Is Biden’s Popularity Slide Having an Impact With PA Voters?

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The presidential approval rating. 

The share of Americans who approve of the job he is doing. Also the number that could determine the fate of the entire presidency.

Is it having an effect on Pennsylvania voters? It appears that way.

FiveThirtyEight’s daily average of polls has President Joe Biden’s nationwide approval rate at 41.7 percent. On the flip side, 53.3 percent disapprove of the job Biden is doing.

According to data from the PA Department of State, 899 Democrats changed their party registration to Republican, while just 206 GOP voters changed their registration to Democrat during the week ending January 24. 

From January 1-24, 2,553 Pennsylvania Democrats changed their affiliation to Republican and 763 Republicans changed to Democrats. A significant number of Pennsylvania voters also turned their back on both major parties, as 1,689 Republicans and Democrats changed their registration to another party or not affiliated.

Those snapshots are consistent with what’s been happening over the last year in Pennsylvania. While registrations for both parties are down compared with November 2020, Democrats are down more:

November 2020

  • 9.090 million registered voters
  • 4.229 million Democrats 
  • 3.543 million Republicans 
  • 1.319 million Others or not affiliated 

January 24, 2022

  • 8.725 million registered voters in Pennsylvania
  • 4.014 million Democrats (down 215,000) 
  • 3.423 million Republicans (down 120,000)
  • 1.287 million Others or not affiliated (down 32,000)

Nationally, a recent Gallup poll showed that more U.S. adults identify as Democrat versus Republican (46-43). However, the full-year average indicated a shift from a nine-percentage-point Democrat advantage in the first quarter to a five-point Republican edge in the fourth quarter.

As for Biden’s 41.7 percent approval rating, here’s how it compares with other presidents at the same point of their term (day 373):

54.4 – Bill Clinton

52.1 – Jimmy Carter

48.6 – Barack Obama

47.2 – Ronald Reagan

41.7 – Joe Biden

38.8 – Donald Trump

 

How does the 53.3 disapproval rate compare?

56.2 – Donald Trump

53.3 – Joe Biden

45.9 – Barack Obama

41.7 – Ronald Reagan

33.1 – Bill Clinton

28.0 – Jimmy Carter

 

Note: Neither Bush 41 nor 43 is included as the Iraq war and the 9/11 attacks skewed the figures.

 

4 Responses

  1. I appreciate the analysis but the change is distinctions without a difference. A few thousand go R and a few hundred go D. In a statewide race where millions vote who cares? Where are the changes happening? Is a state rep or state senate candidate or congressional candidate getting these new party switch registrations? That matters. US Senate with Dr Ozzie is so celebrity driven that party switching there makes no difference. Ozzie is a lightweight and the gaffe prone Lt Gov Fetterman’s best chance to win.

      1. Here’s grunt-work based upon review of 9/10 hearing transcripts/attachments.

        htt ps://w ww.scri bd.co m/document/508103846/Election-Review-IV

  2. *Skewed the figures? Handling foreign and internal crises is part of the job. Don’t be a partisan hack and put them all in here.

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