normal on-topic discussion.”

  21. Jerry-

    Actually, it’s something very black and white that can be validated unequivocally, leaving no doubt.

    As an example (not the actual issue in question), let’s say Sestak claimed to have been some place he wanted or misreported the value of an in-kind donation of a computer. In this example, the black and white evidence could be a receipt. Now, I wouldn’t need to have access to the receipt, if I was told of it’s existence by a reliable source. But, stores, restaurants, hotels, etc. would have copies of receipts as would a credit card company. So, it would not be difficult to validate or refute the claims, given a paper trail.

    The Sestak problem I’m alluding to has a paper trail to it that Joe cannot erase and will bury his political career.

    The problem does not have to do with his FEC filings, though I think a forensic review of them would land him in hot water with the FEC and IRS for misrepresenting the employment status of his staff and tax evasion of employment taxes. But, that is a separate matter that the FEC and IRS have ample time to investigate and pursue (and flip witnesses if need be). I highly doubt his employment and payment practices would hold up to close scrutiny, especially with everyone involved placed under oath.

    But, again, that’s a separate legal matter that Sestak could survive with a fine and claims of ignorance of employment/finance/tax laws.

    What I’m talking about goes directly to his character and integrity in a way that would cause voters to reject him once it’s revealed as it belies the public image he has constructed for himself.

  22. I hope you all read between the lines of David’s response:
    “… Validating [this so-called career-ending “scoop” on Sestak]for publication would require some addition resources, getting people to speak on the record and tracking down some documentation to clearly illustrate the severity of Sestak’s dishonorable actions….”

    In other words it is nothing but a rumor that cannot be validated, and as such David is incredibly irresponsible in pushing it here. The owners of this site are just as irresponsible for letting him continue to do it. Shame on them. Shame on David. And double shame on David for insisting that pushing these rumors is “journalism.”

  23. Jerry Policoff-

    My source on this is someone in a credible position to know what I was told. Validating it for publication would require some addition resources, getting people to speak on the record and tracking down some documentation to clearly illustrate the severity of Sestak’s dishonorable actions. Fortunately, the evidence is not the kind he can bury, though it will take a bit of work to track down all the pieces to get the full extent.

    Also, I certainly would want to time the release of this story for maximum impact, when people are paying attention to the race, particularly to counter Sestak’s theme of “bringing honor and integrity to Washington”.

    If Nick would like to contact me, I’d be happy to share with him what the story is, under strict journalistic confidence so he can gauge if I’ve exaggerated the importance of it signaling the death of Sestak’s political career.

    Hillary is the establishment Dem candidate and will kick @ss in PA. Bill is very popular here and Philly will come out in droves.

    Bob-

    Thank you for identifying “pro-Republican group American Crossroads by the pollsters Vox Populi” as the source of the poll so we know it is not remotely valid.

    Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Ted Cruz, and Bobby Jindal will all be eliminated long before we get to Pennsylvania primary. The Republicans are not going to pick a black candidate after 8 years of bitching about Obama. I doubt Jindal will make it past the next debate. Fiorina is certainly one of the most intelligent and thoughtful candidates in the GOP field, but she’s not a white man. She might get a VP nod, but she’s not going to be the nominee. Ted Cruz makes Jeb Bush look smart.

    None of the GOP candidates can hold a candle to Hillary on the issue and come off as “presidential” and ready for the job. They have no depth on the issues and foreign affairs and are on the wrong side of all the social issues. The immigration issue has cost the GOP an additional 10% of the Hispanic vote, when they needed to gain 10% to be viable.

  24. The Democrats will win Pennsylvania if they nominate a real Democrat like Bernie Sanders (even though he is not a Democrat) or Al Gore. Biden might have a chance because he is less objectionable than Clinton. The Democrats are the majority Party in Pa. but they keep losing elections here because they keep running only faux Democrats who many of us simply will not vote for. The sad thing is the machine could care less. They’d rather lose with a faux Democrat than win with a progressive.

  25. Rush Limbaugh 14 August

    In politics, Chris Stirewalt at Fox News: “Polls Show Hillary Way Underwater in Swing States.”

    Well, Hillary Clinton, against any Republican, is losing by 13 points.

    The poll’s gonna be released later today. It was conducted for the pro-Republican group American Crossroads by the pollsters Vox Populi. It’s a telephone survey of 1,908 registered voters in Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Nevada, Ohio, Virginia. Those are the six swing states, and she is underwater in them.

  26. My prediction is that Mrs. Clinton withdraws from the campaign citing life threatening medical issues.

    Joe Biden steps up; Team Obama machine manufactures his campaign.

    I think the right Republican could win Pennsylvania. Most of you are underestimating how good Ben Carson, Carly Fiorina, Ted Cruz, Bobby Jindal are.

  27. David Diano keeps alluding to some inside knowledge of a super-secret but devastating scandal that is soon to go public re: Sestak. I personally think the owners of this site should bar him from posting this unsubstantiated crap. I can’t even imagine that anyone with knowledge of this alleged scandal would entrust knowledge of it to a blowhard like David, and I also can’t imagine that they would tolerate him alluding to it over and over again. Unless David has the goods and is willing to spill it I think he is engaging in slander. Why Politicspa tolerates this escapes me. It is beyond irresponsible. Unsubstantiated rumor-mongering should have no place here.

  28. If it plays out like 2008, she’ll need PA in the spring because so many Democrats desperately don’t want her to be their candidate yet don’t see any viable alternative. Sanders is getting traction with the hardcore left but he’s no Obama in terms of charisma and broad appeal.

    And isn’t it just a shame that whatever Kathleen Kane had to do to get Bill’s endorsement was all for nothing?

  29. At this point I would be very surprised if Hillary Clinton is still even in the race when the Pa.Primary comes around, but I do know I will not vote for her in either the Primary or the General. I know many other progressives who feel as I do. It seems the Democratic Party never tires of trying to force faux Democrats down our throats, and more and more progressives have decided not voting is preferable to voting for people like Clinton and Casey.
    If rumors that Gore is considering running are true I may well support him, but for now, GO Bernie!!!

  30. I bet Kathleen Kane wishes she ran everything off a server in her basement and then had it destroyed by a private firm.

  31. David: Did you order a Clinton scandal/event? One scandal/event coming up…! What has transpired thus far is merely an appetizer…

  32. Hillary will not win any states. She will not even by the nominee. You think Kane has problems.

  33. Hillary wins the Route 309 counties from Philly to Scranton, Centre County along with Allegheny and Erie. game over

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