Kane Poll: Kane Leads Freed 48 to 27

Kathleen Kane has emerged from her contested primary with momentum, a poll conducted by her campaign shows. She leads Republican Dave Freed 48 percent to 27 percent.

The poll reflects an enormous name ID advantage for Kane, who two weeks ago won a high-profile primary with former Bucks County Congressman Patrick Murphy.

“Sometimes, candidates emerge from a primary stronger, not weaker, and that’s clearly the case with Kathleen,” said Campaign Manager Sadie Sterner.  “Pennsylvanians see Kathleen as a qualified, independent prosecutor and they’re intrigued by the prospect of electing the first female major party nominee for Attorney-General in Pennsylvania history.

A former prosecutor from Lackawanna County, Kane defeated Murphy in the Democratic primary on April 24. The two had engaged in a pitched television battle, each spending easily over $1 million.

As the first woman nominated to run for the office, Kane also earned a wide array of positive press before and especially after her primary win. No Democrat has won the office since it went up for election in 1980, so Kane would make history on that count, too.

Kane has strong support – albeit with room to grow – within her party. Kane has the support of 72 percent of Democratic voters, compared to 7 percent of Dems for Freed and 21 percent undecided.

“Kane has emerged from the hotly-contested Democratic primary election with a unified base of support among Democrats. Kane is also leading among independent voters not registered with  either party,” the pollsters wrote in their memo.

Freed, the District Attorney of Cumberland County, was unopposed for most of his primary. Republicans received a mail piece that included his name and little else in the way of paid voter contact.

Freed’s Campaign Manager Tim Kelly dismissed the poll.

“Ms. Kane spent more than $2 million of her family’s fortune to win a Democratic primary and still internally polls under 50% against a Republican who has not spent a dime? Anyone who has an entry-level understanding of campaigns and polling would not be reassured by these numbers,” he said.

As with any internal poll, take the results with a grain of salt. But a slightly smaller grain than before. An internal poll Kane’s camp released a week before the primary accurately showed her with a lead over Murphy: 42 to 33 percent, with 25 percent undecided. The final results of the election were Kane 52.8 percent, Murphy 47.2 percent.

Pollsters Brad Chism and Traci Copeland of Zata 3 surveyed 916 voters via interactive voice response (IVR) technology on April 30 and May 1. The margin of error is +/- 3.24% at a 95% confidence level. The sample is limited to individuals who own home phones.

11 Responses

  1. Big primary fights more often help the eventual party winner: Obama vs Hillary Clinton, Casey vs Rendell for Governor, Kane vs Murphy. Why the PA Republican party tries to avoid primary battles and thus not trust the voters is beyond me.

  2. Just one more example of how inept the Republican Party in PA is and has been. With members such as “bobguzzardi” what Republican needs enemies?

  3. “Checks and Balances” where have we heard that before?

    Ryan D. Barnes: FYI this is very bad news for Freed. As a generic Republican, he has a slow start and when Neil Oxman, who knows how to do negative, goes to work, Dave Freed will not move.

    Dave Freed is carrying a lot of baggage.

    Maybe Neil Oxman should reach out to Jeff Jubelirer who has some insights on the Altoona voter.

  4. Why is this good news for Kane? Freed has not spent a dime and is already at 27% even in her own poll and she has spent millions. If I’m a Freed advisor, I’m delighted to be here having run no campaign at all.

  5. You are correct Bob and Dave. People want Kathleen in there because people believe in checks and balances. Kane has bold vision for the office which is inspiring.

  6. Kane’s ads were mostly positive ones about herself and nicely done. Hopefully, this made a lasting early impression on the voters, and they will reject negative ads from Freed, the same way they rejected Murphy’s negative ads.

  7. If the Democrats do not screw this up by going negative against Tea Party, they can win.

    “Ending One Party Rule” is a powerful message to Tea Party which is burdened by Republican State Committee’s incompetence and arrogance.

    “Independent of Union Leadership” is another powerful theme. AG is supposed to protect workers,not unions.

    “Independent of Party Leadership” of Both Parties… compelling, in my opinion.

    Tom Corbett’s Man Dave Freed carries some very heavy baggage; the child rapist and serial child molester Jerry Sandusky and LeRoy Zimmerman and the looting of the Hershey Trust’s disadvantaged kids which. in my view, is financial child abuse.

    and can we forget Senate’s Bonusgate non-investigation. I sure would like to know what is in those files.

  8. Primary challenges build momentum and interest as compared to the knighting in the endorsement process.

    The AG race in the Democratic Primary drew the most interest (most votes cast). Kane received a lot of press and exposure in the primary building momentum going into the fall.

    The endorsement process takes away early interest and early momentum building. Freed lost that early exposure and momentum by being endorsed and Rafferty not running.

  9. I know that the PA Primary for Attorney General was contentious, but I voted for Murphy — Not because of any ill feeling toward Kane (quite the opposite, actually, I like her very much), but because Murphy led the charge in the House to repeal Don’t Ask, Don’t Tell, which was an important issue to me. Patrick Murphy wasn’t successful, but I have no problem swapping out my Murphy bumper sticker for a Kane bumper sticker. She’s a fantastic candidate, an informed and compassionate person (I’ve met her on several occasions), and I’ll be proud to cast my vote for her for Attorney General. I think a lot of people that voted for Murphy, if not the overwhelming majority of them, feel the same way. I’d like to wish her luck and support! 🙂

  • Who Will Be Speaker of the PA House on February 28?

    • Joanna McClinton (68%)
    • Mark Rozzi (27%)
    • A Republican TBD (5%)

    Total Voters: 315

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