It’s a conundrum for many. As Donald Trump’s poll numbers proceed to sink, Republicans nonetheless continue posting voter registration gains in key states.
“Party registration can often be a lagging, rather than leading, indicator,” Wasserman explains. “Examining the trends in these states under a microscope reveals that what’s happening is more a mix of party switching, natural replacement and removal of inactive Democratic voters from the rolls than a feverish Trump effort to expand the electorate.”
Wasserman tracked the ninety counties in Florida, Pennsylvania and North Carolina where there’s been a more than 5% change in voter registration stats. He found that the GOP voter share in eighty-eight of those counties still trails Romney’s 2012 performance.
“Overall, the Keystone State is a bit of a mixed bag so far,” Wasserman concludes. “Come November, the wave of party-switching could prove meaningful in places where Clinton still has a lot of room to fall from Obama’s 2012 showings, like Wilkes-Barre and Johnstown. But usefully, Pennsylvania also breaks down new registrations by party — and among voters freshly added to the rolls in 2016, Democrats are outpacing Republicans 201,330 to 159,293.”