Is it time to hold the phone on the “Smith surge”? A poll commissioned by the Philadelphia Inquirer shows Sen. Bob Casey with a strong lead over Republican challenger Tom Smith.
48 percent of poll respondents chose the freshman Democratic Senator; 38 percent chose Smith.
The survey of 600 likely voters was conducted from Oct. 4-8 and has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percent.
From the Inquirer:
Jeffrey Plaut, leader of Global Strategy Group, the Democratic half of the Inquirer polling team, said that while the race “has definitely tightened,” Casey still appeared “in good shape to win.”
Adam Geller, of National Research Inc., the Republican half, saw Casey’s support as soft and said history shows that a majority of undecided voters – 14 percent, as of now – are apt to tilt to the challenger in the end. He said that Smith still had a chance and that “the ball can take funny bounces.”
Smith has closed the gap in recent weeks. Where once he trailed Casey by double digits, an average of polling by Real Clear Politics (which doesn’t yet include the Inky’s numbers) show the Senator ahead by 5.8 points.