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Independents On The Rise In Pennsylvania

In a swing state as important as Pennsylvania, campaigns, operatives and pundits pay close attention to voter registration numbers.

And in a review of the latest data from the Department of State, it is clear that registered voters are opting to have no affiliation at the expense of registering with the Democratic Party.

No affiliation voters have grown by more than five percent (5.19%) since the start of the calendar year, picking up more than 50,000 new registrants.

Compare that to Democrats who have gained a little over 1,300 new registrations or 0.03%. Republicans have fared better, attracting almost 60,000 new registrants – a 1.7% gain since January 1.

Democrats still hold a 371,280 advantage in registrations with 3.89 million, while the GOP trails with 3.52 million. The all-important independent bloc has surpassed the 1.0 million mark while those affiliated with other parties comprise 344,000 of the 8.77 million registered voters in the state.

Looking at the race for the White House, Democrats have only increased their numbers in three of the 12 counties that went for President Joe Biden in 2020 – Philadelphia, Erie and Lackawanna.

Independents outpaced Republican registrations in five of the 12 – Chester, Dauphin, Delaware, Montgomery and Philadelphia.

Counties That Went For Biden 2020 (12)

  • Allegheny (D+19.6) | Dems -794 | GOP +3,858 | Indy +3,689
  • Bucks (D+4.0) | Dems -194 | GOP +3,341 | Indy +2,682
  • Centre (D+5.4) | Dems -75 | GOP +390 | Indy +368
  • Chester (D+16.8) | Dems -925 | GOP +1,858 | Indy +2,724
  • Dauphin (D+7.1) | Dems -433 | GOP +1,109 | Indy +1,525
  • Delaware (D+25.9) | Dems -1,088 | GOP +741 | Indy + 2,224
  • Erie (D+1.5) | Dems +461 | GOP +1,244 | Indy +656
  • Lackawanna (D+7.0) | Dems +295 | GOP +1,279 | Indy +749
  • Lehigh (D+7.5) | Dems -131 | GOP +2,086 | Indy +1,649
  • Monroe (D+4.8) | Dems -9 | GOP +1,038 | Indy +803
  • Montgomery (D+25.2) | Dems -2,397 | GOP +2,794 | Indy +3,529
  • Philadelphia (D+66.1) | Dems +1,864 | GOP +4,646 | Indy +9,392

 

Republicans That Went For Trump In 2020 by Less Than 10% (2)

  • Berks (R+7.5) | Dems +430 | GOP +2,028 | Indy +1,759
  • Northampton (R+0.1) | Dems -1 | GOP +1,868 | Indy +1,365

 

(+/- #) increase/decrease in voter registrations since January 1

 

Since the turn of the calendar, the GOP has seen nearly 31,000 Democrats and 18,000 others switch affiliations to Republican, while Democrats have attracted nearly 11,000 GOP and 15,000 others to its party affiliation – a change of approximately 23,000 voters.

Prior to the last presidential election, Republicans picked up an additional 11,000 new voters in the cycle. While that figure remained constant in 2021, it leaped markedly to 40,000 in 2022 and 22,000 a year ago.

The map below shows each of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties with party registrations for both major parties as well as those not affiliated with any political party.

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