As the Keystone State prepares for the 2024 U.S. Senate race between three-term Democrat Bob Casey Jr. and a yet-to-be-determined Republican challenger, PoliticsPA took a look at the last three Senate elections in the Commonwealth.
We compared the vote totals for the 2016 contest between Pat Toomey and Katie McGinty, the 2018 race between Casey and Lou Barletta, and the most recent election between John Fetterman and Mehmet Oz.
If one of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties voted for the Republican candidate two or three times – the county was shaded in red. If the county leaned Democrat in a majority of the elections – the county was shaded in blue.
Six counties have voted for the winner in each of the last three Senatorial contests – Bucks, Centre, Chester, Dauphin, Erie, and Northampton counties.
updated to correct number of counties that have accurately picked all three races is six.
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3 Responses
Hard to see Casey losing in 2024. He is not the charismatic person like his father, but he has been solid and has won solidly. Was 56-42 in 2018 against a MAGA. 54-44 in 2012, and 58-41 over Santorum.
Bucks Co also voted for the winner in all three, FYI. That’s six counties.
Typically campaigns identifies the base voters – deep blue or deep red voters – and knows winning depends on getting those voters with lighter shades of red and blue, as well as purple voters – of which there are arguably fewer today than in years past. The US Senate race in 2024 will be very dependent on the top of the ticket.