Human Events/Gravis Poll: McCord With Biggest Lead Over Corbett

Gov. Corbett
Gov. Corbett

A poll conducted by Gravis Polling and commissioned by conservative group Human Voices showed 41% of registered Republicans would prefer a different candidate than Governor Tom Corbett.

Just 38% of Republicans said they would prefer Corbett to be their nominee.

His only potential primary opponent at this time is Bob Guzzardi, who lost to Corbett in a head to head poll: 23% to 42%.

“The Democratic ticket is unknown and they have the wrong vision for the future of Pennsylvania, openly calling for tax increases and more government spending,” Corbett spokesman Billy Pitman told Human Voices.

This portion of the poll surveyed 956 registered Republicans in Pennsylvania.

In a separate survey, Gravis polled 717 registered voters in the state. Of those, 60% said Corbett did not deserve reelection, compared to his 53% approval rating among GOP voters.

They polled three hypothetical match-ups against Corbett: Rep. Allyson Schwartz, State Treasurer Rob McCord and former Revenue Secretary Tom Wolf. All three beat Corbett.

McCord came out on top, beating Corbett by 12 points: 48% to 36%.

Schwartz beat Corbett by 9 points: 44% to 35%.

Wolf came in third amongst the Democrats, but still toppled Corbett: 41% to 34%.

Each of the candidates trumped a Guzzardi matchup with equal margins: McCord beat him by 12, 43% to 31%. Schwartz beat him by 9, 42% to 33% and Wolf beat him by 8, 38% to 30%.

Gravis gave the results at +/- 3% margin of error. This is the same polling group that showed Art Halvorson closing the gap in the primary with Rep. Bill Shuster (R-Blair). Gravis Marketing is a new polling firm that leans Republican and was accused by several liberal blogs during the 2012 presidential election of ineffective techniques and inaccurate results.

Also running for governor but not included in the poll are former DEP Secretaries Katie McGinty and John Hanger, Allentown Mayor Ed Pawlowski, minister Max Myers and Lebanon County Commissioner Jo Ellen Litz.

 

24 Responses

  1. Eric Bradway Former Lower Merion Constable will win the Democratic nomination for Governor against Corbett

  2. Tom Corbett has won three state-wide elections. Do not count him out. If Mr. Guzzardi gets on the ballot for the Primary, he could win.
    If Corbett runs unopposed, the test will be the drop-off vote between his numbers and the other Republicans on the ballot. A large drop-off will confirm his weakness in his own party.

    Watch for Jim Gerlach to replace Corbett after the Democrat challenger has been nominated. An interesting poll at this point would be the D’s against Gerlach, state-wide.

  3. Forgetting the General Election for a second:

    Sitting PA @GovernorCorbett only beats primary challenger @BobGuzzardi by 42% to 23%. Leaves 35% on the table!

    OM freakin G !!!

  4. CasablancaPA is a most informative and well sourced site. The failure of AG Corbett to fid any wrongdoing in the Senate is not what many of us expected and many think Sam Smith skated from his complicity in the $10,000,000 which he signed but does not seem to know how it was paid for.

  5. Robert-
    What is surrealistic is your idea that there is any interest in Bob running (except from Dems looking for one more voice criticizing Corbett, that reminds people of how bad the GOP agenda could be with a second term).

    Before you get excited about Bob polling 23%, you should be sure that it’s actually a higher number than not naming Bob at all.

    Does PA GOP state committee make endorsements? If so, let’s see how many votes Bob gets. I suspect you will be able to count the number of votes on your thumbs and still be able to hitchhike and pull-out-a-plum from a pie.

  6. @ DD [aka “Windbag”] & Rob:

    DD, your follow-up comment is a bit less surreal, and it illustrates that Guzzardi is tapping into GOP-discontent successfully.

    Rob, your effort to generalize based upon an anecdote does not compute.

    Both of you, why not try supplanting your reflex-scorn with a touch of open-mindeness?

  7. The so-called “principled conservatives” will fold when presented with something to benefit themselves. Let’s take Ana Puig for one example. The extremely outspoken founder of a very conservative Bucks County Kitchen Table Patriots/Tea Party group. She’s been very quiet recently, especially about Corbett, I wonder why. Oh yeah, about a year ago she decided to abandon her “principled conservative” cause in Bucks County and take a political job as Director of Legislative Affairs at Corbett’s Department of Revenue.

    That’s right, an “anti-tax, principled conservative” and outspoken (notoriety she sought of her own free will, and was not thrust upon her) Tea Party activist is in charge of selling the Corbett tax policy (including the gas tax increase) to the legislature. So much for “principled conservatives.”

  8. Robert-
    The 23% Bob got in this poll can be easily attributed to “not Corbett” or “Mickey Mouse” as the opponent. Run the poll with “unnamed Republican” and I bet it yields better than 23%.

    You are living in a fantasy world if you think Bob will have any traction. Voters are already against Corbett’s right wing politics. Adding “tea” isn’t going help the GOP.

  9. @ DD & PAINDY1:

    T’all are in-the-weeds; Guzzardi is now just launching.

    Is it not unbelievable that a guy who hasn’t been campaigning [beyond recruitment of petition-circulators] would do so well in an initial-poll?

    As was noted in the article, even if Guzzardi can’t depend upon the GOP-Establishment, he is rapidly generating a “west coast swing” itinerary, to be implemented in a month.

    Guzzardi likes Casablanca-PA and deeply respects the info that flows therefrom; that said, it’s unclear your accusations yield invariably to condemning Corbett.

    Guzzardi also plans to attend the State Committee meeting, this weekend @ Hershey Lodge; assuredly, a good time will be had by all!

  10. The Great Truth Teller Signor Ferrari of Casablancapa.com posted late last week his take on the Kane investigation of Corbett. If you haven’t read Ferrari’s post, this one especially is worth reading. Here is an excerpt: It’s still stunning that Corbett’s September 2008 announcement of a “moratorium” on additional charges in the legislative investigation wasn’t met with incredulous howls of mockery.

    In essence, what Corbett had announced was that weeks before Election Day, he was happy to stage a dog-and-pony show of a hearing accusing Democrats (of 272 counts which resulted in acquittals or were dropped), but he didn’t want to influence that same election by charging any Republicans with wrongdoing. Bumsted still thinks it is a dandy policy to suppress negative information about GOP candidates until after Election Day, suggesting “Here’s a novel idea: Kane could publicly announce the report [on the Sandusky case] won’t be released until Nov. 5 regardless of when it’s completed.”

    What made Corbett’s 2008 “moratorium” completely ludicrous – as any reporter who had bothered to read the presentment could’ve told us – was that Corbett was nowhere near prepared to indict a Republican by Election Day 2008. When he announced his “moratorium,” Corbett had not even begun to investigate House Republicans in earnest. It was a month after that announcement that he convened hearings to force House Republicans to comply with subpoenas that the caucus had ignored, with impunity, for a full year.

    So: in 2008, Corbett announced that he didn’t want to politicize an investigation that he’d already irredeemably politicized by announcing charges in an investigation that he hadn’t even begun. Six years later, it’s Kane, who stands a chance of exposing how Corbett’s bungled political maneuvering delayed capture of child rapist for nearly three years, who’s accused of playing politics.

  11. Robert:
    “First, win the nomination on 20 May and defeat a discredited Republican Establishment”

    This is like South Park’s “Underwear Gnomes” business plan
    Step 1) Steal underwear
    Step 2)
    Step 3) Profit !!

    You are kidding yourself that the radical Tea Party politics you and Bob spout have any traction at all in PA, even among the PA GOP. The papers will dismiss you as nuts or tear you apart on your numbers and faulty analysis. County GOP leaders aren’t going to endorse you. They know where the fundraising comes from and who to answer too. Bob has ZERO clout.

    Assuming Bob even gets on the ballot, it will have been without any help from GOP infrastructure and assists and local county conventions. Corbett will win all 67 of the county GOP endorsements, and Bob’s name won’t appear on any party sample ballots.

    Your May 20th “First” step won’t even occur, so all the other steps are moot.

  12. @ DD:

    You continue to predict incorrectly on multiple fronts [notwithstanding your mental-health swipe that, again, would be better to self-direct].

    I would think that editorialists would clamor for Corbett to agree to debate Guzzardi on multiple occasions between March-May, and I suspect multiple organizations [and, perhaps, county-level GOP-entities] would volunteer to sponsor such-events.

    To be provided is the complete text of the e-mail he “blasted” to those who are now pondering the import of this new poll; note that the GOP-Establishment spokespeople failed to challenge its credibility.

    ***

    Tom Corbett has broken his promises to those who voted for him in 2010. Will Corbett’s 2010 voters vote for him again? I think not. I don’t think Republican voters believe anything Tom Corbett says. Fool me once, shame on you; fool me twice, shame on me.
    What has Tom Corbett done other than impose the biggest tax increase in 22 years. Ed Rendell is envious.

    My strategy: First, win the nomination on 20 May and defeat a discredited Republican Establishment and then May 21 to November 4, attack, attack attack as Democrats have never been attacked. Whatever the Democrats want, I don’t. Bipartisan is another word for One Party Rule, bigger government, more expensive government, more spending, more debt, more taxes and more taxes. There is a reason for two parties contending. The Unions versus the Forgotten Taxpayers will be the theme.

    The Democrats, flummoxed by a campaign of ideas, flail into disarray and are defeated November 4. Pennsylvania’s Forgotten Taxpayers are saved.

    They were expecting a soft target like Tom Corbett. What do they do with a candidate centered on the Constitution? They don’t even know what it is. And Democrats can’t be trusted with money. , as they have proven in, Scranton, home of Joe Biden and Bob Casey,

    My platform: My priority is Taxpayer Freedom and Worker Freedom and eliminating automatic paycheck deduction for forced union dues deduction. If unions are so good for workers, why so workers have to be forced to join and forced to pay dues?

    My policy is the Pennsylvania Constitution of limited government and enumerated powers, economic freedom, the rule of law, personal responsibility of the Judeo-Christian ethics. My special interest is The Forgotten Taxpayer who is forced to finance the union and the liberal elitist agenda. Article III, section 1 and 3 of the Pennsylvania Constitution, will be revived.

    Time to end Welfare to the Wealthy insiders connected to the elected and the fiscal recklessness driving Pennsylvania’s Forgotten Taxpayers to bankruptcy, less opportunity to work for something better and a lower standard of living.

    A campaign of ideas and policies will lead Pennsylvania from mediocrity. It will not be easy. It will not be simple. We can do it. Self government means something to some people.

    ***

    So, DD & others, care to critique?

  13. Robert-
    Even if Bob managed to get himself on the ballot, you are wrong to claim:
    “Corbett will have to contend with a series of debate-challenges”

    The only “contending” Corbett would be doing would be “ignoring” a mouse’s pipsqueaks.

    Do you see the way Litz and Myers are being shut out of some debates? Bob would have even less success in getting a debate from Corbett.

    Personally, I’d love to see Bob on the ballot and use his support numbers to gauge the level of untreated mental health care in the state.

    It would be a joke candidacy. I don’t see a lot of people willing to waste their time on Bob unless they view it as a way to help the Dems by distracting Corbett.

  14. correction: “[à la 1/31/1968-LBJ, also]” should be “[à la 3/31/1968-LBJ, also].”

  15. @ DD:

    You write “I don’t believe that Bob will even file or get on the ballot,” but one would think that an experienced politico-blogger would predicate his writings on facts more than beliefs.

    He WILL file, and he WILL sustain any signature-challenge that might be mounted; he will be continuing to “take his show on the road,” including to Western-PA where allies have said they are organizing meetings that will be attended by motivated-petitioners.

    This is a statewide manifestation of a national phenomenon of revulsion against many people in the GOP-elite, and Guzzardi knows “Personnel is Policy” when envisioning how he would orient his efforts; he would work with the legislature [recalling how he assisted “Eich & Mike,” years ago, when no one thought they could beat Brightbill & Jubellier], even as he would “help” them divest their political philosophies of state-union $$$ [as Scott Walker has accomplished in Wisconsin].

    {n.b., This focused intervention, the necessity for which has been thoroughly demonstrated–noting how the State Store Sale and the Pension Reform Time-Bomb still pend–does not entail a broadside against all unions; just as FDR warned against public-employee unions philosophically, Guzzardi would (I believe) recognize the inherent worth of private-sector unions that truly represent the interests of the worker-bee.}

  16. In response to the finding that “Corbett came out ahead 42% to Guzzardi’s 23% and 35% unsure,” [again, recalling that the “unsure” vote would predominantly go to Guzzardi because it is inherently anti-incumbent], let’s note the content of the reaction [beyond the usual confidence-exuding quotations].

    These professional-consultants must have become particularly irked by this observation: “His current effort to ensure that incumbent Republican state legislators have Tea Party-linked primary challengers has the makings of a turn-key campaign organization for a run for governor.”

    Overall, they must contend with a consistent pattern of upside-down polling [“In a separate poll of 717 both Democrat and Republican registered voters, 60% said Corbett did not deserve reelection, compared to his 53% approval rating among GOP voters”]; such data are not conceivably “outliers” when the polling [both of the electorate and of the GOP] has been so consistently poor [and complicated, also, by his not having rejected ObamaCare].

    ***

    After Guzzardi is on the ballot, Corbett will have to contend with a series of debate-challenges, and he will then have to answer for his record [inter alia] of having violated his pledge not to increase taxes; this has been accomplished both by the indirect gas-tax hike [experienced @ the pump] and by the $6.3B increase in debt [a.k.a. “delayed taxation”].

    Corbett will also have to defend his Sandusky-related investigation, as the news can be projected to contain myriad reminders of this scandal [including, of course, KK’s AG-report]; here, his bipartisan audience will be 1/4-million PSU-grads [still recovering from the experience of the death of Joe-Pa within two months after Corbett had fired him…plus all the sanctions].

    I have clamored for a year [regularly, on this website] for Corbett to “come clean” and hold a Christie-like press-conference, but he hasn’t…and now Guzzardi has upstaged his defenders when they had correctly claimed “You can’t beat somebody with nobody.”

    ***

    With these concepts recalled, note that Corbett’s spokesman relied upon a reflex-political posture [““Pennsylvanians will again choose Governor Corbett’s ‘More Jobs, Less Taxes’ agenda over the failed tax-and-spend policies our opponents are adopting out of Washington, D.C.”] rather than trying to counter Guzzardi’s Pennsylvania-focused attack on his taxation-record.

    Charlie Gerow [Guzzardi’s nemesis throughout the years] discounted Guzzardi by claiming Corbett had not broken his promises [““The important thing is that Governor Corbett did what he said he would do: cut state spending, or at least get it under control”]; he neglected to note that state-spending expanded, including payments to rich-entities [Comcast, Penn] that Guzzardi would slash.

    Both Chris Stigall and Professor John Johannes noted that Corbett is various-flavors-of-“bland” [and, not only for this reason, politically-compromised]; overall, one must conclude that Guzzardi now constitutes a force-with-which-to-contend, for there is now little time for Corbett to pull a “Liz Cheney” and announce suddenly that external concerns have necessitated that he drop-out [à la 1/31/1968-LBJ, also].

    ***

    Finally, reference must be made to the TEA [“Taxed Enough Already”] Party Movement, for the proper conceptualization to employ is that the focus is upon being fiscal conservatives who emphasize individual responsibility and the need for limited-government to abide by a Constitution that isn’t subject to activist-interpretation.

    For example, Guzzardi emphasizes, when probed regarding his social policies, that “Gay people need jobs, too!”; without being a Bible-thumper, he manifests the Judeo-Christian Ethic; he concludes “Out of nowhere, against all odds, Guzzardi is within striking distance of Corbett. There is no reason to think that the 35% undecided will change their minds about Corbett. The nomination is Guzzardi’s to lose.” The Republican Establishment is cold with fear.”

    Thus, in the mold of other GOP-Governors who rose to prominence as successful businessmen, Guzzardi promises to capture the mind/heart of the GOP-core voter, particularly those who want to recruit an army of reformers to combat the Statism of the Dems; frankly, I salivate when envisioning how Corbett will defend his record against an avalanche of documented-critique.

  17. In response to publication of this poll, and after having provided the author of this piece an extensive backgrounder Sunday-p.m., I note he has counterbalanced his data-presentation by quoting from the GOP-Establishment; after having ID’ed the gravamen of this piece, their assertions will be addressed.

    “In the poll of 956 registered Republican voters, 41 percent said they would prefer a new GOP candidate for governor and 38 percent said they prefer Gov. Thomas W. Corbett, said Doug Kaplan, the president of Gravis Marketing, a Florida-based polling company. The poll has a 3 percent margin of error.”

    Inasmuch as Guzzardi’s name-recognition is dwarfed by that of Corbett, this ‘graph is perhaps the most instructive; it takes into account the human-behavior of having opted for Guzzardi or having chosen anyone-else while manifesting an anti-Corbett mindset.

  18. @ DD:

    I mistakenly called you a “blowhard” when, in actually, you have proven yourself to be a “windbag.”

    Apologies.

  19. @ DD:

    Guzzardi has accrued dozens of people statewide who will be circulating his petition; when you define him as a “blowhard,” therefore, might your characterization actually be self-referential?

    Anyone who doubts his sincerity and preparation for this task is invited to visit http://www.thelibertyblog.org; he has compiled multiple observations over the years, along with a complete analysis of every bill on which every legislator voted.

    And anyone who wishes to read my compilations of his writings is invited to read my stuff on Facebook [c/o scribd] and/or to acquire it directly via e-mail [rsklaroff@gmail.com].

  20. This poll is even a bigger reason why the Dems should have a open primary for Gov. Nobody dislikes a top down mandate type of endorsement more than the voters. With all of the great candidates why not let the people decide. Unite the party behind a open primary and dont look back until victory in November.

  21. No surprise that McCord beat Corbett by a bigger margin in the poll than Schwartz.

    I would have liked to see the rest of the Democratic field in the poll. Given the wide margin that the three Dems selected beat Corbett, it’s a good bet that any of the candidates could beat Corbett in a matchup. If the poll is accurate, Dems should feel comforatable pick the candidate they want to be Governor, as electibility is mostly in the bag.
    “60% said Corbett did not deserve reelection”
    and he has only 53% approval among Republicans.

    Bob Guzzardi is not a potential primary opponent. Bob is a windbag who will not even attempt to get on the ballot.

    And, let’s not forget, this is a conservative poll, so Corbett is probably much worse off.

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