Internal Poll: Shapiro Leads Zappala in AG Dem Primary

Josh ShapiroIt sure looks like Josh Shapiro is running for Attorney General next year.

That’s the conclusion one gets when reading an internal memo prepared for the Montgomery County Commissioner.

As reported by Thomas Fitzgerald of the Inquirer, a poll was conducted for Shapiro by Global Strategy Group. They believe Shapiro will benefit from his SEPA roots in the 2016 Democratic primary.

“Josh holds an initial lead in the race based on his greater statewide name recognition anchored by his stature in the Philadelphia media market,” they write. “While a majority of the electorate is still undecided due to its unfamiliarity with all the candidates, we are in a strong position to aggressively introduce Josh given our $1.4 million dollars cash-on-hand and the finance team’s recent projections to raise $2-$3 million more.”

While a majority, 51%, of respondents are undecided the survey gave us our first look at the next year’s Democratic primary.

Josh Shapiro received 18% while Pittsburgh DA Stephen Zappala (we broke the news that he was running yesterday) came in second with 16%. Rounding out the field were: Northampton County DA John Morganelli (8%), Pittsburgh attorney Dave Fawcett (4%) and former federal prosecutor Jack Stollsteimer (3%).

Shapiro’s advantage comes in large part from being from the Philadelphia area and having a higher name ID than his potential opponents.

Finally, the memo argued for making the Commissioner’s executive experience a central tenant of a Shapiro campaign.

Global Strategy Group surveyed 802 likely voters from November 19th to 23rd. The margin of error is +/- 3.5%.  

December 10th, 2015 | Posted in Front Page Stories, Harrisburg, Top Stories | 24 Comments

24 thoughts on “Internal Poll: Shapiro Leads Zappala in AG Dem Primary”

  1. eagleswing says:

    NB: Zap had minimal trial experience before being handed the DA job ‘by appointment’ due to politicos putting pressure on judges in Allegheny County who held the appointment power. Zap’s office staff, mostly very experienced assistants, is responsible for ” successfully convicted hundreds of criminals from drug dealers, to corporate fraudsters to corrupt officials.” Zap himself does not appear in court. admittedly, to our knowledge in W PA, Zap as DA has not quashed or derailed prosecutions of politically connected people , the way that some former DAs did. (Zap could have deep fixed the Orie crime family prosecution the same way Corbett’s AG did, so that’s to Zap’s credit.) it’s not so much to Zap’s credit that somehow his entire investigative unit staff was ‘moved’ to a faraway building owned by his family in the suburbs of Pittsburgh. I’d like to know more about why this long term lease between the County and his family is not a blatant conflict of interest? (or at least should have been disclosed?) so: Shap vs. Zap: we’ll watch this one carefully.

  2. HaHaHa says:

    The more I hear about Fina and Eakin, the more likely it is that I vote Kane.

    This thing needs to be seen through. There will be more benefit to this PA HOUSE CLEANING than any single prosecution the AG can undertake.

  3. David Diano says:

    Isaac L-

    I copied/pasted that from the PolticsPA story above, which does say “tenant” instead of “tenet”. I didn’t even notice. Good catch.

    BTW, I took a closer look at the very loaded poll questions:

    A candidate with executive leadership experience who has successfully passed ethics reforms in state and local government 61%
    A candidate with experience as a prosecutor 36%

    This question is so biased toward picking the “executive” option that the result is completely worthless. Josh should ask for his money back, or just have made up the numbers himself.

    A “fair” and more balanced question would have Josh against:
    An experienced prosecutor who has successfully convicted hundreds of criminals from drug dealers, to corporate fraudsters to corrupt officials.

    If Josh is relying on poll questions like this, he is going to be quite shocked when the other candidates start listing their resumes.

    The only way these poll results could be more misleading in pumping up Josh’s expectations would be if the surveys were conducted exclusively as people were exiting synagogues.

  4. idratherbefishingwithric says:

    @ISIS You sound like a really nice person.

  5. beentheredonethat says:

    any of u knucklheads wonder why gsg doesn’t release the kane numbers…do u really think they did a poll and didn’t test kane?

  6. Isaac L. says:

    David Diano – does it actually say “tenant” in the original? Seems it should be “tenet”.

  7. Passing Through says:

    Shapiro has integrity? Ha! Integrity is running for office with no intention of keeping the job? Integrity is financial shell games to mask the real issues? Integrity is announcing the day after the election that you intend to raise taxes?

  8. ISIS says:

    We need a Hanging AG in PA someone who knows how to rip a Criminals Throat out .

  9. Watcher says:

    Shapiro seems to be this cycles’ Patrick Murphy. Neither is an active attorney and both seem to want the office mainly as a stepping stone to run for Governor. Sad.

  10. David Diano says:

    One other point: it’s an internal poll, and we don’t know how loaded the questions are.

    The summary memo reads like an advertisement for Josh, rather than an analysis. It seems like something a campaign would draft itself to make the case for Josh. Did the poll “leak” to Fitzgerald? (Or walked over and placed in his hands by Josh himself? )

    The cash on hand info (transfer from his commissioner race cash) gives the other candidates both a goal and a threat/warning. (It’s also a good start for a gov run.)

    Without the actual questions and breakdowns (and methodologies selecting participants), it’s really hard to evaluate the poll.

    Questions:
    1) what does a poll like this cost?
    2) how was it paid for? Is there an exploratory committee filed with the state?

    It looks pretty opportunistic to run a polls for a new job before the your new four year election win has been certified and before you’ve been sworn in again.

  11. David Diano says:

    “Finally, the memo argued for making the Commissioner’s executive experience a central tenant of a Shapiro campaign.”

    Josh’s executive experience is more relevant for Gov or running a company than Attorney General.

    If Josh is the Dem nominee, then in a general election, the GOP candidate is going to spend $1 million advertising: “Does Pennsylvania need an Attorney General with less courtroom experience than Kane?”

    It will be devastating to Josh and the Dems. I like Josh, but this is a bad career move that will likely kill his momentum of winning streaks, and hurt him running for Gov down the line.

    I’m hoping he gets better people to give him career advice than the ones he is currently listening to.

  12. SWEPTWEST says:

    Shapiro loses for sure after he does not win one county west of the Susquehanna. Sound familiar???

  13. Wait, what ? says:

    Wake up people. The office is Attorney General it means an attorney with general wing broad based experience. Shapiro has Zero-I repeat, Zero experience as a lawyer. Never a prosecutor. Never practiced law of any kind. Ask yourself, if you needed a lawyer, would you retain Shapiro to represent you? In any capacity? Of course the answer is no because he’s not qualified. I don’t care how much Wolfe loves him or how much $ he can raise. He will get smoked in the primary. In fact, although he’s well known in the SE, word is that Zappala already locked down Phila.

  14. Montco PA Dem says:

    Frank Fina had prosecutorial experience. Tom Corbett had prosecutorial experience. I really don’t think voters in PA are all that impressed by it these days. In fact, it seems to be something we might want to stay away from.

  15. Larry says:

    HaHaHa = Pat Unger = Ellen Granahan

  16. HaHaHa says:

    Pericles = Zappala

  17. Pericles says:

    Shapiro is a decent guy, the problem with him though is that he has no prosecutorial experience. The position of Attorney General is not a political position, rather it is a position that requires experience and skill. Although Shapiro was a legislator and now a county executive, these positions are clearly political and require no specific experience or skill. One of the problems with the current AG is that she had extremely little prosecutorial experience (albeit more than Shapiro) and you see where that has gotten her. Politicians do not make the best prosecutors because their decisions to prosecute or not are based upon politics and not whether a crime has been committed and can be proven. For the sake of all Pennsylvanians, as well as all those attorneys in the AG’s office, PLEASE lets not elect another politician to the post!!!

  18. Larry says:

    Guzzardi, you’re a joke. Nobody takes you seriously. And when you say things about Stephens have limited prosecutorial experience, you underscore how little you know. Do you have a chaperone to guide you through the day when you leave your group home? I wonder how you avoid injuring yourself out of sheer stupidity.

  19. bobguzzardi says:

    With incompetent, self-serving losers Rob Gleason and Bob Asher running the statewide Pennsylvania party, it is an all but given that next Attorney General of Pennsylvania will be a Democrat.

    As far as I know, John Morganelli has no ambitions to be AG. I don’t what ambitions Stephen Zappala has but it is clear that the Josh Shapiro thinks the AG’s office is the path to the governor’s office. Josh Shapiro has an excellent public relations operation to promote him.

  20. bobguzzardi says:

    What are Josh Shapiro’s law enforcement credentials to be the chief law enforcement officer of Pennsylvania?

    Both 5 term Allegheny County DA Stephen Zappala and 7 term Northampton DA John Morganelli have not only prosecutorial experience but experience in administering an office of prosecutors.

    John Rafferty and Todd Stephens have very, very limited prosecutorial experience and no administrative experience of any kind.

    I am not aware that John Morganelli has any skeletons; Stephen Zappala seems to have many,many questionable crony connections.

  21. Jen Iddles says:

    This is all gonna be about integrity. Nobody can match up with Josh on that. From what I hear, Gov. Wolf will go to the wall for Josh. Really hard to the wall. In a Democratic primary that will matter a lot.

  22. Whistleblower says:

    Baby Josh crying already. I love it. !! Zappala will smoke anyone. Wolf gives Josh a made up Crime Commission to play with and he still won’t get out of the South East. Lmfao

  23. Pat Unger says:

    Anybody but Zapalla !!

  24. The Lost Dutchman says:

    Morganelli is from Northampton County, not Montgomery.

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