A week after an internal poll from Jim Bognet showed the Republican with a slender lead in the 8th Congressional District, another internal poll is out and gives Democrat Matt Cartwright a six-point advantage.
The poll – conducted by GQR Research – is based on survey of 500 likely voters and was taken on August 2-9. The margin of error is +/- 4 percentage points.
The internal survey asked two questions – 1) would you support a generic Democrat or generic Republican; 2) would you support Matt Cartwright or Jim Bognet?
In the generic question, the Democratic candidate edged the GOP candidate, 49-48. The second question found Cartwright, the three-term Congressman, extend that lead to six points at 52-46. It is also significant, given that former President Donald Trump carried the District in 2020 by three points.
Cartwright has already aired $415,000 in TV spots in the general election cycle according to AdImpact. Bognet released his first general-election ad on Tuesday, warning that his opponent votes with President Joe Biden 100 percent of the time.
There is a significant difference in the candidates’ war chests. Cartwright had $2.73 million cash on hand as of the end of June, while Bognet sported just above $580,000.
The race is considered a toss-up by three different national prognosticators – Sabato’s Crystal Ball at the University of Virginia Center for Politics, the Cook Political Report, and FiveThirtyEight.com.
The analysts at FiveThirtyEight give the pollster an overall B grade.
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One Response
So many things are different than the last election. Trump is not on the ballot. Roe was reversed as law of the land. The top of the ticket for R’s with Senate and Governor is very weak. Cartwright by 5% is believable. Bognet has run a bland campaign playing his greatest hits from the last campaign in 2020 his campaign is stale.